I disagree.
Supply and demand are very much the key factors like always.
Of course, OTC trades affect the public valuation of Bitcoin. Bitcoins being drained from exchanges certainly will not cause the price to crash. This is empirically true. The mining reward halvings are what drives the price action of Bitcoin in four-year cycles. The less miners will be dumping on exchanges, the higher the price given constant demand. Demand for BTC exists because fiat is proving to be such a bad store of value and because the world needs a store of value.
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Miners don't "dump" value of Bitcoin by putting too large sell orders, quite the opposite... They try to drive the value higher so they get same amount of FIAT... But because relative value of FIAT has gone down, they don't need to put as large sell orders as when FIAT was stronger.
It's the other traders (people who don't or can't mine) who cause the massive volatility of the Bitcoin as they try to ride the ups and downs and are too impatient to wait for the high and low points.
Miners try and get a high as possible price for their BTC. But at some point they will always have to sell because of their costs.
Bitcoin's value proposition is largely about the supply cap and a stock-to-flow ratio doubling every four years. This has all to do with supply and demand.
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A lot of the times miners sell less than what they mine, because the exchange rate is higher than required... It's only during halving period when the rate usually is less than they need.
Lately when institutions have bought Bitcoin, they have bought it favorable exchange rate as they want to buy as much Bitcoin as possible, so they can't bargain with the exchange rate... Even if they buy solely OTC, the coins are still off the potential amount that would have been sold on exchanges.
A lot of people think it's the highest sell that matters, but real traders know it's the average exchange rate that makes things either profitable or not...
Yep, I agree.