I also think the third option is the most likely. Still I think LEO can withstand much better than the rest of SE tokens since is creating a new ecosystem and it is also playing greatly with the scarcity creation.
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That looks like how things stands at the moment. But still this is all so new, some event, a big name coming in can make a big difference. This is true for STEEM, and for the tokens everything is on steroids :)