Hi, I haven't been watching games lately, I did at the start of Brazilian serie A. Honestly its not that hard, no information overload, because for the most part they are very boring (the games).
Im going to keep comparing stats and see what comes out of it, but watching some games is key for me, so I have to go back and do that. It's going to take a few weeks to catch up thou :l
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Personally I am wary of using stats as the basis for punting because I think the bookies mainly base their odds on stats so you are trying to beat them at their own game and they are usually better at it. I use stats for confirmation of theories and strategies but not as a primary source if that makes sense. For instance if a teams attacking style changes when player A is in the team they might get more corners or shots on goal, but the bookies stats might not pick that up when he is in or out of the team. That is where you find your edge.
I tottaly get that, and usually assume it's a win when teams play with reserves, which doesn't always happen.
They do base their odds on stats I have noticed that, and honestly stats like corners, offsides are not good for much, when it comes to predict 1x2. I've used alot the combination of pass success, shots per game and ball possession% to predict outcomes, which also plays into the bookies odds. Around 55/45 ratio with a big part of the wins being 1.3 odds But lately I've been studing with goal diference and the home advantage calculation, I think im on to something lol
Like with any other method, using stats or technical theory, you have to implement the same everygame, so you can see the results after 100 games. I haven't been doing this. Every game it's a diferent strategy, and the results have been disapointing.
It's going to take me a while to find one or two more things I can rely on.