Todays lesson is on greed and patience.
I have been trying to trade and make some gains, which I have been doing, but I have also been trying to be more patient, setting my targets and waiting. The problem is, like I mentioned the other day, is if the targets for a buyback are a touch too low, nothing gets bought, and that means, no percentage gain on the upside when it breaks out And, this is exactly where I found myself lamenting my patience (or greed), as I missed my first buybacks by about half a cent the other day on HIVE, and decided I would keep waiting. With Hive hovering around the 0.35 mark, I was expecting a drop, not a near 100% drive upward.
The picture is of a Christmas decoration, but it will suffice for an asshole.
If I had made those buys and sold where I would have set those sells, I would have still missed the top by about 15 cents so far, but the gains would have covered about three months of missing salary that will not be arriving. That would have likely come in handy, and even if I ended up not needing it for living expenses, it would have been nice to have it for another buyback cycle.
And herein lays the issue.
The risk in trying to catch these swings, means if one is missed, it has a knock-on effect for all the others to come. While technically nothing has been lost, the future potential gets reduced. And, while I still have what I sold into, to make gains on it I am going to have to buy something else that I am less familiar with, and look for profits there. At the moment, I am not sure what that is going to be.
At the moment, HIVE is so high that it is unlikely to be a reasonable time for it to come back down to my buys, and then go back up to make gains on it. So, I will look to make some other trades between and gain there, and then wait until HIVE is back into a reasonable (for my trade cycle) buying price.
It pisses me off a little.
Because "old me" would have been more impatient and would have bought HIVE back "too high", which would have meant I could have taken large advantage here. However, old me also has a lot of experience buying HIVE back to early and then having to wait many months or years before it is at a reasonable sell price again - which is why I used all the willpower I had not to buy back this time.
Assholes.
Old me would also have very little liquid available... And that was the case this time too. Because while I had some, I used it all "being bold" to catch these swings. However, I Really wasn't expecting the swing to be so large so soon. I thought I had a couple weeks still.
And herein lays another problem, because as I have said before, when HIVE moves, it can move very fast, and now it is likely to go up in the space of a few days over a dollar perhaps, which will be before I and likely others will get liquids. However, I know of a few that are taking advantage.
Oh well. Such is life.
Now that I have ruined the potential of a good swing trade, the next step is to find something else to spend the USDT on, and see where that leads me. If anyone has any ideas that aren't just stupid, let me know what your suggestions are.
Hope you had some successful trades out there!
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Posted Using InLeo Alpha
I can hear you - I was shocked this morning having a powerdown to use liquid Hive to sell and buy back more Hive when it goes down again - now sitting there and my powerdown takes two hours still while Hive prize shrinks, shrinks, shrinks - as always too late for such pumps it seems :-) - good thing it will probably happen again
I am 7 days away! :D
That is what i often had in the past - still over 50 cent woul be good when I can buy back at 30-40 cent - we will see :-)
My exercise for the holidays was/is to learn DLMMing on Meteoria ...lol!!, sounds a bit rude, I know.
It's on the Solana chain and it is Dynamic Liquidity Market Making.
A good channels to follow on YT are Seb Montgomery, and TokenGuy. I follow TokenGuy on Twitter too, he seems like a really decent chap, doing Web3 full time and keen to help others learn. Both that good video guides.
Seb is more of a pro-YT channel, very polished, but he has some very good guides, his SUO series is very useful
I have also started to dabble on the SUI chain.
I had some SUI and SOL as prep for the 2025 bull market and I thought I'd like to learn how to make them work, but keep my risk down.
So for I have been successful with the SUI stuff, which was depositing my SUI with SuiLend and borrowing some USDC , we are not talking big money here, this is a learning exercise. I put in my SUI (145) and borrowed 50% of my limit in USDC ($200) then swapped half of the USDC for SUI and went into the SUI:USDC pool on BlueFin.
This has worked well, I am well below my borrow limit and more importantly my liquidation threshold (SUI will need to fall 50% for that to happen), and it seems I'm getting about 140% apr return on this pool, and because its a stable coin pair, if SUI drops I'm left holding USDC , which is fine.
Fun experiment, working well so far.
On Meteora, it's more complex to get my head around and I fumbled my first few attempts, so I lost about 1 SOL over about 4 attempts , but I'm persevering and experimenting with a strategy that lowers the risk,and that one is still playing out, so far so good, the return there atm is 7% per day!!
If it sounds interesting and I'd highly recommend those two guys I mentioned at the start.
There is risk here, so don't think it's a money printer, but earning fees from others trading feels good
I used to get into the LPs back in the day, but I lost so much I am shy now. It was fun and crazy while they lasted though!
That is insane. Be careful out there!
I am playing with fun money really, not going to go hungry if I lose it all :-)
Dear my bro @tarazkp !
Do you believe that you can get rich through cryptocurrency trading?
Yes. You can. Whether I can is still to be seen :)
HIVE - The StableCoin - remember that from 3 days hence? If only I had known.
Yup. I was so close to pulling the trigger at that point and then said "no, be patient."
Fuck it.
I am in a very similar situation. Life wise and trade wise.
Yesterday, I almost purchased back my traded HIVE for the same price I gave it away at. I was waiting on a dip back to 0.35 (originally I was waiting for low 0.30's), told myself to be patient. Looks like I should of been happy with 0.36. I was trading with HBD so at least I got some HBD to comfort me. I still do have a little liquid and I'll hang onto that in-case something insane happens.
That was where most of mine were. I just misses the .33 dip.
Every other time I have bought, it would dip further. Maybe someone is watching us....
You might be onto something.
Seems my plan has been failed :) I will continue saving HBD and get interest payout or convert some of it to HIVE at a reasonable price.
I know the feeling mate...
This is my problem as I can always find more elusive Splinterlands cards to buy! No swing trading for me either, but I can imagine some people with 50x long $HIVE positions are ready to retire now after a few good weeks of trading. Can't say it was me.
There are those who were trading and already retired :)
I would buy so much $SPS!
Haha today was really a surprise! Most of the Hive I bought with HBD were in the 30s and I closed them at 40s. Not the ideal price but trading is all about profits, and I am contented. Had a lot of fun too!
Profit is better than loss!
Yes! :D
I've just been messing around with stuff here on HIVE HUB. Whether it stays as HIVE or HBD doesn't matter much to me as I just hope to make a little bit of profit. I see people sending it off chain and making this "sure thing moves" and I just feel like I would probably screw something up!
I sent off chain because of the arbitrage, but I didn't have much!
Yeah, I should figure out a way to do that from the US.
Yr never going to catch all of them, who knows you might get lucky next time like I did this time, being asleep and then catching it at $0.60, had I been awake I would have sold sooner.
Buying back is a pain, but who cares, you were buying Hive when it was $0.20 so enjoy the wins!
I try to remember this. But this was also when I had a job! :D
Oh you don't have a job anymore...? Congratulations!
ohhhh i know
ive been very slack over the market watch over this crypto season. Ive been focusing more on knuckling down my HIVE accounts itself, (writing) and also splinterlands. So my buying of crypto has been very short.
i was waiting for the push down as well. didn't expect it do go up to Aussie$1.
i was considering trying a little bit of trading with HIVE id don't often do it. as long as i stay under a buy in that i would actaully be happy with in the end i guess it doesn't matter. but pretty annoyed at missing this little (or not so little pump)
but i hear you at missing buy ins. Its hard when you can;t simply sit by the computer all day and decide yourself
instead i'll just have to earn my HIVE posting. lol. I guess that is better in the long run for the chain.
anyway, happy that there is some HIVE love out there. lets get some cool people into the chain.
BLINGIT
With the price of the dollar there at the moment, that isn't saying much ;D
I was though. Sitting patiently saying "Don't buy now - wait for your set buys"
btw, the Hive to SPS trade may be useful if you are inclined to prep for pack buying when CA releases.
Currently SPS trades at a fair price to Hive in the LP's ( HBD has a rubbish rate and it's messing with my strategy of buying HBD with hive when it pumps and buying Hive back with HBD when it drops, it's a pit, in theory it should work but I guess the internal HE market is too inefficient☹️ )
With 1 SPS = 10 DEC atm, I am hoping that the SPS:DEC exchange rate will go closer to 1:30 near CA launch and I'll have three times the ammount of DEC to buy packs with.
Of course if Hive goes to $1.20 , given my cost basis I'd be just as well off staying in Hive...lol!
I haven't put anything into LPs for a very long time, but perhaps I should have a look. If SPS goes well, I might have to sell some!
Hive is really increasing in price suddenly and drastically. I was awake at that moment tonight. The pumping started right after 00:00 (GMT). I thought it would be short-lived but it lasted a long time.
Greed is really a big problem. Gradual buying or selling can make you trade a little more profitable.
It only a took a few days when it went to over 3 dollars a few years ago :)
I was shocked by the price of Hive today. I wish I have some Hive on my wallet to trade. That’s why instead of watching the price went high, I just closed my eyes and watch some movies.
I went to bed!
:D
I am experimenting a little bit into the Hivedex with less than 100 Hive just to learn how to do it.
How's it going?
Started with 79 hive that I came up with from swapping other various tokens. I jumped the gun a little with the .43 sell. I should have did the ladder with three equal amounts. Blew my mind to see it hit .60+
So now I got a .22 buy set. I guess I need to ladder that for like 3 buys in the mid to high .20's.?
Once I figure it all out I will throw some fiat into the mix and see how I can do. I want to know what I am doing before I start laying down 1k or bigger hive trades. 🤔
This is ironic because my newest piece I posted today Swing. This morning I could not believe my eyes. Sadly the magic soon began to fade...
or so it seems?It might stick for a bit.
I’d just buy HBD. Trade back and forth …Hive to HBD … then HBD back to Hive.
Buying HBD now is maybe not the best idea until it is at peg as stable coin
True.
I kind of did the same, I sold hive too soon at .38 never knowing it would double. I rhought waiting for a week is too long. Jow we never know when Hive would be as high as today
I was waiting for the 30 cent range to buy in again. Big this time! Well, I guess that's not happening any time soon, or ever again...
Weekend swing trading on $HIVE looks like it's the new hotness for a while. There may be a discernible pattern to when the trade volume, and thus the price declines some.
Quick math - trade volume for the past 24-hours on $HIVE was ~6x market cap - which is even larger than last weekends volume. Reason would suggest this a group of traders or at least a subset so traders who are currently fixated on Hive. Well see if this picks up again next weekend.
maybe also as of new listing especially Bitpanda in Europe and the recent Binance announcment on Futures
I was planning to buys some hive tokens if it would have gone down. However, it is getting pumped, though it is good. But I feel like missing out.
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Sir, Are you know what is the reason behind the so much increase in the price of $HIVE ? I am not expert but I think when everyone is selling their $HIVE whales are buying and when everyone sold their whole$HIVE whales increase price
I know some people who had placed orders and missed them.
I am too impatient (still learning though) so I try to make moves on the spot.
Unfortunately all this break out happened during my sleeping hours :)
Its ok, I anticipate next one!
!PIZZA
$PIZZA slices delivered:
@danzocal(8/10) tipped @tarazkp
Timing is always tricky, especially when trading.
I do like the look of Virtuals. I've been tracking it now for a while. AI agents and Blockchain will collide and coalesce in certain spaces in 2025 I believe and Viruals could be a winner in this space.
My strategy though is to grow as much as possible in 2025 and at some point transfer majority to Bitcoin and hunker down until next halving. 2025 should offer lots of growth opportunities, but the knives will come out at some stage and absolutely decimate the unprepared...