Nobody knows for sure of course, but with what is known so far, it seems that people came together in family groups for worship/religious purposes. As the gatherings grew, agriculture was developed to facilitate the gatherings. Then cities grew up as centers of...
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manufacturing and trade. So tribal and city state type governments are natural human governments. But somewhere along the way, some cities, and some tribes wanted to dominate others, and they formed the first states as instruments of control and organization.
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I think it's more likely people gathered in sizes larger than families to protect against rival groups. This explains why Neanderthals died out. They never organized and in spite of superior physicality and possibly intelligence, they were overwhelmed by superior numbers.
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Then the sizes of groups snowballed from there due to the ever-growing competition. Nothing smaller than a state would have a chance of survival.
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