A topic I get asked a lot is "Should I sell my SBD and if so, when?" The truth is that this question is more complex than even your average request for a crystal ball rental. The reason for that is SBD are, in theory (and often previously also in practice,) a pegged currency. They are not pegged to the US $ technically, but rather pegged to 1 US $'s worth of Steem (admittedly, a minor distinction.)
In the past month, there has been some discussion about whether the SBD peg should be more strongly enforced (scroll to the bottom for links). I've only recently caught up to speed with some of the later posts in this particular saga, but from what I can tell the view of the majority of the witnesses is that SBD should be pegged. Their position is also rather logical - there is no real point to having two volatile coins on one blockchain.
On the other hand, the majority opinion (not by stake, but by users/authors) is to allow SBD to continue to float on the positive end. The idea is that the higher rewards help authors and drive both engagement on the platform and new users. Also, the general philosophy includes a preference for free market forces deciding the price of SBD.
One reason the SBD price is so high can be seen in my recent post about Korean volume - it's huge, for both Steem and SBD. However, it's truly nuts for SBD. I followed the entire CoinMarketCap currency list down to SBD at #228, and not a single coin was even close to turning over as high a percentage of their market cap daily. SBD turned over twice as much, or more, as the closest competitor I found in the top 240.
If you take a look at the following image from CoinMarketCap, you can see where I've written how much of each currency's total market cap (in percentage) is traded in the daily volume.
SBD's volume is over 10x the nearest competitor, and it is way more than 10x the average if you look at the other coins on this page.
Another worrying situation is the increasing divergence of market cap and bitcoin price from the dollar price of SBD. Take a look at the following chart, particularly the area highlighted in red:
What you are seeing above is a near-all-time high in market cap for SBD, even though the dollar price was almost 3x as high 2 months ago. That means if you sold SBD today, or back at $14, you sold at roughly the same market cap or total valuation of SBD.
This is because everyday SBD are produced as the Steem blockchain pays out rewards for posts on Steemit. Very few of these are currently burned, as nobody is using the conversion command (it was recently removed from the GUI, so even uninformed users can't use it) and few SBD are burned for access to the promoted tab. The end result is a higher supply of SBD, so in order to maintain the same market cap, price must continually go down.
This natural effect of supply and demand on SBD is likely what we are seeing trail the price down from recent highs. Add to this the tail risk of the surprise addition of a Steem -> SBD conversion option as proposed and favored by many witnesses, the odd nature of the high volume and it being centered around the Korean Upbit exchange, and on balance I think you have a much higher risk for similar or less reward holding SBD instead of Steem.
Could SBD go much higher, or the Steem/SBD ratio go much higher? Sure, and that's probably what will happen if Bitcoin continues to retake its gains toward 20,000. However, will SBD gain faster than other options and with less risk? At the moment, I'm finding it hard to make that argument.
I won't tell you what to do with your SBD and I'm not bearish on Steem. However, I'm going to start converting the ones I have stashed away into Steem at my earliest convenience. There's zero chance Steem gets pegged, and Steem is fundamentally more useful than SBD.
Here are some posts discussing the potential for repegging from last month; feel free to take the temperature there yourself:
https://steemit.com/witness-category/@reggaemuffin/witness-discussion-sbd-price-and-reverse-peg
https://steemit.com/sbd/@lukestokes/should-sbd-be-a-pegged-asset-if-so-when-should-we-peg-it
https://steemit.com/steem/@aggroed/still-in-defense-of-a-high-sbd-why-witnesses-should-not-implement-steem-to-sbd-conversions-now
I'm not calling a top here (a bit late for that), and I'm sure the market will immediately make me look like an idiot, but that's my take.
In completely unrelated news:
We also have a Radio Station! (click me)
...and a 5000+ active user Discord Chat Server! (click me)
Sources: CoinMarketCap, Bittrex, Aggroed, Reggaemuffin, Lukestokes, Wikipedia
Copyright: CoinMarketCap, Bittrex, Pinterest.com, Hypertomb.com
I can see you have a totally valid point there. SBD was taken as a pegged currency which could be used in the place of $. So if any store is accepting dollar now with the help of steem blockchain it could used SBD and make online payments but from the time its price started increasing, now it seems difficult.
In a short term, it looks like not a very impressive deal for authors and new users but in the long run it will help steem to stablize and scale. It can open a lot of opportunities for different stores who want to accept a low volatile currnecy.
I'm not advocating for either side in this post, just pointing out the facts as I've researched them. There is a risk of SBD getting repegged.
Also, going to piggy back on this top comment for the record:
From a technical view, SBD looks primed for a big jump on the charts. I'm not suggesting that everyone fire-sale their SBD. But, if like me you had rather optimistic price targets previously, you may want to consider reducing them to something more realistic given it is always possible SBD is either forcibly re-pegged or trends back to $1.
How can we encourage more people to join Steemit and the crypto world, especially females?
This is a bogus argument, currently Steem has to bail out the SBD price every time it falls below 1$. And there's been many months where the price was staring to to nudge below 1$. The only reason why SBD enjoys high prices is because investors know that Steem holders have to bail out SBD if it falls below 1$.
A truly "free market" "with no rules" SBD would go to near 0 instantly without Steem backing it.
I would argue that allowing Steem to be converted to SBD is more freemarket than the current system preventing it. Steem investors are subsidizing this silly SBD coin which does not bring the benefits of a stable currency as envisioned in the white paper, and has held back the development of an online markeplace, not to mention the missed opportunity of taking away some of Tether's market share.
Interesting point, and I would assume that the witnesses would make an announcement beforehand, don't you think?
If you see the announcement, it would already be too late to sell before the market moves.
Yikes, you got me spooked, I'll be selling soon.
i don't think a stronger peg can be achieved than the existing one, one can only control the value here but outside market is again going to not take any peg seriously like the existing one.
O Schreck
No one seems to know anything. @titanik
@titanik, why isn't your avatar this picture instead:
However SBD was created by those farming in Steemit...
Holy crap, first time I heard of golos
According to the Steem Whitepaper
The high SBD price is good for the long term, but as the whitepaper says, will make Steem unstable because a higher SBD means you can generate way more Steem tokens, thereby significantly affecting the price and supply of Steem.
Also,
Having a high SBD relative to Steem would increase the amount of debt on the network. If the price is high, people will be trying to get as much SBD as possible and then cashing out.
Having it worth $1 USD adds stability. Sure, you could have it worth more, as long as the total value does not exceed 10% of the Steem marketcap, but then you can't really control it as well. The blockchain will not allow you to convert the SBD to an equivalent value of Steem. As a result, I guess people will just send it off into other cryptos.
everything looks correct, but i do not get the point how more steem is going to get generated since SBD is already pegged to $1 here on steemit and 50% of the reward will always be SP which will take SBD as $1.
talking about the outside conversions, they are only possible upto the extant of total STEEM generated already as rewards, nobody can buy more steem than the generated amount and the post payout will increase with rising value of STEEM not SBD.
so authors can earn extra by coverting to other coins but i do not agree that STEEM circulation is going to be affected by a higher valued SBD.
Correct me if i am wrong,
It has nothing to do with the fixed number. It's like stocks. Think shares. They divide in number as their value increases. They start out as an Initial Public Offering--people can purchase them for what they will.
When people from the outside have the opportunity to purchase steem tokens for their businesses, this will revolutionize the world's economy as larger corporations incorporate crypto currency into their model without even realizing it. They'll do Initial Coin Offerings, and bam. Steem value increases (as does the reward pool).
I posted an article on it awhile ago, that I think may answer some of the economical questions on how it impacts the growth here, if you'd like to read it: Smart Media Tokens Take Over the World
You'll have OUTSIDERS speculating on tokens that are steem tied. It's brilliant. I can't friggin wait.
Nowadays, when you convert SBD to STEEM or SP, blocktrades takes into account the value of SBD from exchanges. That is why people got pissed before, because when they sent their SBD to SP, the conversion was assuming that SBD is valued at $1 USD but on exchanges it was worth $5-$13 USD. So if they had $10 SBD, they were only getting $10 USD worth of SP, as opposed to getting $50-$130 worth of Steem/SP.
Thanks for posting the links. It’s a great debate and for now it feels like a lever d steem. They really should do what they can to increase the cap of Sbd. It would be great if this was a top 50 coin.
deleted..
Probably not worth commenting then.
removed..sorry for that
My feeling is that it's going to be really tough to re-peg it - you'd in effect be leaning against the Korean market.
thanks for share this information
Tel me upvote @titanik
Hi
Good to know. Was wondering if should sell to steem now. You make good case that its time.
I'm stubbornly holding out for a reversal on that nasty red candle, but I don't think a much better time is likely to come along soon, and if it does, it won't be rational but a gamble.
My question is, how does Tether do it on Coinmarketcap? 😂
Tether is a trading instrument, so it is directly turned over for trades every day. It's more like the Dollar itself - not really a fair comparison tbh.
Right. So that brings me to my next question.. How on earth were they planning to stabilise SBD? Trying to mimic the USDT, except the one is a trading instrument, and the other is a straight-up crypto currency. LOL.
Just my opinion, but how can anyone tell that it would be back at $1..
A two way conversion would get it back very quickly, as arbitrage would ensure it.
witnesses are looking for stronger peg, i do not understand the meaning, pardon my ignorance, can you please elaborate what are the additional measures that are going to be taken in order to strengthen the peg.
So far i was thinking that any stronger peg than the existing one cannot be achieved, and i still think if the witnesses somehow achieve a stronger peg, even then the market can still ignore it like the existing one.
P.S.: I am not favorable for any peg other than existing one,
The favored option is to simple add a Steem -> SBD conversion option.
If Steem was $5, you would be able to convert it into 5 SBD. As you might imagine, that would "fix" things awfully quickly.
I totally agree with you
i like this solution, i must say........that way SP will increase much faster.
however going for this solution is similar to getting rid of SBD from the ecosystem. Why will there be both STEEM and SBD if they are same.
That's a good point. We all know (or should know) the intention of SBD was to peg to USD to make commerce easier. As an author, I'd rather get a higher value to my posts, so pegging SBD to USD seems like it would hurt me. The only way it wouldn't hurt me is if it helped the value of Steem increase.
If it's not pegged, why even have two currencies? Yeah, I'm sure smarter people than me are trying to look for a solution that helps everybody. Reducing the value of author payouts seems like a really bad idea from my perspective.
Witnesses have already implied they are ready to peg the other side of the SBD-->Steem conversions, thus this creates a near/medium term catalyst for SBD to go down; HOWEVER, anytime something is so easily logical, and the price does the opposite, you should look for a DIFFERENT catalyst. Is someone in Korea or elsewhere trying to corner the market on SBD right when Steemians are seemingly selling every share? Is there just a wierd craze or promoter there getting people to buy? Maybe forex buyers think SBD is the real Steem? Maybe they are selling out of their crypto, and people doing so think SBD is pegged to the $USD so it's a backdoor out of crypto and into fiat?
You can bet there's an explantion for why SBD can outperform Steem, we just haven't seen a convincing one yet. Until someone comes up with an explanation, it's our experience the odd price movement will continue.
Rec? Don't sell ALL your Steem, let it out in small doses until something comes out of the woodwork.
As a very new user of Steem, i must admit that the USD conversion of SBD was, and is still very attractive. I think that to dismiss this fact, is to possibly dismiss the main reason for Steem's exponential growth in the last few months.
Since the platform is still rather young, I hope SBD stays higher than 1 USD for a long as possible, as much as I can understand the necessity/appeal of it being a pegged currency.
Enjoyed your post, not the first time I find something you write very insightful, thanks for sharing.
Thank you for the praise! Welcome to the platform.
Thanks for sharing the knowledge! Converted mine and now without worries - full ahead steemin'!
Have a wonderful day!
I just converted what I had in sbd to steem and powered it up...
That was informative...
For minnows like myself this would probably not matter much! (Yet!)
I'd like to point out SBD is NOT pegged 1:1 to USD. It is pegged to have at least a value of $1 to 1 SBD. If value is higher than $1 it is ok according to the whitepaper.
I think SBD is in for a tremendous bullrun alongside STEEM, look at my STEEM and SBD price forecast 17.feb.18
Certainly something happening this morning with both SBD and STEEM dropping quite a bit and a lot of volume being traded on Upbit for South Korean Won. I assume they are selling it, but I'm new to currency trading, so I might be reading that incorrectly.
You made an excellence report on steem and SBD here. Thanks.
awesome predections, really great information following you to know more from your posts thank you.
good
Bitcoin bull will also hurt Steem.
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Excellent your gather picture . Really outstanding photo
I suggest, invest in steemit and cashout the rest, enjoy the cash 😂😂
This post has received gratitude of 26.99 % from @appreciator thanks to: @lexiconical.
I love the analysis. Thanks so much for the information. Great to learn more on sbd
Is this an...insult?
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Very important information for SBD seekers, equipped with statistics.
Good job @lexiconical
Aweso!e analysis and prediction. Thanks for sharing the pencil and ruler world of criptocurrency!
thanks i understand steem a bit better now
nick
certified bitcoin professional
I gotta get in on this certifying body. Who do I bribe?
ya its too much improtant information to us....thank u so much....nd gives our more imformation to this topic.....
I was so intrigued by your post that I had to go and stalk your comments and older blog posts..
And I gotta day..
I really respect your position on a lot of things here on Steemit. I don’t wanna be a kiss ass or anything, It’s just nice to find some like minded individuals to follow..
Definitely though provoking stuff in this post here. I’m sure you convinced at least a large handful of people to
Convert their SBD. Ive been waiting for the opportune moment- but it’s probably a hope shot.
Truly looking forward to your future content. Awesome stuff.
Great information and it has given me a much better understanding of Steem and SBD, however I am still very new on Steemit and was wondering, how do you convert SBD to Steem ??
Awesome post! I invite you to visit our blog and vote us back! And of course to enjoy our content :)
tell me @titanik
@lexiconical. Thanks a million for this post.Even though I am still new here and have not make much SBD,I now know where to convert them to steem.This is cool.
I was not aware of such interesting information. I will ask my mentors (witnesses) to clarify this situatio
Very nice Post!
you are creating great content....If you have the time, check out my content! Have a great day ahead!
Good post!
I don't get why someone would buy SBD over $1 USD? Who are these people that are buying SBD over $1 USD? Are they confusing SBD with Steem?
Moreover, why does a currency like SBD have to exist in the first place? Is Steem and Steem Power not more than enough?
Very good idea as far as I'm concerned.
thanks for the crytocurrency news, I'm not sure i should convert sbd to steem or not as I need time to think about it.
I myself am so..confused about the three types of currency available on #Steemit. This article affirms my confidence that I'm not the only one wondering why we need SBD and STEEM.
This topic entails a deeper understanding of cryptocurrency and market trading. Since steem blockchain has been using SBD, Steem and Steem power which are diffirent but related intities it is confusing to users. I think it is a strategy to peg the SBD to at least tame the movements of the price of steem.
@lexiconical
nice photo