Projecting Pete Alonso’s Next Contract Ahead Of Free Agency
It was certainly a magical season for the New York Mets in 2024. With the deep run, the turnaround to the offseason is much, much quicker. Monday marks the opening of free agency and the Mets have several that are set to hit the open market. Of those, none are more prominent than New York’s first baseman Pete Alonso.
Alonso is set to be one of the top bats on the market. Across his six years with the Mets, he has slugged 226 home runs, the second-most in the majors over this time, trailing only soon to be two-time American League MVP Aaron Judge (232). Alonso has been one of the most impactful power bats since entering the league in 2019, owning a 134 OPS+ and a career OPS of .854. Bringing him back would likely result in Alonso smashing the franchise’s all-time home run record, which currently sits at 252 (Darryl Strawberry).
Furthering the emotional aspect of the situation, Alonso had arguably one of the biggest home runs in team history this postseason. His go-ahead, three-run shot in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the Milwaukee Brewers will go down in Mets history. Add in his terrific track record, and the fact he is on pace to smash all kinds of Mets power records, it’s extremely hard to balance the emotion of wanting to retain a potential franchise legend with what is smartest for the team.
Of course, a reunion will be largely dependent on one thing; the new contract. Alonso is by no means old, as he will be only 30 come the beginning of 2025. However, once you get on the wrong side of 30, a player’s prime quickly gets farther and farther away. So, despite the emotional aspect of the situation, the Mets must be careful.
Furthering the emotional aspect of the situation, Alonso had arguably one of the biggest home runs in team history this postseason. His go-ahead, three-run shot in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the Milwaukee Brewers will go down in Mets history. Add in his terrific track record, and the fact he is on pace to smash all kinds of Mets power records, it’s extremely hard to balance the emotion of wanting to retain a potential franchise legend with what is smartest for the team.
Of course, a reunion will be largely dependent on one thing; the new contract. Alonso is by no means old, as he will be only 30 come the beginning of 2025. However, once you get on the wrong side of 30, a player’s prime quickly gets farther and farther away. So, despite the emotional aspect of the situation, the Mets must be careful.
Projecting the Deal
With all that being said, what is a realistic deal Alonso may sign in the offseason while on the open market?
Sportstrac projects a six-year deal worth nearly $30 million per season and $174 million overall. Meanwhile, the Athletic is projecting a seven-year deal worth $189 million total, good for an average annual value of $27 million per season. Either way, it appears Alonso made the correct decision in betting on himself, and not accepting the, at-the-time, very competitive offer the Mets made during the 2023 season.
A realistic prediction for Alonso’s next deal would seem way closer to the Athletic’s projection rather than the hefty projection by Sportstrac. Netting a deal larger or equal to the one that Freddie Freeman signed (six-year deal worth $162 million; $27 million annually) seems unrealistic. Granted, Freeman did sign the deal at 32 years old, and Alonso will only be 29/30. However, throughout his career Freeman has been a comfortably better player than Alonso has been.
With all that being said, the power Alonso possesses is rare. Despite the down season, he’s still only 30 years old. There is no reason to believe that he can’t get back closer to his career averages after a “career-worst” year where he still slugged over 30 homers and had an above-average OPS.
Final Verdict: Six-year deal worth $151.5 million ($25.25 million annually)