Nov 6
Soon the psychological warfare event will be over! I'm speaking of course of life during an election year in a battleground state. I must admit that moving from California, a notoriously devout blue state, to Pennsylvania, has been quite the eye opener. Half a dozen volunteers have knocked my door and I'm not even personally registered (just got another knock while I was writing this post). Those who are registered (especially independent) become assaulted by all manner of communications, from letters to email to a never ending stream of ads to pressure on social media to stress with actual friends and family. What a wild ride!
Focusing on the lies
This close to an election politicians are constantly babbling about following through on actions that they never actually intend on accomplishing. For Harris this was the "tax the rich" nonsense she was spouting a while back. Unrealized taxes in America are not a viable option. She knows it; her administration knows it; their donors know it... and yet she talks up a big game because the children/voters just want to be told what they want to hear. It's the greedy corporations and billionaire's fault that the economy is doing so bad! Notice how nobody even utters this topic anymore because it's shifted out of the limelight.
DEPORT ALL THE ILLEGALS!!!
This is the topic that both the left and the right are focused on at the moment. Trump is out there promising he's going to invoke mass deportations on day one of his administration. This is an obvious lie because such things take a lot of planning and groundwork, and there is no plan, only rhetoric and the empty promise of winning an election.
The democratic backlash to this fake promise is hilarious. They are arguably even worse because they know he's a liar but if the lie happens to fit their own agenda they believe it unquestioningly just like all the other dopes. What does mass deportation look like? How would a Trump administration stop innocents from getting swept up in that net? Would this hurt the economy? Blah blah blah!
You know what they don't ask?
Oh actually is he just bullshitting again literal days before the election?
This is the question that should always be asked but rarely ever does. Nothing a politician says right before voters go to the ballot box should be taken very seriously. After all, there's literally nothing forcing any of them to make good on their promises. If Trump wins he can't even be reelected a third time. Guy can do whatever he wants.
This is one of the reasons why I find DPOS voting so alluring from a theoretical perspective. Not only is the election public, verifiable, and enforced by decentralized encryption, but also when someone backtracks and doesn't deliver they can be voted out immediately rather than after an entire years-long term of disappointment.
You know who doesn't care who wins? Bitcoin doesn't.
The election itself has become a sell-the-news event. It's simply way too hyped up and it doesn't matter to these networks one way or another. Crypto has always thrived in the face of adversity, and taking that adversity away isn't necessarily a good thing. We become complacent. That's how we get a bloated ecosystem full of scams and other garbage.
All of crypto Xitter is experiencing massive tunnel vision right now. There's a common consensus out there that a Trump victory means crypto will moon and Harris doom. It truly does not matter either way. There may be a volatile movement right after the election in whatever direction but it means nothing. These things correct themselves after a couple of weeks. Only a day trader can capitalize on such things, and usually not even then.
Oh look at that speak of the devil!
My news feed is still absolutely cluttered with these midwit takes that crypto will skyrocket on a Trump victory. Friends... Trump doesn't even know what decentralization is. He doesn't know how mining works. He doesn't understand the importance of any of it. This is all lip service. It's embarrassing is what it is. Guy did not have a change of heart, he just realized he could scoop up some single-issue voters.
So how's Bitcoin doing these days?
It's been a very anticlimactic start to November. Just like the start of October. Just like the start of September. It is nice that my prediction played out so perfectly though. I said I expected to be testing $72k by end of month... that's exactly what happened. Now we are dealing with some light rejection after some major short squeezes.
Notice that the price is still riding high compared to all the moving averages, and a return to the 25 DMA might be worth a bid (currently $67k). Then again if Harris wins the election and price absolutely nukes that's probably just free money from a trading perspective. Let's not forget that crypto is a global phenomenon and any world power that rejects it is just another reason for their competitors to embrace it.
I'm not quite sure what my prediction should be for November. On the one hand November is typically one of the most volatile months of all (both up and down). We are still firmly in an uptrend. September monthly candle was up +7% (record high) and October was +11% (lower than average). Everything is lookin pretty good but there are so many wildcards in play. My long remains open.
Conclusion
Politicians do not care about you or your bags. They care about themselves and the cronies that keep them in power. Lying to the public is the standard and there is no way to enforce honor in a system this degraded. Never meet your heroes.
Crypto is an anti-establishment technology. When the establishment pretends to embrace it this is not a good omen, but rather just the next phase of trickery. Stay frosty.
The warfare event won't be over anytime soon. They will drag out the vote counting and attempt to nullify the results or attempt to kill or imprison Trump again.
The writing is on the wall Kamala has about 16% of the actual vote. You can tell by social media. YouTube tried to hide the Joe Rogan podcast with Trump from the search results. Still got 40 Million there and tens of millions more on X. Kamalas best podcast numbers have been about 1.4 Million views.
Everyone knows Kamala is a fraud along with Biden.
Trump isn't going to be able to fix the disaster we are in but they have tried to put the man down for 9 years now. He is still standing!
With RFK Jr and Elon with him as well. Kamala's campaign of Orange Man Bad looks like the weakest thing we have ever seen.
Trump by a landslide but they will try to install Kamala.
I do not believe who is "elected" this round will matter much. They will be blocked by congress on everything.
However, the election will decide which way a lot of things go. Well, mostly the story, about why the things go
Kamala: Everyone sees the writing on the wall and is escaping into bitcoin.
Trump: Bitcoin will soon be recognized as legal currency, and so, it is good to get in early.
and, these will just be stories. Bitcoin doesn't need approval. And those escaping into bitcoin are the same people who have been escaping for a decade now.
I wonder if the story about the bond market collapsing will be bullish for bitcoin? 😝
I immediately realized liquid democracy was the right modern technology to enable just governance of our republic when I first heard of it years ago. The code Hive has proven for years demonstrates this mechanism works. However, it is absolutely against the interests of the political class, as well as large corporations that use lobbying to benefit their bottom line. Expecting American states to adopt secure DPOS voting is like expecting Hive whales to abandon stake based voting to elect witnesses. The people that benefit from the way things are aren't going to change the way things are done.
Here's an adjunct to the headline pic in the OP.
I'll leave it to you and your readers to interpret the meaning of women massively outvoting men in these early returns in swing states.
There is a reason that empires have a lifetime of ~250 years. Pasha Glubb published his analysis and showed that empires just don't last forever, which is why we're all not speaking Akkadian today. Corruption is cumulative. The longer a polity persists, the more deeply corruption infests it's bureaucracy, and the more quickly corruption can be infiltrated into remaining unaffected parts of the bureaucracy. The USA has been more and more deeply corrupted for almost exactly 250 years, and it's hard to deny it's bureaucracy is intolerably corrupt, it's regulatory agencies captured by the industries they were instituted to regulate, it's legislature dependent on lobbyists that fund their campaigns, and it's law enforcement agencies dedicated to protecting the criminals they were proposed to eliminate. Nowhere more than Oregon demonstrates this corruption, with our current state government having been massively funded by funds from FTX and Sam Bankman-Fraud, and stacks of cash from legal drug dealers like La Mota, handed over at parties with negligible and dubious documentation.
All empires rot from within and only become vulnerable to external enemies as a result of the corruption destroying their ability to defend themselves, just like the US Navy seems to be unable to protect Red Sea shipping from one of the poorest and least developed countries in the world, and the Houthis aren't even in control of the whole country [edit: of Yemen].
It's difficult to believe the Pax Americana has much in the way of legs to keep it standing very far into the future. I wish there was any reason to believe otherwise, as an American who will suffer the consequences of the end of the American empire. However, once the gatekeepers of political power have been removed by the end of that empire, the DPOS mechanism will have a chance of being implemented in whatever takes it's place. Hopefully it will, and election fraud and lying politicians will be relegated to the dustbin of history.
Thanks!
I'm glad I don't live in Pennsylvania anymore. Your are correct about all of this. BTC will do what it will regardless of who wins the election.
I am observing the circus via my little
Paradise called Zanzibar! Will be an interesting day ……
If Kamala wins prepare your self to emigrate from USA and for a 3rd world war
I literally hear that "leaving the USA" argument every four years for as long as I can remember.
Bush... Obama... Trump... Biden.
Doesn't matter who or which side: someone thinks they're the literal devil.
It's a distraction.
This is a refreshing take to hear given all of the rhetoric that has even made its way to Hive. I'm getting a bit tired of the false narrative that the only good thing for crypto is a republican win.
I kind of think Trump will win just because it's Clown World rules and he's clearly the biggest clown of all... but yeah this incessant NEEDING him to win as if any of these problems are going away is a bit silly imo. Guy was in office 4 years already.
I totally agree. I'm not making any guesses this time. I thought sure there was no way he would win the time he did. I thought the country was smarter than that and I had more faith in them. I now know how foolish I was and I don't plan on making that same mistake twice!
It's good to see your TA analysing the correlation between the US presidential election and Bitcoin performance. Yes, as we all appreciate in the cryptosphere the 4 year cycle is very important and it has been 5 months since the last halving. Where I slightly disagree with your angle is that I truly believe US presidential elections influence Bitcoin movements more than you recognise. They certainly did in both the 2016 and 2020 US elections.
I recently published a post on this exact issue which forced me to go back and check BTC performance in 2016 and 2020, during the last US general election cycles. I checked price fluctuations in extensive detail and it was quite revealing.
Let's be honest since 2016 US presidential elections have been bigger news than the usual run of the mill. From my analysis of 2016 and 2020 what I discovered is that Bitcoin moved in an identical pattern in each of those elections, obviously not involving the same price of course.
In the month directly preceding both 2016 and 2020 elections Bitcoin started to move vertically. As we moved closer to the actual election BTC climbed further. Then once the election had concluded Bitcoin continued its vertical move. Within just a few months after the whole election cycle we entered a full blown bull market. The one difference between the two is the 2017 bull happened later than the 2021 bull.
I honestly believe this can not be simply down to coincidence and that given the power and influence of the US economy and its dominance within the global community, particularly its effects on other economies throughout the world, Bitcoin is clearly happier when there is no political uncertainty in America, which is the only remaining superpower in the world. China still has some catching up to do!
However, in the current US election period I fully acknowledge we are not witnessing the exact parallels as we did in 2016 and 2020. But nonetheless there is still a related pattern. The only difference this time is that BTC is gaining strength alright, locking in gains and testing $73k again, but we are not seeing the same type of price climbs as we did in 2016 and 2020. I have been discussing all this on chain for weeks now. Bitcoin's current performance is very impressive alright and it is clearly in a very buoyant mood. It has energy and it is gearing up.
Bitcoin's confidence and vertical price movement can only be viewed as encouraging, but again it needs to be stressed that it is a different type of positive performance. But it doesn't matter, Bitcoin is raring to go it seems.
There is clearly a distinct whiff of bullishness about Bitcoin at the moment. Yes it has pulled back again but this is its current pattern, climb, pull back, climb again then pull back again. It has been doing it for weeks now. But it has made gains for sure and still hovers around the $70k mark at the time of writing this comment.
Bitcoin is waiting for the US presidential election to be over, it wants the uncertainty out of the frame. Perhaps at that point, and if Bitcoin's performance in the previous two election cycles repeat again, we might just see Bitcoin get very excited. And that would be rather lovely, wouldn't it?
At least the brainwashing is consistent here in the EU.
Living in a swing state, in a swing county, the political pressure is huge. If you can't beat it, join it - but don't lie, don't compromise, don't invade the space of your neighbor.
They can't control it, but they can infiltrate it and the minds of the people concerning it.
I'm nearing the end of Sinclair's "The Jungle." As it is now, it was then. Nothing has changed in 120 years, except for the human chumps who keep feeding the slavery machine.
Trump is making nearly EXACTLY the same promises this time as he made the last. Harris is following the Democrat party's inflexible and preposterous platform. I cannot stomach it.
We are just waiting for what will play out in the United States this November. Trump was as if he could take the day, but now we can't predict what will be the result
I usually don't vote for either major party candidate in the elections. I certainly don't think either current presidential candidate will have any significant effect on $BTC (or issue X, Y, Z for that matter).
I am mostly of the mindset of Mark Twain - “If voting made any difference they wouldn't let us do it.”
If the election does effect crypto to the downside, my buying will be bigger. If not, my buying will be slow and steady.
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Disclaimer: I have already voted for Harris. Also you know that I live in Houston, TX, A red state, so my vote perhaps matter little.
True for some and not for others. I have seen a lot of good honest politicians at the city, country, school board level. Yes, they are not relevant at the national stage, but no matter the outcome of the election result, I know that many will continue to do their job honestly. I trust them, and they trust some of us back.
This is a remarkably refreshing view, and one I agree with regarding local politics. I live in Oregon, so my vote for President is going to be meaningless no matter who I vote for, but my vote for local politicians and judges, for PUD and county positions, that vote matters a lot to good people that are trying to make sure our local governments meet local needs. I agree that many of them are not just honest folks, they are exemplary people that stand for election for all the very best and right reasons.
Thanks!
I agree. I work in the oil industry and every day people at my work question my loyalty :) As if I can't have a political view that I have while working for big oil. I have told them many times and they now believe it that I can have a different value and still be their friends. We must build bridges to each other and not destroy them.
It's nice that you have hope and experience to the contrary but honestly I'm just not having it right now.
Too jaded I guess. 🤷♂
Maybe I'm supposed to "be the change" or whatever.
Yes. You are jaded and that's okay. No matter how you feel today I have hope that you might feel better tomorrow and I will be looking forward to that.
Lot of the time we stop believing each other just because we have a different view on a topic say bitcoin :) you might believe that BTC will change the world and replace USD and I might think that is not going to happen anytime in my lifetime. That's okay. We can still be friends and have productive conversations. None of us need to be right we just need to hear each other.