On my recent post, there was a comment about having some HIVE price stability between 1 and 3, which would of course be great in the long term view, but I think in order to enjoy that kind of price stability, it would need to move quite a lot higher above that point first. The reason is that just like Bitcoin for instance, the floor price needs to increase and in order to do that, a couple of key things have to happen. The first is, people have to buy the token well above so that once price drops they are reluctant to sell for a loss and secondly, there has to be reasons to hold to double-down on that reluctance.
While bitcoin was once a dollar, the chances of it going back there (other than total and utter failure) is slim to none, because so many people have paid literally tens of thousands of times more than that. Because no one wants to sell for a loss, but there are still people who have bought well below others, an equilibrium point is reached on the downside. Plus, because so many of the buyers believe that the future price is going to be significantly higher than the current price, they are "taking on the risk" for that future potential, much like how yield return works to encourage people to put their tokens into a pool.
So, for HIVE to do something similar to increase the floor, the price has to go up and there has to be a reason to hold. Unlike Bitcoin though, the reason to hold Hive isn't just based on the potential future price, it is also based on the ways it can be used now. Many people look at the immediate value t can bring through voting and curation, but there are other aspects to it too, including airdrops of secondary tokens with Hive Power or HIVE held acting as an oracle for calculating who and how much gets what distribution of the new token, in the way @threespeak will drop LARYNX.
But, there are other aspects to it too, where for example Hive Power is the only way to generate "resource Credits" which are dynamic tokens on the Hive Blockchain that can be used for a number of purposes, including all interactions and building assets. for example, a lot of Splinterlands asset owners are looking forward to "LAND" where they are able to own digital fields and by using there other assets, generate more digital assets like NFTs, essentially farming new tokens into existence. This should be huge for the game.
However, this is already happening on HIVE using Resource Credits, as for a few years now, it has been possible for those with enough Hive Power, they are able to create new account tokens that can be used to create new user accounts. An account on Hive costs 3 HIVE to create, so essentially, the account tokens I have generated are worth 15,000 HIVE.
This of course depends on the demand of the accounts though, and at the moment, there isn't enough demand nor mechanisms in place for me to "sell" these tokens to new users, but that doesn't mean there won't be in the future.
Combine this with resource credit delegation and that means that not only will I be able to "sell" these accounts, I would also be able to (in various ways) empower these new accounts to use the blockchain in the ways they want. For example, if Splinterlands keeps onboarding new users and the markets for sale and rentals keeps expanding, the transaction costs for the entire game ecosystem is going to be quite enormous. As an investor into the game, I would like to also be able to tap into the success of developing the game itself. This could happen in multiple ways where for example there are groups of account token holders who provide "account liquidity pools" with the ROI coming from new users signing up to buy Spellbooks.
This could be backed up with RC delegation pools that provide the ability for all of these accounts to interact with the blockchain (whether on Splinterlands or other interfaces), which could for example have a APY return based on some kind of reference link, where the expenditures of the accounts created through the pool, will feed value into RC liquidity providers.
None of this is happening yet, but it could and, it could happen in many forms for various kinds of applications, interfaces and experiences that are also empowered by second-layer tokenization models. This way, new users could come into the Hive Blockchain and use a single interface, without knowing they are actually part of a far more more complex and valuable economy. But as they start to learn and explore, they too begin to have more reasons to hold a little HIVE or, participate in a broader way than the single interface.
These types of options for usage put pressure on various points of the HIVE tokenomics, increasing demand and affecting the supply, by changing the possibilities on how to use HIVE itself. For example, I will never generate enough transactions to use all of Resource Credits, but if everyone needed on average 100 HIVE POWER to do what they want to do, my account could only support around two thousand accounts. That is near nothing!
In fact, as Resource Credits are only generated by Hive Power, only 1,470,000 accounts could interact simultaneously with 100 HP of RCs each, based on the current staked HIVE. If all HIVE was staked, that would be about 3.5 million accounts only. But that leaves no HIVE on the exchanges. That creates a bit of a supply problem.
Of course, no account actually needs 100 HP to interact all of the time, which means that the RC delegation and the potential pools, will have to be a bit smarter than just giving each account RCs, which means they are going to be dynamic and based on usage on the fly - *once demand requires it. For most accounts though, 10 HP is enough for most interactions that they will broadcast to the chain, especially of the type that are needed for games and most applications. This means that a lot of the second-layer apps will use their own RCs to empower their users, either directly or through delegation and handle the transactions at the application level, not user by user.
But, while all of this seems complicated, most of the users that are coming in will not be seeing any of the complexity, they will just go about their day, doing what they do, while all of the infrastructure, maintenance and empowerment happens in the background. This makes Hive user friendly for endusers, but also highly attractive for investors and enablers looking to earn on owning part of the network. And, an owner isn't limited to choosing the layer, as there will be many ways to own on the second layer too, including for example, taking application tokens as payment for providing accounts or Resource Credits.
The options to tokenize and generate value on Hive is near endless, but what is needed to empower the wealth potential, are the applications and usecases that generate demand, so that people are willing to buy the token higher than it is now, but still hold it even during market fluctuations. What this means is that while the markets go up and down on token specualtion, HIVE can actually lessen its volatility, much like Bitcoin has accomplished over the last decade. Yes, it is still volatile, but we aren't likely to see Bitcoin increase in value another 70,000 times from the high in the future, as that would make one BTC worth 4.9 billion dollars - which is just silly.
But, the tokens that are able to accomplish a raising floor and usecases that encourage ownership and stabilization, there will be trillions upon trillions of dollars pouring into them yearly, as the entire world embraces the many layers of web 3.0 tokenization and all of the innovations that are going to be enabled by it.
You know, 20 dollar Hive is only 16x up from where we are today and while most people think it is crazy, that is a market cap of less than 10 billion dollars. That is very low indeed considering the potential that this industry has for even the smaller of the blockchains that can attract and retain users, and Hive has the possibility to be amongst the larger. It won't all pour into the HIVE token directly though, as the majority of wealth is going to be held on the many second-layer applications to come, but that is part of the way Hive generates decentralized security and stability.
Hive is the power grid, we are the power and also choose the many directions we flow.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
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Hive Network will be worth 10 billion dollars within the next 3-5 years.
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It might even spike up to that earlier - I am hoping in 3-5, 10b will be the base :)
Splinterlands has given us a taste of what just 1 successful dApp requires in terms of HIVE POWER.
What happens when we have 2, 3 or 50?
You're on point with your entire post once again :)
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Just imagine... There is so much value potential here and as the entire crypto scene grows, Hive is well placed to capture a lot of the activity and, it doesn't have to rely on any "specific" type. One of the drawbacks of having a generalized blockchain for content is it takes time to build specific applications that have volume - but once it is common place, it becomes a powerhouse.
Development is the key to increasing the value of the hive price. I can see it doing way better than even our wildest thoughts in a few years time. Great to be part of this as changes happen. Many will kick themselves for selling out to early and not understanding the bigger picture with the value of having stake.
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Most only stake because of curation rewards, not because they are able to own their experience - people will learn the value in time.
Yes they don't see the value of what they have as stake is the power as it controls what you can do. Hive will only become harder and harder to earn over the coming years and keeping ones stake is so important for every action we do.
Been on Steemit and came to Hive ! Compared to Steemit where i practically powered down the whole account because the platform did not represent me at all, Hive has been very dynamic and continuously evolving ! So i would not be surprised to see it's price reaching 20$ !
Welcome. The Steem blockchain unfortunately went to hell - Thankfully, no one was stuck there - we voted with our feet :)
20 dollar HIVE would be absolutely amazing, and I believe it's possible. I used to think otherwise for various reasons, mainly because I was ignorant, but seeing all the progress being made and realizing how effortlessly the network can support all sorts of applications changed my mind.
One of the cases where I love being wrong.
!LUV
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It is good to be wrong and still be able to benefit from it :) I think this is actually one of the great things about decentralized communities - we can all take various approaches and even when some fail, the success of others can still benefit us all.
@lordneroo(1/1) gave you
After the last run and pull back, I do think we have a new floor of about 41.50, a little bit more than the 40-50% pull back I expected based on the previous price spikes. So a new floor at $1.50 maybe.
I think the year end tax adjustments investor have to make are done, and we may see a little bit more Christmas action. I will go out on a limb and say year end price $2.12.
I wonder what other are thinking year end price wise?
A 1.50 floor at the heart of the bear would be welcome :)
I think we will see some action starting in the next week or so - BTC will climb first. 2.12 sounds low ;D
I might call for 2.80 at EOY, but i think we are not done yet and will see much higher in the next couple months.
I may be a little on the pessimistic side, it would be nice to finish the year on a high note, two weeks and a couple of days we will know.
we are right on track :)
looks good to me :)
If everything plays out, there will definitely be a lack of HIVE available for everyone. The RC issue is definitely going to be an issue as I don't think there will be enough if we get 100x or 1,000x our current transactions. Although I think there might be plenty of people around my HP level who can't create tokens and resource credits overfill.
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I reckon that if there are say, 100M new heavy users, there will be ways to scale that also. Second-layer apps are already able to build sidechains that work alongside to absorb non-essential activity, but still tie it to Hive. I assume that what ends up happening in the future is that blockchains become like ropes of many chains would together.
I am just hoping it doesn't become another WAX situation. When Alien Worlds exploded, I saw how the cost of how much you need to stake increase quite a bit. In a way it was almost unusable for people on the lower end and it would take too long to get more CPU for transacting.
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I don't know what happened on WAX, but I think that it will be different here in this regard, especially once the RC delegation arrives. I think that is in the next HF.
Honestly speaking... I don't wanna get my hopes up lol... haha. whatever happens happens, I don't wanna fall into the emotional attachment I had with steemit. I love the hive community though.
Emotions are powerful - use them wisely, let them go when they are no longer helping you get to where you want to be :)
Thanks for such wise words :)
It feels a little crazy that Hive could make me millionaire, but bring it on! For other people it could make a bigger difference to their lives when a few dollars could pay the bills. I want to see it achieve that potential. We have to manage scaling up without it becoming polluted by abuse and that is a delicate balancing act. Need to set the right expectations. It's going to be fun anyway.
Gotta admit, one of my favorite calculations is the "Hive Millionare Price" - the price of Hive at which point you'd become a millionaire, lol. For me it's about 50 bucks. "Only" 30x from here. That's nothing in crypto :D
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Mine went pretty high recently. That scares me a bit, but it does get people excited and we need that enthusiasm. I'm happy if it's a gradual climb. I can wait a bit longer.
!BEER
View or trade
BEER.Hey @celestal, here is a little bit of
BEERfrom @steevc for you. Enjoy it!Did you know that you can use BEER at dCity game to **buy dCity NFT cards** to rule the world.
It is interesting how different people see this side of it - I wouldn't mind a "new experience" in life either.
Absolutely. Wouldn't it be grand to see 100K people achieve financial freedom because of Hive?
I told my friend I would organize a TED talk and write a book when Hive has the current value of Bitcoin.
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It won't get to the same value as bitcoin, you are safe ;)
21m bitcoin, 380m HIVE and increasing.
Hive is doing better thank any other social coin these days. It seems the developer of hive is more devoted now. i am very optimistic about hive and very like to see hive in top 20 on coinmarket.
We are all developers of Hive :)
Hive at $20 isn't just some outrageous or pipe dream, it is possible. Looking at it's performance of late and how it's held up above the dollar. The possibilities of Hive's growth in terms of price and usecase are just endless.
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It will be interesting to see - but bear markets tend to crush price pretty hard - how hard depends on what we build in the meantime.
It is a situation that we are only going to see as we move forward.
What is interesting is the potential for HBD is actually greater. The correlation between the two is also fascinating and can help to magnify the impact that you mentioned in here.
All of it appears to be funneling in the same direction: enormous growth potential of Hive.
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I agree the HBD situation could get completely out of hand. For a truly decentralised stable coin with such small cap and something which is vital to the crypto eco system. Say Tether blows up etc more demand for stable coins and Hive price could potentially just sky rocket to places unthinkable.
What a terrible outcome for us all that would be! ;D
Yeah it is going to be an interesting ecosystem if HBD can hold some stability and definitely, as price increases, HBD is going to be immense.
I can think of many ways that HIVE could reach $20 but it doing so would make me a millionaire, something I’ve never thought of as a real possibility after decades of being a wage slave. Other people become millionaires. So, psychologically, I’m having a hard time imagining it potentially happening to me. It’s a growth area.
I have the same feeling. I wonder how many people think it "impossible" because they can't imagine themselves being wealthy?
Well, I don't think that a sharp increase to $20 would be useful in a short time for HIVE blockchain. There would come up a lot of new users who would come just to earn some $ with their poor quality posts and probably plagiarism.
Moreover, a HIVE user needs HIVE token to power up to interact on HIVE blockchain. Therefore, I think the less price of HIVE would cause the more HIVE Power.
It is very useful. It will drop again in price, but it brings attention. When thousands of accounts are earning thousands for a few week, it attracts attention.
This happens now at any price :) Many people joined in late 2017/ early 2018 when Steem price was up. most left - some are now orcas and a couple whales.
I remember the price of Steem was $8-$9 and there are many people from my country. Now not like that despite the recent ups.
For all the reasons you mentioned, Hive $ 20 can also be a downward estimate.
More and more applications are born and develop and will be exciting to observe the evolution of our ecosystem.
Selling hive today is in my opinion and poorly wise, but everyone is the artefice of his destiny, a bit like the customer who paid 10k btc for a pizza
It would be interesting what the reasctions of some people would be if it did hit say, 50 dollars. Would people be upset?
I would certainly be, but I would also be angry at Hive $ 10 as I am sure that everyone who sold HIVE at $ 0.40 or $ 0.50 is now very angry 😁
Matters of perspectives ☺️
Definitely. I think it is going to be interesting to see some very high prices, just to watch the different reactions.
There is possibility for hive to reach $20 and if only we have demand supply. But if there seems fake circulation or fake demand supply we can decline the value of hive. AND If hive.blog maintains it's strict rules and regulations we can see even to $50 which is not just shoking.
What do you mean by "fake"?
there are no rules and regulations, other than the way people use it.
Fake circulation, ,the way people use only self vote.
Rules and regulations against plagiarism
Ah, that is possible, but so are downvotes :)
People can plagiarise if they want - but they might get downvoted forever.
We were at $4500 (BTC) 3 years back, but how we see recovery is just shocking. But I am scare of the hive price because we have witnessed Steem few years back at $8 to $10 but now only $0.50. This coin has no more potential to touch another high there may be reason I don't know.
Talking about hive, I am imagining the scene of steem 2 years back which was at its highest high but now is only in cents. We can see hive to more than $5 and may be more but has no potential to maintain its value.
(It's all about my thinking and thoughts) I may be wrong.
This is the ups and downs of a bull to bear market and, Steem is a shithole now that is being raped by the "witnesses".
Price will always drop after a bull market - how far is the question.
For Hive to be stable on 3 dollar,it needs to move more than 3 dollars,so that when it will retest,it will retest on 3 dollars and continue on it bull position, like BTC and BNB.
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yes.
Thanks
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How many people come to give for gaming vs blogging?
I don't understand the creating of accounts for 3 HIVe?
I agree with everything you said about the price of HIVe needing a floor not go under again similar to Bitcoin. Hindsight on bitcoin purchasing opportunities a few years ago.
There is a cost to signup, but most interfaces collect accounts and give them free .
In a few years from now, people might be lamenting not being a little more active or thoughtful with their accounts here :)
So do you create more accounts with the idea of selling them at some point ? Like people reserving website names or instagram handles and then selling them?
these aren't named yet - they are "blank" accounts. For example at some point, I plan on inviting all of the company I work for, which will take 600+ of them - I also want to be able to earn from them too. I have been collecting them for a while :)
Hive is still trending to move to that possible part of becoming one of the best token and I believe sooner or later the changes will occur and it would even be among the first 50 with much improvement yet to come.
Let's see how it goes. Not sure if people are ready to adopt something so radical.