Attention Keynesian Meddlers - SBD Floor ("Non-Peg") Is Working As Designed

in #sbd7 years ago (edited)

SBD 1.jpg

Don't let "The Wealth Of Nations" hit you on the way out, mini-Krugmans.

First, let's get something out of the way.

SBD isn't pegged. It has a price floor. That price floor is a minimum of $1 of Steem via the conversion tool. This has always worked, would be working now (if implemented to the UI again), and will theoretically always work. SBD will never be below $1, at least not materially, or for any substantial period of time.

There, case closed. The "peg" is not a peg, it's a floor, and it's working as well now as it always has. You are demonstrably wrong if you think otherwise. You disagree with reality. /Thread.

Now, let's get one more thing out of the way. The Steem White Paper is not a bible (and, it's a bit long.) Just because something is in there, doesn't mean it's gospel. 52/104 week power downs and exponential whale-voting are also in the white paper. How come I don't see arguments for reviving those artifacts? Clearly, the existence of something in the white paper does not make it automatically correct nor immutable (unlike the blockchain itself.)

However, let's continue and make the great concession that SBD is "pegged", even when that is demonstrably false and it is not pegged and has never been pegged, it merely has a price floor.

If you think SBD is (or should be) pegged, and you are complaining about how the peg is broken and not getting fixed, you're blabbering on without having the faintest idea of what you are talking about. The "peg" is working perfectly to normalize the price of SBD and has already cut price by 85% in the last 3 months.

SBD.png

That's it, end of debate. SBD are working perfectly. The increase in supply as more people are posting to receive the higher value payouts has massively inflated the supply and market cap of SBD, leading to an 85%+ crash from around $15 to $2.25 today.

SBD 3.png

Even the precious whitepaper specifically disavows two-way conversion. Without it there is no, and never was, a peg.

I don't know what else to tell you.

Don't be like Krugman.

SBD 2.jpg

Yes, Krugman, you have indeed been a complete waste of space your entire career.

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No, it isn't pegged, but there is no clear argument that it is falling because the system is working to get SBD down to $1. It is more likely to be tracking the general trend of the market. SBD has nearly identical trend charts to all 30th-50th place coins over the last month. When you consider that a dozen other coins, including Dogecoin, have had the same price movements, it becomes hard to argue that the value of SBD is being driven lower by design.







Consider the proportion of each day's reward pool that prints in Steem vs SBD.

Right now, it's twice as much value roughly in SBD. It was previously 3x (maybe higher? don't feel like mathing) as much at the recent peak.

It's pretty hard not to draw a line between "massively increasing over-supply (by value)" and "massively decreasing price".

However, I cannot disagree with the chart comparisons. I think the proof will be when SBD doesn't resume a bull run past the old peak while most other coins do, owing to its (future) much higher supply.

Good points, thanks.

I don't think that is unreasonable. I would probably draw that conclusion as well if the trends were so consistent. The market is pretty tightly coupled right now, especially SBD and Steem. I think better proof would be if we saw a divergence of the two. That's what I am hoping for.

It's also worth noting that:

  1. Those coins are much higher, SBD is not a top 50 coin.
  2. Every one of those coins has something SBD doesn't - a reason to exist that has speculative upside (ie: that isn't "can be converted to $1 USD worth of Steem")

If people get more than they should, they will not complain :-)
Good thing if SBD is fixed at 1$, it could be competition to bitUSD and Tether.

Get out of this nonsense and fantasy of competition to bitUSD and Tether, a traders only true friend to maintain value is a conversion back to respective fiat, whether that is USD, GBP, etc,...These pegged base assets are doom to fail or out fraud, for now there isn't system within crypto that can maintain the legality of pegged asset...The other narrative of appeal to vendors is another fantasy and nonsense story, SBD is far better off as a floating currency with a guaranteed floor of 1 USD and imaginable upside, lets the traders, speculators and investors determine its value and innovation within the Steem ecosystem give it more use case...We have this fantasy that writers/ bloggers/ vloggers give Steem ecosystem value or add further value, that's nonsense, its the traders, speculators and investors, the bloggers/ writers content to add value, Steem has to a be a subscription base platform where readers readily pay fees to access the content...

Great SBD rant! While I don’t understand the inner workings of this market, I can certainly tell from where I’m sitting that the SBD don’t need to be messed with. They seem to be working just fine for my taste and I’m happy to see them to continue operating this way moving forward! Thanks for the post!

Great read, thanks.

I love this! @lexonical SBD is never pegged. It rather have a floor price of 1$. I got that!

"The steem whitepaper is not a bible and is not immutable unlike the blockchain" - coming to think of it, wouldn't it be a good idea to have it on the Blockchain in an updated version ? When I search I can only find the posts dating from 5-7 month ago (or from 2016). Too bad there's not a more active thread around the current code base and how it should be described in an up-to-date version of the whitepaper.

Thank you but I was indeed referring to the August 2017 version, not the previous one from 2016.
My impression is that even the August 2017 one is not completely in line with the actual codebase running.

"The steem whitepaper is not a bible and is not immutable unlike the blockchain" - coming to think of it, wouldn't it be a good idea to have it on the Blockchain in an updated version ? When I search I can only find the posts dating from 5-7 month ago (or from 2016). Too bad there's not a more active thread around the current code base and how it should be described in an up-to-date version of the whitepaper.

“The "peg" is working perfectly to normalize the price of SBD and has already cut price by 85% in the last 3 months.”

In the context of the overall market correction this seems a bit of an exaggeration. When normalized against STEEM a bit of a different picture emerges. The floor appears to be the price of STEEM and not $1 of STEEM. Do you believe this is this is a psychological level at which point the market forces step in?

Yes, I think in the short-term, the market is irrational, and can stay that way longer than you can remain solvent. In the long-term, I can't see any explanation for SBD remaining above $1 worth of converted Steem, especially given how fast the total supply is increasing.

You are correct this mirrors the general correction. The proof will be if SBD can resume a bull run when other coins with actual projects/uses do. I think it if does, it will end in tears for speculators. We'll see.

Great post thanks for sharing

Keynesian economics have been dominant for so long that some establishment ‘experts’ can’t even accept that the world has passed them by.

Reading your posts and with the level you earn rewards is so astonishing. It is very hard thing for the newbies to get.

Great post thanks for sharing

Amazing Post!

Very interesting post ..

Courage is the basis of everything when you find courage and you find love and find the ability to succeed

Thanks for the information, i have learnt a lot on this post and my doubt has been cleared. Now i know better why beloved SBD goes fluctuating. Nice

Amazing post

Actually had forgotten most of my Managerial Economics degree (from over 10 years ago) until i started reading the steem white paper recently and suddenly, suddenly, it was like.... Ohhh yea that, that's why we care...

Oh, this post gives me an different view on the issue mentioned. Thanks.

I've always believed that while sbds are above 1$ it makes the platform more attractive for newcomers.

Good post, let me resteem, visit my blog. Thank you, happy to work.

Don't get KRUGGED, learn Austrian Economics.

I like your post. Don't let "The Wealth Of Nations" hit you on the way out, mini-Krugmans.

I wish I joined when it first started. :( Three months in and the prices has decreased from 3.82 to 2.25. Not too bad. I met great people and even got my creativity going in my posts. The way you explained it makes me feel better. Thanks for helping us understand Steemit and the block chain. Appreciated :)
Joy

Have a look at Maker Dai which will take over the SBDs first mover advantage (if it hasn't already)

It's not about Keynesian economics vs free market. It's about stable crypto that can bring commerce to the platform.

"It's about stable crypto"

Nobody cares about stability if there is a price floor and there is effectively only upside.

I just like to bash at Krugman.

I haven't heard of a single vendor wanting to come to Steem but can't because of "SBD volatility". Where are all the vendors who wanted a pegged asset when it was actually pegged? This is the typical canard I hear, but where is the demand other than hypothetical?

I don't know what tell for thanks your post very very interest. I like it

Thanks for getting that out of the way.

Listening to opinions will keep you sick, stupid and poor

So gentle men

I never had much use for Keynesian economics, and here's a nice illustration why.

Independently of this, it would be nice if SBD were fairly stable, at least if we every have ambitions of having an actual economic marketplace inside the Steemit ecosystem.

"at least if we every have ambitions of having an actual economic marketplace inside the Steemit ecosystem."

There appears to be next to no demand for this currently.

By the time there is, SBD will have over-printed itself (and isn't that useful except for $1 of Steem), and should be cheap again.

Nobody laments upside risk, only downside.

I think Paul Krugman is an orthodox. What is your opinion?

The precious whitepaper clearly mentions that a peg is intended, but it is imperfect. I've cited that two-way conversion segment before as well, but now I'm beginning to wonder whether @smooth is correct in that a severely gimped reverse conversion mechanism would actually set us in the right direction and achieve the peg more quickly.

From my observations, people that are against the peg like that SBD is worth more than a dollar. We don't have to peg the SBD to a dollar. We can peg the SBD to 2 dollars (for example) :P

Having a peg is obviously better than not having a peg, and I can see where the proponents of the peg are coming from in term of having a stable base on which to offer services without having to resort to on-the-fly conversions or even having to worry about price fluctuations at all.

Nice post
Follow back plzz

the arguments I have read for this 'pegging' are to have a stable currency for an economy built on steemit. Let me give you an example. I pay 10 SBD for a months subscription to steemsql. The first month this subscription came in it cost me 70 US$ due to the price of SBD. My monthly gym membership doesnt cost me that much. Now at current prices this will cost me us$ 22. Without a stable price on SBD its difficult to run an business where people know what they will be paying each time for a product or service. For this reason, I understand and accept this reason for pegging SBD.

Now let me change hats. I am an author on steemit and spend many hours preparing an analysis before I do a post. When the price of SBD is higher, I win......simple.

So that leaves me as one of the undecided on what is the best course of action for SBD. My preference, let the markets decide.

Which brings me to my next point. The markets are deciding and as shown with other charts, the price of SBD is following a trend that other coins are following and when it hits $1, well lets see if it does stay there!

As for the whitepaper - I read it some time ago and know at the time it was out of date. For some reason I did think steemit brought out a new one, guess I was dreaming...

Best line in my opinion is this:

The Steem White Paper is not a bible (and, it's a bit long.) Just because something is in there, doesn't mean it's gospel.

Bitcoin is facing this issue by making the bitcoin whitepaper as its bible.

Well written. post. Glad to follow you. I discovered you post after checking the tags of my own post: https://steemit.com/steem/@vimukthi/against-the-price-feed-bias-why-sbd-is-worth-more-than-bitcoin-why-sbd-should-be-left-untouched-interview-with-dan

Yes, Krugman, you have indeed been a complete waste of space your entire career.

Amen!

You'd be better off saying "it isn't pegged" and leaving it at that. Pretty much everything else in this article after that statement is not correct. I would look up the interest rate and the witness bias if you want a better picture of the price manipulation mechanisms for SBD.

Actually, pretty much everything in this post is accurate, including the white-paper revisions, the fact SBD has a price floor not a peg, and the fact that the way it is designed over-prints SBD value and therefore inflates market cap. Since SBD has no project or real use, it's not a stand-alone crypto, it has no justification for this higher market cap and natural market forces render it highly likely to trend back towards it's only use - $1 of Steem conversion.

You are right, that was unfair. I apologize. If it is any excuse it was 4am and I was annoyed about something else. That you for responding civily.
I disagree with a few points, however. Mostly, I think that "That price floor is a minimum of $1 of Steem via the conversion tool." is not accurate. It is more of a soft floor that in the sense that the witnesses can increase the interest to artificially decrease supply, thereby increasing the price. It COULD have a price ceiling if witnesses all decided to increase the bias and print even more of the reward as SBD, flooding the market and causing a dip in price. I argue that stability requires, and is designed to require, the witnesses to use the tools at their disposal (bias and interest).