These hive spikes are indeed intriguing !, I have started to dabble in the trade, but I am playing with a much smaller bag ,over a longer timeframe and more simplistically, in that I am using the internal HBD:Swap.Hive LP for my moves.
I've been powering down my HP and since Dec 22nd (my first attempt to catch a spike), I have moved in three tranches, buying HBD for Swap.Hive at a Hive price of $0.37 and $0.46. Getting me 167.73 HBD for 450 Hive, or an average price of $0.373 so far.
Not super sharp, and as you say, the internal market is not so efficient,
Now that I have a base, I'll be more patient and only buy on successively higher spikes, or trade out if Hive drops to $0.25 or below in the interim
I plan to wait out the cycle and buy more HBD on successive spikes over 2025, although if Hive drops significantly, I'll trade back.
The aim is to increase my Hive bag and eventually power it up again, leaving some liquid to play the "spike game"
My trades have not been the sharpest, but it's a learning game and rather fun.
I have parked my HBD with a high sell price, just in case there is a crazy spike while I'm not watching.
It is a good and low risk way of getting into it I reckon. And like you said, once you have a base to play with, larger moves and gains can be made with the same level of risk :)