I find it funny that it doesn't seem like that long ago that HIVE was 11 or 12 cents and people told me I was crazy, Hive won't go 10x - and I have seen some of those same people saying - "see, it is down 50 percent!"
It is interesting how we process time and how our memories fade as to the predictions we make on the future, when we are wrong.When we are right however, some are only all too ready to "rub it in" the faces of those they "warned". I am just happy when people feel they are benefiting and improving their lives, though we all have different standards and goals in this regard.
But, it is also interesting to see how different price activity affects behavior, as I think one of the most difficult parts of crypto for most people, is their own attitude throughout the ups and downs. Mindset matters and most people do not naturally carry an investor mindset, so they have to learn it along the way. While many people come into crypto *as investors, most that come onto Hive are not investors to start with and don't necessarily think they are going to be - all they want to do is earn on content delivery.
Inevitably though, in order to earn, there is going to have to be the need to trade in some way, even if it id only on the internal exchange or Hive Engine. Even with "rare trades" the effects of profit and loss are felt and I know plenty of people who kick themselves for selling too early and buying too late, even if it is minutes after they have done so. Of course, all of these percentages add up over time, but I think for the inexperienced trader (like myself), the learning experience is valuable, with the most valuable part being the ability to control emotions.
For instance, since what was only a few short weeks ago when HIVE hit its ATH of $3.40, I have lost more than the value of my house in the pullback. That is fucking insane! Yet, I don't seem to be overly phased by it. What is also interesting is that during that same time period, I applied for and got an internal position that comes with a better base salary and a little extra bonus incentive. However, even if I were to reach all of my bonuses, I would have to work for the next 16 years for it to add up to what has retracted in less than the last month. Again--- insane!
You idiot - I told you so!
What is interesting is that ATH was accomplished within 48 hours of the current price now. But hey, that'll never happen again.
Do you bet on it?
Well, I don't "gamble" with that kind of bet, but as a holder, I do gamble on the future price of HIVE being not only higher than it is now, but higher than the ATH, otherwise I would have sold what I had liquid then. I didn't because I didn't feel the price reflected the potential. Yes, I could have sold and bought back, but if I think there is more potential in the token, that opens me up to the risk of not having any HIVE when that potential is realized.
This isn't necessarily easy to do though and for those who are desperate to cash out because they need it it is impossible, but that is why I work. I think that many people who cash out though don't actually need it immediately, but they are not able to come to terms with the non-sell if price declines. They don't feel like holders, they feel like idiots. I never underestimate our ability to make decisions to avoid feeling stupid, even if in hindsight they were stupid decisions to make.
I have made many stupid trading decisions and the most costly of them have been the selling too early ones, at least from what I remember. I have also held a lot of tokens all the way up the green slope and all the way back down the red too, but it has nearly always been a loss of potential gain, with very few dropping back past where I bought them for, at least not for very long.
Long is relative.
For some, a long time is a year, another ten years, another ten minutes. While this depends on the relation to immediate circumstance, investment always takes time to mature, even crypto which can go from nothing to hundred in days or weeks. Some people come in expecting that they buy now and a few months later, they will be able to quit their job. It happens - it is rare.
But like I said, it would take me 16 years of raise and bonus to earn the same as I "lost" and under normal circumstances, someone (not in crypto) would look at the bump in salary and potential bonus and be super happy that they got it. I am super happy too, because it means that I have more breathing room for crypto to mature and, I suspect that it is going to take less time for that to happen for what I hold, than it will for me to earn the same through my working future. And, when it does finally start looking like a sell, it would mean that all the salary I get, would be irrelevant.
But, just in case that never happens, I'll keep working away and making sure I hit some of those targets - not for the money alone though, but because I feel the jobs I do make a difference. Some want to be rich to be rich - some want a little more meaning to life than that. I am in the latter, but I also want to have the path to wealth tie in with providing meaning too.
$1.60 HIVE seems low. But it probably seems high to the people who wanted some, but didn't buy any at $1.30 last week.
The way we look and feel about things drives our behavior, which is why why it is so important to keep our emotions in check, whether the markets are up, or down.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
It's the story we tell ourselves about ourselves. Personally, the ones that sting are when I cash out too soon. The whole; "I just had to do nothing" realisation really hits home. Had that with HUNT token. Dumped for $3k a few weeks before it went x5. It's doubled again from there, woulda been $30K if I just held.
Still, it's not like I bought a car with that $2k. It went straight into Splinterlands. The lesson is clear. The surest way to lose, is to move into fiat.
I think you are absolutely right about the mindset part, and that is the part I find most difficult.
I've not got anywhere near the hodling that you do, I think I would not have dealt with that "loss" as well as you! But I got into Steem back when it was $6 and went all-in - all my BTC and ETH, and some fiat. Back then I thought Steem was going to 2x so it "made sense".
That said, I no longer look at Hive as a way to get out of my day job commitments and instead look at it like a learning opportunity. I'm coding projects so I can get a better understanding how things work and maybe I will build something that people see value in and earn that way, instead of hoping for the windfall Hive at $20 day ;)
Oh and yeah - coding some projects should help stay active and, learn a lot. With Web 3.0 "just around the corner" for adoption, people who understand what is going on are going to be as rare as hen's teeth.
I had a "kinda" mate who stacked into Steem around there too - then after it fell - disappeared. He still has his stake, but doesn't even know of the move to Hive. Gotta stay active to take advantage.
Yeah, bought Steem at USD 3 and some Bitshares and EOS at that time.
Not the best move, but learned a lot.
I think my first purchase of Steem was at 1.80 on the way up - held all the way down too :D
Haha, at least something good came from it in the form of Hive.
I was one of those people who was a bit disappointed because I sold too early but I had my reasons so I have no regrets.
The thing about hive is that there is so much potential for growth and even though it doesn't get to where we imagine, the possibility that it might is enough for me.
A lot of people sell early - for me, it has to be life changing (or saving) to sell and at these prices, it isn't enough for that yet. But, we likely have different life circumstances :)
That is true, for people in my country selling at 3 dollars isn't bad at all considering the exchange rate and cost of living.
No more bargain bin blue light specials. Great if you hope to sell soon but not as good if you want to stack.
Indeed. It is slow going now for adding stake :)
Many are after the destination but failed to remember there's a journey towards it.
There is a journey and those who make the value on that path, rather than at the destination, are the richest :)
I kept powering up from pretty much day seven or eight back in the Steem days. I am not sure when I got my first pay-out or curation reward. I have held out some Hive to play with a little bit here and there. Every spike of Hive over the last four months I was still powering up. That first nice spike in September I think when it went from the $0.40 range to $0.90 range.
Yes there are a lot of paper loses, and a lot of paper regrets on the part of many, I look forward to the day I actually make a fiat transition of some of my Hive, I don't know when that will be, but it will be done one day I hope.
My biggest Hive Crypto fear, (which is stupid), is not being able to convert to fiat before I die and then it all just sitting gathering dust in some far off corner of dead Hive accounts..
I am still thinking $2.12 for a year end price, no reason other than it is a nice looking number.
I think there are a few like this - so make sure you have gateways you can use set up, even if you don't plan non using them yet.
Right now my wife knows where to find the keys, so now all I need is to set up the KYC account for me and one for her, as a just in case scenario.
As I have said on your previous posts, I have never thought that 11-12 cent was the reap value of HIVE. However, it was a great chance to buy, I don't believe that we will see that prices again.
It would take you 16 years of raise and bonus to earn the same, but what if at $5, $10, $15? Perhaps, you might retire :)
It was a great time to buy - wish I had bought more than scarps :)
Yep - so the extra income tides me over til retirement :)
I do not usually try to time markets, but I do anticipate a sell off after the air drops. I am going to see if I can move some hive to HBD and then buy back again at a lower price. It likely won’t work out, but I am going to give it a shot.
Controlling our emotions when it comes to trading and the market in general is so spot on. Timing is everything. For young folks like you and my children, it's all about long term but when you are in my age group (retired) buying and selling takes on a whole different perspective.
Regardless, we keep our emotions and greed out of it as well.
Have a great holiday, enjoy your family and celebrate!!
Fazed, phase is...well it seems to be a lot of things to do with state and stages of development and not much to do with being affected by something XD
It is interesting (and mildly confusing for me ^_^;) to see people's reactions to price fluctations.
ps - my favourite is still the selective memories and being dismissive of any times people were wrong and how triumphant and how much they have to make sure EVERYBODY knows about it when they were right XD
This is one of the reasons trading is not easy and many lose their money. You need to "train" your mind. I used to read many phycology trading books when I was day trading long ago. You need to learn to lose, even when losing means selling too early.
On top of dealing with your mind, you need to work on a strategy and try to stick to it for a while so you can analyze it and tweak it. Otherwise, all you do is lose money and kill your personal mood.
Trading is not easy, even when you are up x10 some people may tell you you lost 50% because you did not sell on the ATH a few days ago. I do not day trade anymore because I realized my head was not prepared to do it, I invest and swing trade, but I have learned to be patient, think in the future, not the present, and most importantly, be happy whenever your investments are doing good, no matter if they could have been better.
We all make decisions and sometimes these decision turns out to be the worse. Learning to be stable emotionally will save us from a lot of irrational decision which looks like reaping in profit but found out on the long run that it was all lose...we really need to understand how these things work... In my honest opinion,there is so much more to learn.
That’s the thing about trading, there are some decisions one can’t forget in a hurry