Before reading this, remember I suck at trading.
However, like all fools, this doesn't stop me from having a go. And last night, before going to bed at about 1 am, I saw that HIVE was looking spiky, so chose to stay up and see if my spidey senses were correct. This time, they were, and forty five minutes later, a green wick was quickly forming.
That is where I chose to stay awake.
As I was writing the other day, one of the challenges with spot trading is being "around" at the right time, because those right times might be pretty rare, and they might be at two in the morning. Because of this, I "set and forget" prices in the hope of catching a spike. However, this has challenges too, because it can trigger far below the peak, or it can be too far above the spike. If watching, it is possible to adjust, if not, too bad. Many, many times I have just missed out on sells (and buys), and many times I have sold well below the peaks.
Because of this conundrum though, what I end up doing is laddering my orders incrementally. This is especially useful if looking to sell larger quantities, because it can increase the sell average. For instance, if hoping to sell 10,000 HIVE (which is a large quantity for me) into a spike with the hope of buying back, you don't want it to sell at the bottom of the spike, rather the top.
But, that top is unknown, so like I had last night, my set sells were spread between 0.41 and 0.495. I wasn't expecting it to go as high as it has, but what this means is that my average sell price was around 0.44. If I had sold it all at where I thought it would go when it was sitting at around 0.33, I would have sold it all around 0.42. But, if I had waited and dropped the lot higher up last night, I could have averaged 47.
My buys didn't trigger.
And this is the next problem, because I was "hoping" that HIVE would fall far lower overnight than it did, and then it has spiked up even higher than last night, without me having bought any back to sell into the second run. Though, I still had a few of my higher sells in place, so despite not buying back, I was still able to increase my sell average a bit further. If it had fallen back, I would have ended up with more Hive, but would have "missed" the opportunity to sell and get even more.
For me at least, laddering has been a good way to manage buys and sells in these spikes, because while I miss the tops and the bottoms with the majority of my trades, the average is likely higher than if I relied on single trades hitting highs and lows. As said, I have missed many, many trades over the years by tine fractions. Like just the other week I missed a trade on HIVE/BTC where it went 0,00000452, and my sell was at 0,00000455 - The buy back would have been 30% lower, but instead, I traded nothing. I should have laddered around where I think it would go, or where I would be happy to sell.
I do the same on the internal market.
However, on the internal Hive market, there is an additional "problem" in that normally when HIVE spikes, HBD spikes along with it, albeit at a lower percentage. This means for instance, that while HIVE was trading at 47 cents on external markets, it was trading around 40 cents on the internal, because it is trading against HBD. So, I cancelled most of my internal orders in favour of external, and then will move back in at a later date. There are of course other reasons to trade on the internal market also.
When to buy back?
I have no idea. But my goal is to increase my stack of HIVE, so as long as I am able to do that, I am up. I would have loved to have stayed awake a bit longer and set some higher buybacks, because it became clear there was going to be a second run, but I missed them by a long way. I lowballed because if it did drop like a rock, I wanted to buy lower. Either way, it is not the end of the world, but if BTC does do a significant pullback in the coming few weeks, what will the low on HIVE be? And since I don't know, I will ladder my buys back in, starting at the most I am willing to pay, and working backwards.
Willingness is a big part of this, so when laddering buys for the future, consider what is the lowest you are willing to sell for, and when buying, consider the highest you are willing to pay. Greed often comes into play here, because it is pretty obvious that we want to sell for the highest, and buy for the lowest, but it is good to remember that at the tips of those peaks and the depths of those troughs, only very, very few trades actually catch them. Close enough is good enough - unless they are untriggered misses.
And on an end note, the HIVEUSDT Futures market is looking healthy.
That volume is over 2x the total amount of HIVE in circulation, and half a billion dollars in volume is nothing to scoff at. I still haven't dipped a toe into this yet, but it seems some are willing.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Posted Using InLeo Alpha
These hive spikes are indeed intriguing !, I have started to dabble in the trade, but I am playing with a much smaller bag ,over a longer timeframe and more simplistically, in that I am using the internal HBD:Swap.Hive LP for my moves.
I've been powering down my HP and since Dec 22nd (my first attempt to catch a spike), I have moved in three tranches, buying HBD for Swap.Hive at a Hive price of $0.37 and $0.46. Getting me 167.73 HBD for 450 Hive, or an average price of $0.373 so far.
Not super sharp, and as you say, the internal market is not so efficient,
Now that I have a base, I'll be more patient and only buy on successively higher spikes, or trade out if Hive drops to $0.25 or below in the interim
I plan to wait out the cycle and buy more HBD on successive spikes over 2025, although if Hive drops significantly, I'll trade back.
The aim is to increase my Hive bag and eventually power it up again, leaving some liquid to play the "spike game"
My trades have not been the sharpest, but it's a learning game and rather fun.
I have parked my HBD with a high sell price, just in case there is a crazy spike while I'm not watching.
It is a good and low risk way of getting into it I reckon. And like you said, once you have a base to play with, larger moves and gains can be made with the same level of risk :)
Lol. Same story with me last night and the internal market was not so great as it did not reflect the price outside. Good learning though for later in the bull cycle when I think using the 3.5 day exchange mechanism will be a must.
It only reflects the HBD/HIVE, so if HBD is also up, it makes Hive look "down" even though it is essentially priced the same. However, it is harder for some people to track on the internal market, so there are benefits.
Definitely benefits and I did nothing special and now as the price has dropped slightly already in profit and will be happy with an extra 20 Hive. Who needs sleep as this kept me up past 3.30 am. I will be keeping one eye open tonight.
Why?
I have no idea why the internal market was lagging so badly and it was out by about 7 or 8 c at one point. Maybe people were not aware or were just not around, but it was not great for those that wanted to swap.
It wasn't lagging, it is because it is compared to HBD and HBD was well above the dollar mark, so Hive bought less of it :)
Lol. I didn't notice HBD was above $1 and had lost it's peg. Kind of sucks when that happens as it is a $1.06 now.
Yes this what hard to all, which, have been trying to see the hight prices outsides and the internal market down.
But yes in some times the people get the arbitrage and the prices go same.
Yes it is good and bad and it depends if you are trying to convert HBD to HIVE or the other way around. Last night if you had HBD you would have scored more before the prices moved which they did eventually after about 2 hours.
At these prices, we need to start entering HBD for the long term. And buy a cheap HIVE after months or a year.
A month or two it will be lower I suspect, and then again two years from now :) But, I am just guessing :)
I'm playing short on this pump today
How'd you do?
Everything is fine, I play short with small amounts. I earn money for the New Year's table :)
Maybe arbing by selling on the external and buying on the internal cld work...?
Possible, but it is still down to the price of swap to HBD.
I like the pump and the fact that futures are now in play I'm hoping we don't dip as much. I'm just sad I don't have more liquid hive.
I have almost zero liquid at the moment now. But, if that dip comes!
I hope the future stabilizes the bottom a bit. Though, there are some pretty big whales that might be willing to manipulate that perhaps.
I have other coins, but I always thought about trying to trade some liquid hove to double the stack. I'm going to see what I can do with 10K! I hate to unstake it but if I could double it I'd be sitting closer to my 2024/2025 goals. Cheers man happy trading.
I put an order out at something like .43 which ended up being closer to .46 because of the difference in the price of HBD. I see it filled. Now I will just wait for HIVE to drop back down to .33 or so and then I will make the trade back into HIVE.
33ish seems like a decent target for a buyback. An easy 30% :)
It ultimately won't be too much, but I'd be happy to get any profit.
I am not sure if I like the posting you do about family life. Or the crypto/hive stuff more. I enjoy both. The life stuff makes me smile. The trading stuff is a learning experience for me. I need to start paying attention and learn how all this laddering works. 😉
Trading can be fun, as long as not losing too much, too often. Though, they can be good lessons!
I like the family stuff I reckon, because no one else has the same experiences as me :)
I really hate trading.Now it seems that I converted Hive to HBD to soon and should have waited. But perhaps today Hive price will reach a dollar and I will have to repeat this comment... Still... green markets are beautiful.Remember that half settles straight away, the other half on the 3.5 day average :)
Finding a spike in price is always tempting.. I alwsys prefer to set a target to sell. Rather than being awake in order to focus on higher price rise, I set a price to execute and then goes to sleep. I sold some today at .49 and then buy back them at .42 ...now again I placed a sell at .51...
It was because you mentioned this the other day that I included the "willing prices" - I do the same. I sell for less than I could have got, not necessarily less than I am happy getting. Were you able to make some other trades?
Hive trading is actually a bit easier than other coins. Because the moves of the market maker are all similar. First pump, then dump.
yeah, it is easier in this respect - though when it climbs a lot over the space of days, many get caught out.
I am loath to move any of my hive or hbd off chain but I certainly don’t have the stake you do.
I do love to buy low and sell high when there are spikes just so I can buy low again and work more stake out of it.
I just love knowing how it seemed silly to be buying so constantly when hive was below $.20 and the fact that hbd was paying so much in savings. Like a win win when you are in it for the long game!
I have had to over the years to trade back and forwards with.
Yep. Selling for a 100% gain isn't bad at all :)
I should have swapped recently back into Hive, but I was waiting for it to go lower. So I missed this spike and still sitting in HBD
I try to have a bit on both side, just in case.
I have been thinking to draw 100 HBD from savings and then convert to HIVE at a reasonable price, but it has not drop below $0.30 yet, it is my luck :)
At some point it will, you will buy at 30, and it will go to 20 ;D
I do it, and get 50 hives in the process, it was nice very nice.
I sell my hive and when it comes I put my order of hbd in $0.05 in down prices and it was ejecuté.
And when o wake up found this great surprises.
It is hard to do this but could help.
Well done - it is nice when things work out to plan, and happen accordingly :)
Exactly is necessary to have the plan
And follow it.
!PIZZA
$PIZZA slices delivered:
@danzocal(7/10) tipped @tarazkp
Things looking bright for Hive with new listing. Nice ladder strategy!!
Hehe trading is always challenging but it's exciting at the same time. For me, most of my Hive and HBD are staked, so I am just playing around with a smaller liquid portion, so any wins are more of a little bonus. So far so good, hehe.