Talk to bankers they think like bankers. Go to central bankers and they think like central bankers.
I cant tell you the number of research articles I read by the central banking establishment (and economists) that state how the stability and value of the USD comes from the central bank. It is aburd but that is their thinking.
Equally absurd is to think the USD is going to crash and BTC will be the beneficiary. This is a new spin on the same bullshit. The BTC maxis were proven wrong.
BTC did not hold up against 40 year CPI highs. So it failed in the face of inflation so now it will excel if we get hyperinflation?
THe USD did not crash regardless of how bad things got.
The beneficiary of economic collapse is the USD> Whether you subscribe to the milkshake theory or follow capital flows, the answer is clear: any economic catastrophe see people piling into the USD and USD denominated assets.
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USD will crash, but only after all other fiat currencies crash. USD will be the last one standing before it gives up the ghost (so to speak).
Will USD merely switch media and go from physical media (paper and coins) to digital (as in CBDC)? Will USD be replaced by a rival? (CNY is the odds-on favorite, but that isn't a given.)
Will USD be murdered by trading partners who hold grudges? Will USD be killed by its own controllers?
Whatever happens to fiat currencies and USD over the next few years, USD is toast-- but only after all others fall.
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You are treating USD as a currency. When most of the USD is in the form of other assets, it no longer is a currency. Hence, it has taken on proportions that we have never seen before.
The currency will fail but the unit of account might not. It is more like a measurement these days.
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This is true. And I had been referring to USD as a currency.
It does double-duty as a unit of account as well. A unit of account is similar to a weight or a distance. As a unit of account, USD may as well be like a kilogram or a mile. This will continue just out of habit. But the currency will fail some day.
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Yes and following your logic, talk to BTC Maxis and they’ll think like BTC Maxis.
I land somewhere in the middle, believing that in a scenario of hyperinflation, we will see dollar denominated assets inflate and that includes BTC.
I don’t buy into the USD hyperinflating and crashing. However, we’re gonna see some bad shit. I think high levels of prolonged inflation is very likely
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The business cycle remains undefeated. That is bad shit happening and a cleansing. This is what an economic move down does.
Depends upon what prolonged is. There is not the money out there to sustain the higher prices and the Fed is looking to pull things way back.
That doesnt mean we get a change by the next CPI but the fallout (results) from the actions over the last will hit by year end or early 2024.
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The cleansing is just as important as the boom. As with living organisms (including human beings), toxicity needs to be flushed from the system before good health can be restored.
This requires momentary discomfort, but that can't be helped. Instead, we get denied the momentary discomfort only to deal with a protracted discomfort later. People knew this in 1921, but it seems like an ancient mystery to people since.
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That is true. People think they can stop the business cycle and alter it. People want the boom without the bust.
Thousands of years shows the bix cycle is undefeated.
When the downhill slide starts, prices decline as things fall in value.
It is the money on one side, assets on the other of the see saw.
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