2 months ago I gave an outlook on the DXY which has once again been confirmed
This comes after my first outlook over a half a year ago when I predicted the DXY to have a strong rally. In the last post, however, my outlook was negative: the DXY would very likely experience a correction. Here is the chart from last time:
The upwards momentum simply was too strong and too fast to be sustainable. But the index also intersected a strong resistance (upper yellow trend line) which was an obvious indication of a set back. The current chart looks like this:
The index still has not reached the expected correction area of about 103. Here is a middle strong support which I would expect the DXY to hold. The correction happened exactly as expected so far, so if it continues it would reach its maximum downward area at around new year. Since the DXY has a very strong 1-2-3 pattern, it is almost guaranteed that we will see some sort of a 3 wave pattern (top) as outlined in the chart above.
As you can see this could last for 1-1.5 years, however. This is a meso movement which will very likely be the top for DXY on the macro time scale. The peak is expected to happen in 2024 or 2025 which will then be followed by a very strong correction back to at least the 96 area.
As mentioned in the last post this is all part of the larger picture of a declining dollar:
We can expect the DXY to crash after this to the 60 area sometime after 2030.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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@tobetada pretty well illustrated macro picture using DXY! I like the statement at the end "...sometime after 2030", you might want to pin the post until then 😄
thanks, yes it's a pretty long term outlook
Great chart work. Cheers!
I don't trust cryptocurrencies as much as I used to. It does not rise with positive news, but at the slightest negative news, they all fall very badly.
this is because we are in a bear market currently. Also, centralized systems like FTX first have to fail to make people realize that the true value of crypto is in decentralization.
Hehe no lies
I think you helped me understand more about longer term trends. Cheers.
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