You just blindly assume that there's no risk involved, but there is. The Pack prices might as well just drop for now and make a comeback only months later, we've seen that happen before. Especially Vouchers can cause FOFO prices early on.
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I'm planning for the long term. Take a look at the prices of Alpha, Beta, Orbs, Untamed, Dice prices on Hive-Engine. Prices will eventually end up in a profit even it it take some time.
I think my Math is not becoming clear, you now pay in DEC and SPS, wich I both expect to grow in value over the following weeks to a couple of months by 40% for DEC (obsly) and SPS 500% at least (call me crazy), + you need the vouchers + packs on the Engine will be traded at discount to the initial price. It might very well be that your "whales" overpay by a factor of 5x-10x to get into the Pre-Sale with mass. I call that a risk.
I personally expect far bigger gains for SPS. You are being very conservative IMHO.
There are perks that are coming with the extra investment. Getting 6 Doctor Blight Cards and additional airdrops from Chaos Legion Presale is something I am happy looking back.
That leads to minimum $4.40 value for $2 Alpha Packs. Even if I opened the packs now in the past I was forced to HODL Packs because I didn't want to open them without Potions), I could recover the losses through future price appreciation. As a player, I would be using some of these Cards in the game. The rest I can rent to earn some passive DEC.
Even in the case SPS ends up outperform Presale, it could still be treated as a form of diversification which could come in handy. For an example, I could sell a Card at an emergency faster than SPS which I have to wait 7 days for.
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Let's not go another two corners, you've showcased your point rather sufficiently.
It's only a couple of days left now, let's wait and see.
Are you a packs hoarder? :)
So what you're saying is, if you keep, let's say 1 out of 3 packs, you can sell them later (18-24Months) and go break even with that alone? This game is probably not old enough to make a solid case for that, but it might very well be totally true.