Here are two things you are going to see in the future:
- The EU will collapse
- Trump will get blamed because of his tariffs
For years I have espoused how the EU is done. It has nothing to do with Trump. In fact, even if he didn't win the election, it was going to happen.
At the heart of this is the euro, a currency that is on the edge of collapse. In fact, this is something that is espoused by the President of the ECB.
At the heart of this is the marxist agenda of the Europeans. They are ardent supporters of the cancel culture. This dates back to the end of World War 2 when financial and economic analysts were threated for telling the truth about things such as currency. Is it any wonder many collapsed over the last decade.
When was the last time a European firm put out research detailing the perils to the euro? How about journalists?
Instead, we have a great deal about how it will rival the US dollar and will be an international contender for the global reserve currency.
It is all a lie.
Then, to quote James Carville, itsn the economy stupid.
The End of the EU: Blame Trump
The EU economy is in shambles. For the last year, many (outside the EU of course) have espoused that it is in a recession. So far, nothing from the powers that are. Over the next few years, we are going to see this economic region push the boundary of depression. Things are going to get very bad.
Here is where Trump will be an ideal fall guy. They will blame his bullying and tariffs as the reason for the Europeans economic woes.
The reality is the parasitic behavior extends decades into the past. It was Trump at pushed the Europeans members to increase their spending on defense, something that came in handy when Putin decided to enter Ukraine.
Germany is the largest economy and it is cooked. The automotive sector accounts for a bit under 1/5th the nation's GDP. That is imploding. The net zero initiative has killed that economy, with energy costs 4x that of the United States.
The EU has the most restrictive trade in the world. They make the Chinese look welcoming. Not only are there tariffs, the entire union is regulation heavy. They implement a massive taxation system through fines, especially of technology firms.
Speaking of technology, this is the fatal blow.
Where's The Technology
We are in a technological age. On this end of things, the EU is competing with Africa.
Here is a question, who is largest technology company in the EU? My guess was SAP. Actually, by market cap, it is ASML which is actually a manufacturer.
This is a problem. If we look at the largest 100 companies by revenues, not a single technology firm is in the Top 100 (from Wikipedia).
When we think of technology companies, we come up with:
- Apple
- Meta
- Amazon
- Nvidia
What do they have in common? They are all in the US.
Then we have:
- Tencent
- Alibaba
- Baidu
- Xioami
- Foxconn
What is the commonality there? These are all Chinese companies.
But where are the Europeans?
It appears this is a question they started to ask themselves. Perhaps, with the advancement of AI, it is time to get into the game. This was the conclusion, as the EU and France pledged $200 billion to AI development. The goal is to challenge the US and China.
Good luck on that one.
To start, the Trump administration just got $500 billion in commitments for AI infrastructure development. Since that is future commitments, let us stick with spending we know which will come through.
Unfortunately, for the Europeans, according to the Financial Times, 4 American firms are going to spend $300 billion in 2025 alone.
Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet forecast massive capex despite investor concerns about returns and DeepSeek
Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta have reported combined capital expenditure of $246bn in 2024, up from $151bn in 2023. They forecast spending could exceed $320bn this year as they compete to build data centres and fill them with clusters of specialised chips to remain at the forefront of AI large language model research.
How is the EU going to compete in a technological age when there are no major technology firms?
Accepting Blame
Will the leadership of the EU admit they screwed up? Of course not. This is not what politicians or bureaucrats do.
There are other issues, such as democraphic, that are also hindering the forward progress of the country. That said, the economic destruction is going to come from policies that are repeatedly proven to fail. The EU is suffering under the weight of its own policies, allowing even a relatively newcomer in China to surpass it.
Since the region cannot compete for technology, it has to attack. American technology firms have paid tens of billions in penalities to the EU. It is a taxation system that brings in nice amounts of revenue. If, however, this is addressed, it could sink the entire region.
As mentioned, the automotive industry is going away. The Chinese will end up dominating, at the expense of the German manufacturers. This plunge already started.
The debt levels are only increasing, with the ability to sell the bonds diminishing. US banks are not loading up on ECB debt, something that I guess is being mimicked by the Japanese. For this reason, austerity might hit, although they will default before that time.
Here is where NATO might be of assistance. Nothing covers a default like a war. That could be a reason why many leaders in Europe appear intent on setting off WW3.
Chistine Lagarde is a long time EU operative. People like her will stand in front of the camera and blame everyone other than those who blew things up.
I predicted the euro would be done by 2030 with the EU declining into 2035. This forecast might not be aggressive enough.
The EU might not make it to 2030.
Posted Using INLEO
I don't think EU will collapse, especially not by 2030 :)
Yes Europe is technologically behind, but in some ways the AI revolution might hit USA and China harder than EU. The reason in my mind is that in USA people work more hours and take less vacation than Europe same with China. What are we going to do when AI and AI powered robotics will displace a significant percentage of our workforce? At least Europeans are already getting used to handling high un-employment
I am glad my ancestors left Europe over 200 years ago. !BBH