Without good insight into truth and myth in the rhetoric it is hard to say. Last data I saw was that Saudi Arabia was being hard pressed to ramp up production beyond where it was. Libya, Angola and Venezuela are still in shortfall, though Libya seems to be back in business. No idea how much will actually come from Iran. Russia can increase but it is an unknown. Pipeline bottlenecks in Permian Basin continue. Syncrude plant in Alberta is not back on stream. All of that points to a shortfall.
Yet the talking heads are talking an over supply. I do not see it yet.
The best way to understand this is read everything you can in OilPrice.com. Latest article from Rosneft is an expectation of $80 for Brent for Christmas = a little higher than it is now.
Without good insight into truth and myth in the rhetoric it is hard to say. Last data I saw was that Saudi Arabia was being hard pressed to ramp up production beyond where it was. Libya, Angola and Venezuela are still in shortfall, though Libya seems to be back in business. No idea how much will actually come from Iran. Russia can increase but it is an unknown. Pipeline bottlenecks in Permian Basin continue. Syncrude plant in Alberta is not back on stream. All of that points to a shortfall.
Yet the talking heads are talking an over supply. I do not see it yet.
The best way to understand this is read everything you can in OilPrice.com. Latest article from Rosneft is an expectation of $80 for Brent for Christmas = a little higher than it is now.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Rosneft-Sees-Oil-At-80-By-Christmas.html