If Ukraine loses the war, it takes a couple of hours to take over Moldova as Moldova has no army (what they call army is only good for demonstration purposes and not more). Then Russia is at the border of Romania a country that has the longest border with Ukraine on land and water. That means Russia is at the border of NATO.
Then what's next?
Looks like Russia has the US's support (no one can deny that) and growing nicely.
What does Trump want?
Vance threw some heavy accusations at some European countries, totally false by the way, when he spoke in Munich.
What does the US want?
Trump wants 50% of the mineral extraction. He's already said it. It's literally a shake down.