Navigating the Free Agency Landscape: The Misconceptions of Pete Alonzo and Alex Bregman
As we rewind to the conclusion of the 2019 MLB season, baseball was reaping unprecedented offensive rewards. Home runs soared at astonishing levels, with the Washington Nationals surprising many by making the playoffs. Jacob deGrom proudly claimed his second consecutive Cy Young award, while Mike Trout seemed set to capture his third MVP title. However, two names stood out in discussions about that season: Pete Alonzo, the Rookie of the Year, and Alex Bregman, the AL MVP runner-up.
Both players were at the top of their game, with Alonzo setting a rookie record with 53 home runs and a remarkable 14.7 OPS+. Meanwhile, Bregman delivered an even more impressive performance: an 8.9 WAR topped by 119 walks to just 83 strikeouts, alongside a powerful offensive output. If they had hit the free agent market after this standout season, there’s no doubt they would have commanded hefty paychecks. Fast forward to late 2024, and both players are facing a sobering reality as they approach free agency, misjudging their current value in the league.
Let’s first take a closer look at Pete Alonzo. At 30 years old, Alonzo’s peak, which he reached during his rookie season, seems distant as his performance has gradually waned. While he has managed to hit over 40 home runs in the years following that rookie year, 2024 marked his worst statistical performance, with a career-low OPS and only 34 home runs.
Alonzo’s trajectory raises red flags. After accumulating an impressive 6 WAR in his rookie season, he has failed to surpass 4.5 WAR in any subsequent season, with a disappointing 2.6 WAR recorded last year. His defensive performance has further compounded these issues; his fielding at first base was among the lowest in the league, coupled with subpar base running metrics.
Despite these downward trends, Alonzo is reportedly asking for a minimum of six years at $200 million. This request seems rather unrealistic when comparing it to current valuations in the market—about $8 million per WAR would suggest Alonzo is worth closer to $125 million over six years, and even that is contingent on maintaining his production levels. His actual worth may be better suited to a four or five-year contract at $25 million average annual value.
Next, we turn our attention to Bregman. Although he had a better season overall than Alonzo last year, his performance showcased troubling patterns. Bregman finished with a WAR of 4.1 yet exhibited declines in numerous critical metrics, including a drop in his OPS and home runs. Bregman’s expected metrics indicate he's trending toward being more of a slap hitter, incongruent with the expectations of a corner infielder commanding top dollar.
Like Alonzo, Bregman has set his sights on a $200 million contract, though the exact years he is targeting remain unclear. At 31 years old—and after three consecutive years of declining offensive output—Bregman’s wish for a lengthy commitment could be seen as problematic for any prospective team. While he has averaged around 4.5 WAR over the past three seasons, making him theoretically worth $36 million a year, it is difficult to justify a six-year deal based on recent performance, especially considering his defensive contributions are also suspect and reliant on his aging body.
The parallel between Alonzo and Bregman is stark, as both seem out of touch with market realities. If they continue to cling to their lofty demands, there is a risk of becoming another statistic in a recent trend of big-name veterans remaining unsigned as spring training approaches.
This potential outcome is not desired, as it could hinder their career paths dramatically. However, the current trajectory does suggest that unless they are willing to adjust their expectations significantly, they may face a hard truth come contract negotiations.
In closing, the crucial question remains: Are Pete Alonzo and Alex Bregman truly worth the contracts they are asking for? Fans are left to ponder whether their favorite teams should make such commitments or encourage the players to temper their expectations.
As the winds of free agency whip through the MLB landscape, only time will tell how this situation unfolds—will the veterans find suitors willing to meet their demands, or will they need to recalibrate in order to secure their future contracts in the league? The conversation is wide open, and the comments are yours for the taking.
Part 1/8:
Navigating the Free Agency Landscape: The Misconceptions of Pete Alonzo and Alex Bregman
As we rewind to the conclusion of the 2019 MLB season, baseball was reaping unprecedented offensive rewards. Home runs soared at astonishing levels, with the Washington Nationals surprising many by making the playoffs. Jacob deGrom proudly claimed his second consecutive Cy Young award, while Mike Trout seemed set to capture his third MVP title. However, two names stood out in discussions about that season: Pete Alonzo, the Rookie of the Year, and Alex Bregman, the AL MVP runner-up.
Part 2/8:
Both players were at the top of their game, with Alonzo setting a rookie record with 53 home runs and a remarkable 14.7 OPS+. Meanwhile, Bregman delivered an even more impressive performance: an 8.9 WAR topped by 119 walks to just 83 strikeouts, alongside a powerful offensive output. If they had hit the free agent market after this standout season, there’s no doubt they would have commanded hefty paychecks. Fast forward to late 2024, and both players are facing a sobering reality as they approach free agency, misjudging their current value in the league.
Pete Alonzo: Power Hitter on the Decline
Part 3/8:
Let’s first take a closer look at Pete Alonzo. At 30 years old, Alonzo’s peak, which he reached during his rookie season, seems distant as his performance has gradually waned. While he has managed to hit over 40 home runs in the years following that rookie year, 2024 marked his worst statistical performance, with a career-low OPS and only 34 home runs.
Alonzo’s trajectory raises red flags. After accumulating an impressive 6 WAR in his rookie season, he has failed to surpass 4.5 WAR in any subsequent season, with a disappointing 2.6 WAR recorded last year. His defensive performance has further compounded these issues; his fielding at first base was among the lowest in the league, coupled with subpar base running metrics.
Part 4/8:
Despite these downward trends, Alonzo is reportedly asking for a minimum of six years at $200 million. This request seems rather unrealistic when comparing it to current valuations in the market—about $8 million per WAR would suggest Alonzo is worth closer to $125 million over six years, and even that is contingent on maintaining his production levels. His actual worth may be better suited to a four or five-year contract at $25 million average annual value.
Alex Bregman: A Slumping Star
Part 5/8:
Next, we turn our attention to Bregman. Although he had a better season overall than Alonzo last year, his performance showcased troubling patterns. Bregman finished with a WAR of 4.1 yet exhibited declines in numerous critical metrics, including a drop in his OPS and home runs. Bregman’s expected metrics indicate he's trending toward being more of a slap hitter, incongruent with the expectations of a corner infielder commanding top dollar.
Part 6/8:
Like Alonzo, Bregman has set his sights on a $200 million contract, though the exact years he is targeting remain unclear. At 31 years old—and after three consecutive years of declining offensive output—Bregman’s wish for a lengthy commitment could be seen as problematic for any prospective team. While he has averaged around 4.5 WAR over the past three seasons, making him theoretically worth $36 million a year, it is difficult to justify a six-year deal based on recent performance, especially considering his defensive contributions are also suspect and reliant on his aging body.
The Impending Dilemma
Part 7/8:
The parallel between Alonzo and Bregman is stark, as both seem out of touch with market realities. If they continue to cling to their lofty demands, there is a risk of becoming another statistic in a recent trend of big-name veterans remaining unsigned as spring training approaches.
This potential outcome is not desired, as it could hinder their career paths dramatically. However, the current trajectory does suggest that unless they are willing to adjust their expectations significantly, they may face a hard truth come contract negotiations.
Conclusion: What Lies Ahead?
Part 8/8:
In closing, the crucial question remains: Are Pete Alonzo and Alex Bregman truly worth the contracts they are asking for? Fans are left to ponder whether their favorite teams should make such commitments or encourage the players to temper their expectations.
As the winds of free agency whip through the MLB landscape, only time will tell how this situation unfolds—will the veterans find suitors willing to meet their demands, or will they need to recalibrate in order to secure their future contracts in the league? The conversation is wide open, and the comments are yours for the taking.