Your writing is great!
Your arguments not so much.
Such as, what reason do you have for saying that what you have outlined above is why half your country voted for President Trump?
Shall we make it 20 sbd? but add the clause that if he leaves office due to injury, illness or death that the wager is void.
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First I have to say thanks for the compliment - coming from someone else who I think is a dam good writer, somehow means more. I would also have to admit that I "mostly" agree with you as it relates to Israel - I do think the Jewish military have pushed way past the limits of defense, and can no longer just say they are protecting themselves from an insurgency. That being said, anyone who believes Gaza, the West Bank, and Jerusalem should somehow be "given back" to Palestine, would also have to advocate giving all of the Americas back to the Native Americans - not to mention they are forgetting the brutal, Jew hating, f'd up history of the last 20 centuries. I have studied the Six Day War - for that alone they gain concession from me.
Now to the fun stuff...
You seem to have lost that aura of confidence, what happened to betting on a second term? Now its hedges against injury, illness, or death - sounds like a change of heart to me... ;)
I would definitely concede death, but injury and illness just seem like something the orange clown would "fake" when the house of cards that is his presidency, comes crashing down. Lets say if he is charged/impeached "prior" to resigning in disgrace - I mean falling ill to some mysterious virus, or an unfortunate golfing accident, I win...
To answer your question I'm gonna borrow a paragraph from @mindhawk 's latest post - he does a great job laying it out...
This is exactly what trump supporters worry about too!