It's good to see your TA analysing the correlation between the US presidential election and Bitcoin performance. Yes, as we all appreciate in the cryptosphere the 4 year cycle is very important and it has been 5 months since the last halving. Where I slightly disagree with your angle is that I truly believe US presidential elections influence Bitcoin movements more than you recognise. They certainly did in both the 2016 and 2020 US elections.
I recently published a post on this exact issue which forced me to go back and check BTC performance in 2016 and 2020, during the last US general election cycles. I checked price fluctuations in extensive detail and it was quite revealing.
Let's be honest since 2016 US presidential elections have been bigger news than the usual run of the mill. From my analysis of 2016 and 2020 what I discovered is that Bitcoin moved in an identical pattern in each of those elections, obviously not involving the same price of course.
In the month directly preceding both 2016 and 2020 elections Bitcoin started to move vertically. As we moved closer to the actual election BTC climbed further. Then once the election had concluded Bitcoin continued its vertical move. Within just a few months after the whole election cycle we entered a full blown bull market. The one difference between the two is the 2017 bull happened later than the 2021 bull.
I honestly believe this can not be simply down to coincidence and that given the power and influence of the US economy and its dominance within the global community, particularly its effects on other economies throughout the world, Bitcoin is clearly happier when there is no political uncertainty in America, which is the only remaining superpower in the world. China still has some catching up to do!
However, in the current US election period I fully acknowledge we are not witnessing the exact parallels as we did in 2016 and 2020. But nonetheless there is still a related pattern. The only difference this time is that BTC is gaining strength alright, locking in gains and testing $73k again, but we are not seeing the same type of price climbs as we did in 2016 and 2020. I have been discussing all this on chain for weeks now. Bitcoin's current performance is very impressive alright and it is clearly in a very buoyant mood. It has energy and it is gearing up.
Bitcoin's confidence and vertical price movement can only be viewed as encouraging, but again it needs to be stressed that it is a different type of positive performance. But it doesn't matter, Bitcoin is raring to go it seems.
There is clearly a distinct whiff of bullishness about Bitcoin at the moment. Yes it has pulled back again but this is its current pattern, climb, pull back, climb again then pull back again. It has been doing it for weeks now. But it has made gains for sure and still hovers around the $70k mark at the time of writing this comment.
Bitcoin is waiting for the US presidential election to be over, it wants the uncertainty out of the frame. Perhaps at that point, and if Bitcoin's performance in the previous two election cycles repeat again, we might just see Bitcoin get very excited. And that would be rather lovely, wouldn't it?