The news cycle right now is talking about bailouts and the FED and how the U.S. economy is gearing up for more record-setting prints.
The only way out of this crisis is for the FED to go back to quantitative easing. The hardcore whipsaw of QE to QT (Quantitative Tightening) has caused banks to lose billions upon billions of dollars in assets under management.
The problem? These assets under management (AUM) are customer deposits. The banks deployed this money into various bonds, thinking that the FED policies weren't going to whipsaw in the manner that they did. Banks didn't predict an economic future like this, which is quite ironic because people in Crypto have been yelling this from the mountain tops like there was no tomorrow. We've been doing that since the inception of Bitcoin.
$1M Bitcoin in the Next 90 Days?
Balaji is a famous figurehead in the crypto space. The former CTO of Coinbase, he has been a voice of incredible reason and great predictions on Twitter.
Many speculate that he holds a ridiculous amount of Bitcoin and his net worth is over $1B. We don't have any concrete figures on that, but people are quite confident based on past tweets and info about Balaji.
He recently posted a Tweet stating that he was betting $1M worth of Bitcoin that BTC would be worth $1M in the next 90 days.
His reasoning? He thinks we're on the verge of a massive economic meltdown. Banks are going under and we're about to see massive hyperinflation in the United States.
That's how we get to $1M... Through hyperinflation of the USD. It also means that the cost of goods and prices of other assets will rise accordingly.
Do I believe this is possible?
Not really. I think the U.S. is a very large ship and they have a lot of options to get themselves out of trouble. The thing is, they're in big trouble. Someone's gotta get stuck holding the bag. In history, this has always been the American Taxpayer.
Things are different though. We have social media and the general population is a lot more financially savvy than they used to be - although that isn't saying a whole lot.
What's Going to Happen?
I've asked people I know IRL to tell me what they think is happening with banks and their overall opinion. People are aware of the news cycle but it's shocking how little people understand about the banking system - the place where they literally hold all of their wealth and future financial wellbeing.
I also know a few bankers IRL. People who work at banks in various positions.
These people have always told me that they don't trust Bitcoin. They think it's digital jargon and will eventually go to 0 because there are no trusted intermedaries.
They are biting their tongues when it comes to this banking crisis.
Sure, BTC has no trusted intermediaries, but do banks have trusted intermediaries either? I think the trusted part of that equation is missing. Banks are simple intermediaries that do whatever they want. Regulators are asleep at the wheel and aren't even properly watching and regulating these banks to make sure that they're not doing anything volatile and stupid with depositor capital.
I find the whole situation to be extremely ironic.
What do I think is going to happen next?
While I love to ask other peoples' opinions, I believe we're going to see a bailout across the board. I think a lot of small banks are going to get caught with their pants down and a lot of other banks are going to consolidate (big banks eat small banks).
Hive Fixes This
I believe Hive has a unique opportunity, just like Bitcoin does.
Bitcoin offers us all digital gold. A unique method of accounting. A storehold of value. Something that can't be printed out of thin air and devalued like all other fiat currencies can be.
In an age where we have trust issues with the government, banks and central banks, we need a currency that anyone can use and nobody can control. That's vital.
Hive has a unique value proposition too - imagine that you are unbanked in some corner of the world. You probably would have a really hard time even getting your hands on Bitcoin.
The crazy thing is that Hive offers you the ability to slowly grind and build up your own little bank on the internet. Imagine if you started creating content, using apps like Splinterlands or LeoFinance... Imagine if you found a way to build up some capital in savings and start earning 20% on HBD deposits and 12% on your HIVE POWER.
This is like your own little bank that you've created. Separate from your local power structures and entirely in your own control. It's something that nobody can take away from you and it's something that sweat equity alone can build.
Now, for some of us we can even take it to that next step. If we are banked, then we can invest and accelerate our actions with dollars to make it even more effective.
Bitcoin doesn't have this quality. Yes, it has the quality of being a good storehold of wealth, but it doesn't have the quality of allowing you to earn and build with sweat equity alone. You can't really stack sats anywhere with just sweat equity.
Hive, however, has that unique value prop. Web3 has that unique value prop. I am excited and scared about the state of the global economy. The one thing I am massively grateful for is having carved out a niche in this Web3 economy.
While central bankers try to fix this mess they created, we have our own web3 economy that we can build and take control of our own financial well being.
Stay calm and Hive on.
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I definitely do not believe Bitcoin is going to $1M USD in under 90 days. The mere idea of the USD hyperinflating in that short a period of time would cause global catastrophe that could plunge everyone into the worst economic depression the world has ever seen - and that would impact everyone, even the so-called Bitcoin maxis who don't acknowledge how reality actually works. No one is actually safe from the fallout. You can't use Bitcoin to pay rent, most utilities companies don't accept it, you can't use it to pay for gasoline or car insurance to pay for a vehicle. People don't see the truth through their own egos.
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I just read this after writing my post. Your post is better. But they both say the same thing I believe.
Hive fixes this.
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I think for the rest of the world, Hive presents a unique value proposition that cannot be missed because it's much desired right now. USD is indeed a large ship and won't sink anytime soon.
The combination of Bitcoin and Hive is formidable, indeed. Even gold had silver as a companion form of real money.
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That analogy fits quite well with regards to Hive and Bitcoin. Hive compliments many shortcomings of Bitcoin
Talk to bankers they think like bankers. Go to central bankers and they think like central bankers.
I cant tell you the number of research articles I read by the central banking establishment (and economists) that state how the stability and value of the USD comes from the central bank. It is aburd but that is their thinking.
Equally absurd is to think the USD is going to crash and BTC will be the beneficiary. This is a new spin on the same bullshit. The BTC maxis were proven wrong.
BTC did not hold up against 40 year CPI highs. So it failed in the face of inflation so now it will excel if we get hyperinflation?
THe USD did not crash regardless of how bad things got.
The beneficiary of economic collapse is the USD> Whether you subscribe to the milkshake theory or follow capital flows, the answer is clear: any economic catastrophe see people piling into the USD and USD denominated assets.
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USD will crash, but only after all other fiat currencies crash. USD will be the last one standing before it gives up the ghost (so to speak).
Will USD merely switch media and go from physical media (paper and coins) to digital (as in CBDC)? Will USD be replaced by a rival? (CNY is the odds-on favorite, but that isn't a given.)
Will USD be murdered by trading partners who hold grudges? Will USD be killed by its own controllers?
Whatever happens to fiat currencies and USD over the next few years, USD is toast-- but only after all others fall.
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You are treating USD as a currency. When most of the USD is in the form of other assets, it no longer is a currency. Hence, it has taken on proportions that we have never seen before.
The currency will fail but the unit of account might not. It is more like a measurement these days.
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This is true. And I had been referring to USD as a currency.
It does double-duty as a unit of account as well. A unit of account is similar to a weight or a distance. As a unit of account, USD may as well be like a kilogram or a mile. This will continue just out of habit. But the currency will fail some day.
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Yes and following your logic, talk to BTC Maxis and they’ll think like BTC Maxis.
I land somewhere in the middle, believing that in a scenario of hyperinflation, we will see dollar denominated assets inflate and that includes BTC.
I don’t buy into the USD hyperinflating and crashing. However, we’re gonna see some bad shit. I think high levels of prolonged inflation is very likely
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The business cycle remains undefeated. That is bad shit happening and a cleansing. This is what an economic move down does.
Depends upon what prolonged is. There is not the money out there to sustain the higher prices and the Fed is looking to pull things way back.
That doesnt mean we get a change by the next CPI but the fallout (results) from the actions over the last will hit by year end or early 2024.
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The cleansing is just as important as the boom. As with living organisms (including human beings), toxicity needs to be flushed from the system before good health can be restored.
This requires momentary discomfort, but that can't be helped. Instead, we get denied the momentary discomfort only to deal with a protracted discomfort later. People knew this in 1921, but it seems like an ancient mystery to people since.
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That is true. People think they can stop the business cycle and alter it. People want the boom without the bust.
Thousands of years shows the bix cycle is undefeated.
When the downhill slide starts, prices decline as things fall in value.
It is the money on one side, assets on the other of the see saw.
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I see this, and this is why I am here. I bnought Bitcoin but before makerdao I coldn't figure out how to earn. Once I came to Steemit I saw this sweat equity and the other unique things like delegation. Defi is also a potent earner. we have options here we don't have with Bitcoin, but Hive curation and HBD interest are the least volatile and seemingly, less risky. I say that because my concept of risk has turned on it's head. you are very far ahead of many with your understanding and I agree that while Americans are more knowlegeable now then in 2008, there is still far to go.
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