It's Thursday night, so that must mean one thing - TIME FOR SOME FOOTBALL!
I have meticulously compiled my rather large database of NFL information with two new weeks of information. I have also adjusted my projections to account for new defensive data and finally have enough minimum data points to start rating rookies!
The results? VERY interesting.
The biggest shakeup has happened in my DST Rankings. Take, for instance, the following Top 5:
| Rank | Change | Team | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | GB | 0.970 |
| 2 | +6 | DEN | 0.917 |
| 3 | +10 | BAL | 0.865 |
| 4 | 0 | NE | 0.858 |
| 5 | +10 | DET | 0.845 |
Notice how Green Bay vaulted to the top of the rankings, even though they had a bad loss on the road at the Vikings and gave up a ton of points on the road at Jacksonville. Notice the common refrain there? On the road. The algorithm loves how even though they have given up points, they have accounted for underestimates in my projections on a rolling eight game average in the 97th percentile of NFL defenses. That is statistically significant.
The same would be true of Detroit. They vaulted up ten spots on their defensive average because of a strong showing of holding Titans players on average below expectations. If the algorithm holds this week, I would expect Detroit/Green Bay to be a low scoring affair, both in fantasy and in game points. As of the time I am publishing this, the game over/under is 47 points. If I lived in Vegas, I might give that a look.
Sometimes, a Garbage Time QB is all you need
And right now, Blake Bortles is shaping up to be an all time great. Below is the overall rankings of my database for Week 3, Ranks 10-17. Notice how Bortles is on the rise, while a guy like Russell Wilson is falling sharply. Seattle is not getting early leads or sustaining any demonstrable offense.
One might argue the same for the Jags, but they just are accumulating crazy fantasy points when they are down big in games. This past week vs. San Diego was no exception. They do get a home game this week, but against a strong #3 ranked DST in my database in the Ravens. If the Ravens get a strong start, look for much of the same from Bortles, and a lot of garbage time points from guys like T.J. Yeldon, Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas.
| Rank | Change | Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Salary | OppDefRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | -2 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | DET | 20.21 | 7700 | 5 |
| 11 | -2 | Julio Jones | WR | ATL | NO | 20.06 | 9500 | 20 |
| 12 | +11 | Blake Bortles | QB | JAX | BAL | 19.80 | 6500 | 3 |
| 13 | +5 | Andy Dalton | QB | CIN | DEN | 19.79 | 5700 | 2 |
| 14 | -9 | Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | SF | 19.74 | 7100 | 22 |
| 15 | -2 | Joe Flacco | QB | BAL | JAX | 19.11 | 6100 | 26 |
| 16 | -1 | Derek Carr | QB | OAK | TEN | 19.04 | 6900 | 21 |
| 17 | +2 | Philip Rivers | QB | SD | IND | 19.00 | 6700 | 27 |
YAY! I have rookies! Finally!
It takes at least three events for me to generate a meaningful gamma curve for a player. I use a historical position average as the first, and Weeks 1 and 2 for the last two. With this, I have enough information to make projections!
As a general warning though, these tend to be conservative. Consider the following snippet from my receiver rankings:
| Rank | Change | Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Salary | OppDefRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | N/A | Sterling Shepard | WR | NYG | WAS | 9.85 | 5500 | 28 |
| 50 | -6 | Kamar Aiken | WR | BAL | JAX | 9.653 | 3100 | 26 |
| 51 | -13 | Jamison Crowder | WR | WAS | NYG | 9.29 | 3800 | 24 |
| 52 | +6 | Cecil Shorts | WR | TB | LA | 8.91 | 3000 | 23 |
| 53 | +1 | Mohamed Sanu | WR | ATL | NO | 8.89 | 5700 | 20 |
| 54 | N/A | Corey Coleman | WR | CLE | MIA | 8.71 | 5300 | 29 |
| 55 | +23 | Kenny Stills | WR | MIA | CLE | 8.57 | 3600 | 32 |
| 56 | N/A | Tajae Sharpe | WR | TEN | OAK | 8.55 | 4700 | 19 |
| 57 | N/A | Tyrell Williams | WR | SD | IND | 8.44 | 4300 | 27 |
I think Tajae Sharpe has a phenomenal matchup this week against the Raiders, and is probably better than an 8.55. However, I just don't have enough data to back up that assumption. At this point without more data, everything is recency bias. I try to project as best as possible grading new players on a historical curve, at first. If in the next few weeks a guy like Sharpe continues to shine, he will be climbing the charts.
The Week 3 Algorithm Draft Kings Optimal Lineup Thurs-Mon
Inputting all of my projected points, salaries, and projections in my custom solver yields the following "optimal" lineup for Week 3:
I think Drew Brees is due for a good week based on a terrible Week 2. He gets a good match at home versus Atlanta for a game that is the 10th anniversary of the first home game in the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina. Look for an amped crowd and a fast running Saints side.
Speaking of a slump buster, I think the numbers might be right to like Jimmy Graham this week. He saw tons more snaps last week, and I think the targets will start to come with more red zone opportunities.
The numbers love Matt Forte, and why wouldn't they? He is being used at an astronomical usage rate for the Jets that I haven't seen in numbers this early since 2012 Adrian Peterson. I like him to have a good week, but am aware these past two weeks might not be sustainable.
The weirdest plays here have to be Chris Johnson and Terrelle Pryor. It is what the solver said would be best and am rolling with it. If I had to explain this away, who else is getting targets in Cleveland besides Gary Barnidge? Pryor has already been hovering around double digit targets each week but has not yet seen the endzone. With Corey Coleman down for 4-6 weeks and Josh Gordon still on suspension, I like the spot at this salary.
Chris Johnson is my largest question mark. At the $3500 salary and coming off a great week, the algorithm likes his chances for more touches against a shaky Buffalo rushing defense -- Especially at his salary level. I personally am not as sold, but am hoping his great week last week carries over and he sees a decent split of carries. Being up early would help the cause!
Want to use the solver?
You can too! It can be found here, in a shared file through Dropbox.
This is a tool you can use to project an optimal lineup for Week 3 with my custom rankings and Draft Kings salaries. It uses Microsoft Excel's built in Solver feature that will calculate optimal conditions given a certain amount of inputs. The direct link is here, in a shared file through Dropbox. You will need to download and use with Excel on your desktop.
Feel free though to play around with your own custom players and point values, this is your sandbox! Just remember to follow the instructions provided on the sheet to use and reset each time.
REMEMBER, THIS IS NOT ADVICE ON WHAT TO DO WITH YOUR MONEY!
I do not in any way endorse you gambling solely with this information. This is for your mathematical enjoyment! For reminders on how these rankings are generated, please check out my other fantasy pieces here.
Time for my model!
This week, and all weeks in the future, I will show a players change in ranking from the week prior. You can use this new information to gauge players trending in either direction. New players each week will be marked N/A.
My top QB's:
| Rank | Change | Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Salary | OppDefRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | Drew Brees | QB | NO | ATL | 23.4 | 7900 | 18 |
| 2 | 0 | Cam Newton | QB | CAR | MIN | 22.9 | 7800 | 7 |
| 3 | 0 | Andrew Luck | QB | IND | SD | 21.7 | 7600 | 25 |
| 4 | +5 | Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | NO | 21.3 | 7400 | 20 |
| 5 | +1 | Matthew Stafford | QB | DET | GB | 20.9 | 6800 | 1 |
| 6 | -1 | Ben Roethlisberger | QB | PIT | PHI | 20.9 | 7300 | 17 |
| 7 | +6 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | MIA | CLE | 20.8 | 6200 | 32 |
| 8 | -1 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | DET | 20.2 | 7700 | 5 |
| 9 | +10 | Blake Bortles | QB | JAX | BAL | 19.8 | 6500 | 3 |
| 10 | +4 | Andy Dalton | QB | CIN | DEN | 19.8 | 5700 | 2 |
| 11 | -7 | Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | SF | 19.7 | 7100 | 22 |
| 12 | -2 | Joe Flacco | QB | BAL | JAX | 19.1 | 6100 | 26 |
| 13 | -1 | Derek Carr | QB | OAK | TEN | 19.0 | 6900 | 21 |
| 14 | +1 | Philip Rivers | QB | SD | IND | 19.0 | 6700 | 27 |
| 15 | +3 | Eli Manning | QB | NYG | WAS | 18.8 | 7000 | 28 |
| 16 | +5 | Carson Palmer | QB | ARI | BUF | 18.8 | 7200 | 9 |
| 17 | -6 | Alex Smith | QB | KC | NYJ | 18.8 | 5800 | 30 |
| 18 | -1 | Sam Bradford | QB | MIN | CAR | 18.5 | 5300 | 15 |
| 19 | -3 | Jameis Winston | QB | TB | LA | 18.4 | 6000 | 23 |
| 20 | -12 | Kirk Cousins | QB | WAS | NYG | 18.3 | 6400 | 24 |
| 21 | +4 | Blaine Gabbert | QB | SF | SEA | 17.1 | 5000 | 8 |
| 22 | +2 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | QB | NYJ | KC | 17.0 | 5900 | 11 |
| 23 | -3 | Marcus Mariota | QB | TEN | OAK | 16.5 | 5900 | 19 |
| 24 | +3 | Tyrod Taylor | QB | BUF | ARI | 14.9 | 5800 | 10 |
| 25 | N/A | Carson Wentz | QB | PHI | PIT | 14.0 | 5500 | 31 |
| 26 | N/A | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | CHI | 13.8 | 5700 | 14 |
| 27 | -1 | Case Keenum | QB | LA | TB | 12.9 | 5000 | 16 |
| 28 | 0 | Brock Osweiler | QB | HOU | NE | 12.8 | 6000 | 4 |
| 29 | N/A | Trevor Siemian | QB | DEN | CIN | 12.5 | 5100 | 13 |
My top RB's:
| Rank | Change | Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Salary | OppDefRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | Matt Forte | RB | NYJ | KC | 21.34 | 7000 | 11 |
| 2 | +1 | DeAngelo Williams | RB | PIT | PHI | 18.60 | 7500 | 17 |
| 3 | +2 | DeMarco Murray | RB | TEN | OAK | 17.92 | 6300 | 19 |
| 4 | +2 | LeSean McCoy | RB | BUF | ARI | 15.68 | 6500 | 10 |
| 5 | +9 | Lamar Miller | RB | HOU | NE | 14.61 | 7200 | 4 |
| 6 | +18 | CJ Anderson | RB | DEN | CIN | 14.08 | 7300 | 13 |
| 7 | +10 | Frank Gore | RB | IND | SD | 13.83 | 5000 | 25 |
| 8 | +32 | Melvin Gordon | RB | SD | IND | 13.44 | 5800 | 27 |
| 9 | 0 | David Johnson | RB | ARI | BUF | 13.30 | 7700 | 9 |
| 10 | 0 | Eddie Lacy | RB | GB | DET | 13.14 | 6100 | 5 |
| 11 | +2 | Devonta Freeman | RB | ATL | NO | 12.99 | 5800 | 20 |
| 12 | +3 | Latavius Murray | RB | OAK | TEN | 12.81 | 5700 | 21 |
| 13 | +42 | Chris Johnson | RB | ARI | BUF | 12.44 | 3500 | 9 |
| 14 | +11 | TJ Yeldon | RB | JAX | BAL | 12.39 | 5600 | 3 |
| 15 | +3 | Mark Ingram | RB | NO | ATL | 12.20 | 5900 | 18 |
| 16 | +20 | Giovani Bernard | RB | CIN | DEN | 12.13 | 4300 | 2 |
| 17 | +11 | Shane Vereen | RB | NYG | WAS | 12.08 | 3700 | 28 |
| 18 | N/A | Ezekiel Elliott | RB | DAL | CHI | 11.97 | 6900 | 14 |
| 19 | +2 | Isaiah Crowell | RB | CLE | MIA | 11.94 | 4700 | 29 |
| 20 | 0 | Rashad Jennings | RB | NYG | WAS | 11.79 | 5100 | 28 |
| 21 | -10 | Todd Gurley | RB | LA | TB | 11.70 | 7100 | 16 |
| 22 | -10 | Doug Martin | RB | TB | LA | 11.66 | 5700 | 23 |
| 23 | 0 | Jeremy Hill | RB | CIN | DEN | 11.52 | 3700 | 2 |
| 24 | -8 | Ryan Mathews | RB | PHI | PIT | 11.39 | 5800 | 31 |
| 25 | -3 | Darren Sproles | RB | PHI | PIT | 11.31 | 3700 | 31 |
| 26 | +13 | Theo Riddick | RB | DET | GB | 11.22 | 4900 | 1 |
| 27 | +32 | LeGarrette Blount | RB | NE | HOU | 11.05 | 4400 | 6 |
| 28 | +5 | Spencer Ware | RB | KC | NYJ | 11.00 | 5700 | 30 |
| 29 | +5 | Charles Sims | RB | TB | LA | 9.67 | 4900 | 23 |
| 30 | -1 | Justin Forsett | RB | BAL | JAX | 9.58 | 3900 | 26 |
| 31 | +21 | Tevin Coleman | RB | ATL | NO | 8.94 | 4500 | 20 |
| 32 | +17 | Charcandrick West | RB | KC | NYJ | 8.22 | 3500 | 30 |
| 33 | -3 | Duke Johnson | RB | CLE | MIA | 8.16 | 4200 | 29 |
| 34 | +8 | Terrance West | RB | BAL | JAX | 8.09 | 3500 | 26 |
| 35 | +10 | Matt Jones | RB | WAS | NYG | 8.02 | 4100 | 24 |
| 36 | -17 | Thomas Rawls | RB | SEA | SF | 7.76 | 5500 | 22 |
| 37 | -2 | Tim Hightower | RB | NO | ATL | 7.73 | 3300 | 18 |
| 38 | -12 | Carlos Hyde | RB | SF | SEA | 7.21 | 4400 | 8 |
| 39 | +14 | Jeremy Langford | RB | CHI | DAL | 6.74 | 5200 | 12 |
| 40 | -13 | Alfred Morris | RB | DAL | CHI | 6.72 | 3700 | 14 |
| 41 | -10 | Bilal Powell | RB | NYJ | KC | 6.62 | 3400 | 11 |
| 42 | +2 | Christine Michael | RB | SEA | SF | 6.61 | 5000 | 22 |
| 43 | 0 | Chris Thompson | RB | WAS | NYG | 6.23 | 3400 | 24 |
| 44 | +23 | Jay Ajayi | RB | MIA | CLE | 5.93 | 4000 | 32 |
| 45 | +1 | Reggie Bush | RB | SF | ARI | 5.85 | 3200 | 10 |
| 46 | +5 | Travaris Cadet | RB | NO | ATL | 5.59 | 3100 | 18 |
| 47 | N/A | Jalen Richard | RB | OAK | TEN | 5.57 | 3600 | 21 |
| 48 | +9 | James White | RB | NE | HOU | 5.23 | 4200 | 6 |
| 49 | N/A | Derrick Henry | RB | TEN | OAK | 5.00 | 3700 | 19 |
| 50 | +14 | Fozzy Whittaker | RB | CAR | MIN | 4.83 | 3800 | 7 |
| 51 | -10 | Jerick McKinnon | RB | MIN | CAR | 4.79 | 3800 | 15 |
| 52 | +9 | Kenjon Barner | RB | PHI | PIT | 4.70 | 3000 | 31 |
| 53 | N/A | Josh Ferguson | RB | IND | SD | 4.50 | 3000 | 25 |
| 54 | -6 | Lance Dunbar | RB | DAL | CHI | 4.45 | 3000 | 14 |
| 55 | +8 | Andre Ellington | RB | ARI | BUF | 4.42 | 3600 | 9 |
| 56 | N/A | Matt Asiata | RB | MIN | CAR | 4.25 | 3000 | 15 |
| 57 | +11 | Robert Turbin | RB | IND | SD | 4.16 | 3000 | 25 |
| 58 | -11 | Ameer Abdullah | RB | DET | GB | 3.96 | 4600 | 1 |
| 59 | -9 | James Starks | RB | GB | DET | 3.87 | 4000 | 5 |
| 60 | N/A | Deandre Washington | RB | OAK | TEN | 3.75 | 3400 | 21 |
| 61 | -5 | Benjamin Cunningham | RB | LA | TB | 3.73 | 3400 | 16 |
| 62 | -8 | Shaun Draughn | RB | SF | SEA | 3.59 | 3400 | 8 |
| 63 | -1 | Denard Robinson | RB | JAX | BAL | 3.54 | 3000 | 3 |
| 64 | -6 | Alfred Blue | RB | HOU | NE | 3.26 | 3400 | 4 |
| 65 | -5 | Mike Gillislee | RB | BUF | ARI | 3.12 | 3300 | 10 |
| 66 | +5 | Orleans Darkwa | RB | NYG | WAS | 3.06 | 3000 | 28 |
| 67 | +2 | Brandon Bolden | RB | NE | HOU | 2.39 | 3000 | 6 |
| 68 | -2 | Fitzgerald Toussaint | RB | PIT | PHI | 2.37 | 3000 | 17 |
| 69 | +1 | Ka'Deem Carey | RB | CHI | DAL | 2.11 | 3100 | 12 |
| 70 | N/A | Dwayne Washington | RB | DET | GB | 1.11 | 3600 | 1 |
My top WR's:
| Rank | Change | Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Salary | OppDefRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | Antonio Brown | WR | PIT | PHI | 20.97 | 9600 | 17 |
| 2 | 0 | Julio Jones | WR | ATL | NO | 20.06 | 9500 | 20 |
| 3 | +1 | Brandon Marshall | WR | NYJ | KC | 18.06 | 7300 | 11 |
| 4 | +1 | Jordy Nelson | WR | GB | DET | 17.43 | 7400 | 5 |
| 5 | +2 | AJ Green | WR | CIN | DEN | 17.10 | 8100 | 2 |
| 6 | +5 | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | HOU | NE | 16.79 | 8600 | 4 |
| 7 | +12 | Larry Fitzgerald | WR | ARI | BUF | 16.48 | 6900 | 9 |
| 8 | +1 | Demaryius Thomas | WR | DEN | CIN | 16.39 | 6400 | 13 |
| 9 | +8 | Alshon Jeffery | WR | CHI | DAL | 16.30 | 8000 | 12 |
| 10 | -2 | Odell Beckham Jr | WR | NYG | WAS | 16.21 | 9100 | 28 |
| 11 | +12 | Eric Decker | WR | NYJ | KC | 15.72 | 6900 | 11 |
| 12 | -6 | Brandin Cooks | WR | NO | ATL | 15.69 | 7900 | 18 |
| 13 | 0 | Mike Evans | WR | TB | LA | 15.57 | 7000 | 23 |
| 14 | -11 | Jordan Matthews | WR | PHI | PIT | 15.52 | 7100 | 31 |
| 15 | +1 | Jeremy Maclin | WR | KC | NYJ | 15.45 | 6000 | 30 |
| 16 | +13 | Julian Edelman | WR | NE | HOU | 14.51 | 6400 | 6 |
| 17 | +13 | Jarvis Landry | WR | MIA | CLE | 14.46 | 6600 | 32 |
| 18 | -6 | Emmanuel Sanders | WR | DEN | CIN | 14.22 | 6000 | 13 |
| 19 | +3 | Dez Bryant | WR | DAL | CHI | 14.12 | 8400 | 14 |
| 20 | +7 | Allen Robinson | WR | JAX | BAL | 13.95 | 7500 | 3 |
| 21 | +28 | Allen Hurns | WR | JAX | BAL | 13.46 | 5200 | 3 |
| 22 | -12 | Doug Baldwin | WR | SEA | SF | 13.44 | 6300 | 22 |
| 23 | +23 | Kelvin Benjamin | WR | CAR | MIN | 13.38 | 7200 | 7 |
| 24 | -9 | Sammy Watkins | WR | BUF | ARI | 13.30 | 6100 | 10 |
| 25 | +6 | Stefon Diggs | WR | MIN | CAR | 13.29 | 5100 | 15 |
| 26 | N/A | Will Fuller | WR | HOU | NE | 13.15 | 4800 | 4 |
| 27 | -7 | Randall Cobb | WR | GB | DET | 13.07 | 7300 | 5 |
| 28 | +11 | Anquan Boldin | WR | DET | GB | 12.79 | 4200 | 1 |
| 29 | +3 | Willie Snead | WR | NO | ATL | 12.76 | 6500 | 18 |
| 30 | -9 | Pierre Garcon | WR | WAS | NYG | 12.56 | 3900 | 24 |
| 31 | +2 | TY Hilton | WR | IND | SD | 12.38 | 6800 | 25 |
| 32 | -6 | Terrelle Pryor | WR | CLE | MIA | 12.26 | 3400 | 29 |
| 33 | -8 | Michael Crabtree | WR | OAK | TEN | 12.20 | 6000 | 21 |
| 34 | -16 | Amari Cooper | WR | OAK | TEN | 12.18 | 7700 | 21 |
| 35 | -21 | DeSean Jackson | WR | WAS | NYG | 12.06 | 5900 | 24 |
| 36 | +14 | Michael Floyd | WR | ARI | BUF | 12.05 | 5800 | 9 |
| 37 | +31 | Devante Parker | WR | MIA | CLE | 11.99 | 4900 | 32 |
| 38 | -14 | Steve Smith | WR | BAL | JAX | 11.92 | 4100 | 26 |
| 39 | +3 | Mike Wallace | WR | BAL | JAX | 11.79 | 5000 | 26 |
| 40 | -5 | Golden Tate | WR | DET | GB | 11.65 | 5900 | 1 |
| 41 | +19 | Marvin Jones | WR | DET | GB | 11.64 | 6200 | 1 |
| 42 | +6 | Torrey Smith | WR | SF | SEA | 11.63 | 4300 | 8 |
| 43 | +20 | Travis Benjamin | WR | SD | IND | 11.44 | 5200 | 27 |
| 44 | +17 | Andre Johnson | WR | TEN | OAK | 11.27 | 3400 | 19 |
| 45 | 0 | Vincent Jackson | WR | TB | LA | 11.06 | 3900 | 23 |
| 46 | +7 | Brandon LaFell | WR | CIN | DEN | 11.00 | 3400 | 2 |
| 47 | +20 | Eddie Royal | WR | CHI | DAL | 10.80 | 3500 | 12 |
| 48 | +7 | Victor Cruz | WR | NYG | WAS | 10.77 | 4700 | 28 |
| 49 | N/A | Sterling Shepard | WR | NYG | WAS | 9.85 | 5500 | 28 |
| 50 | -6 | Kamar Aiken | WR | BAL | JAX | 9.65 | 3100 | 26 |
| 51 | -13 | Jamison Crowder | WR | WAS | NYG | 9.29 | 3800 | 24 |
| 52 | +6 | Cecil Shorts | WR | TB | LA | 8.91 | 3000 | 23 |
| 53 | +1 | Mohamed Sanu | WR | ATL | NO | 8.89 | 5700 | 20 |
| 54 | N/A | Corey Coleman | WR | CLE | MIA | 8.72 | 5300 | 29 |
| 55 | +23 | Kenny Stills | WR | MIA | CLE | 8.57 | 3600 | 32 |
| 56 | N/A | Tajae Sharpe | WR | TEN | OAK | 8.55 | 4700 | 19 |
| 57 | N/A | Tyrell Williams | WR | SD | IND | 8.44 | 4300 | 27 |
| 58 | +1 | Nelson Agholor | WR | PHI | PIT | 8.29 | 3500 | 31 |
| 59 | -22 | Kenny Britt | WR | LA | TB | 8.24 | 3900 | 16 |
| 60 | N/A | Eli Rogers | WR | PIT | PHI | 8.20 | 3900 | 17 |
| 61 | +8 | Dontrelle Inman | WR | SD | IND | 8.01 | 3600 | 27 |
| 62 | 0 | Dorial Green-Beckham | WR | PHI | PIT | 7.96 | 3200 | 31 |
| 63 | -29 | Jermaine Kearse | WR | SEA | SF | 7.92 | 3400 | 22 |
| 64 | -36 | Tavon Austin | WR | LA | TB | 7.83 | 4100 | 16 |
| 65 | -29 | Terrance Williams | WR | DAL | CHI | 7.78 | 3300 | 14 |
| 66 | +15 | Harry Douglas | WR | TEN | OAK | 7.71 | 3000 | 19 |
| 67 | -20 | Tyler Lockett | WR | SEA | SF | 7.71 | 4200 | 22 |
| 68 | -28 | Cole Beasley | WR | DAL | CHI | 7.42 | 3200 | 14 |
| 69 | -17 | Andrew Hawkins | WR | CLE | MIA | 7.14 | 3000 | 29 |
| 70 | -19 | Seth Roberts | WR | OAK | TEN | 7.09 | 3500 | 21 |
| 71 | -14 | Donte Moncrief | WR | IND | SD | 6.99 | 6700 | 25 |
| 72 | +18 | Rishard Matthews | WR | TEN | OAK | 6.75 | 3300 | 19 |
| 73 | -17 | Robert Woods | WR | BUF | ARI | 6.70 | 3200 | 10 |
| 74 | N/A | Michael Thomas | WR | NO | ATL | 6.60 | 4200 | 18 |
| 75 | -4 | John Brown | WR | ARI | BUF | 6.05 | 4800 | 9 |
| 76 | +9 | Phillip Dorsett | WR | IND | SD | 5.94 | 4400 | 25 |
| 77 | +10 | Albert Wilson | WR | KC | NYJ | 5.89 | 3000 | 30 |
| 78 | -12 | Brandon Coleman | WR | NO | ATL | 5.89 | 3000 | 18 |
| 79 | +16 | Danny Amendola | WR | NE | HOU | 5.84 | 3700 | 6 |
| 80 | +16 | Chris Conley | WR | KC | NYJ | 5.80 | 3100 | 30 |
| 81 | -38 | Davante Adams | WR | GB | DET | 5.77 | 4100 | 5 |
| 82 | +19 | Dwayne Harris | WR | NYG | WAS | 5.68 | 3000 | 28 |
| 83 | -1 | Devin Funchess | WR | CAR | MIN | 5.60 | 4100 | 7 |
| 84 | +5 | Andre Holmes | WR | OAK | TEN | 5.50 | 3000 | 21 |
| 85 | -15 | Paul Richardson | WR | SEA | SF | 5.34 | 3000 | 22 |
| 86 | -21 | Ted Ginn | WR | CAR | MIN | 5.32 | 3700 | 7 |
| 87 | +4 | Marqise Lee | WR | JAX | BAL | 5.22 | 3000 | 3 |
| 88 | N/A | Ryan Grant | WR | WAS | NYG | 5.21 | 3000 | 24 |
| 89 | +9 | Josh Huff | WR | PHI | PIT | 5.09 | 3000 | 31 |
| 90 | N/A | Kevin White | WR | CHI | DAL | 4.92 | 4000 | 12 |
| 91 | +9 | Chris Hogan | WR | NE | HOU | 4.90 | 3900 | 6 |
| 92 | N/A | Sammie Coates | WR | PIT | PHI | 4.83 | 3800 | 17 |
| 93 | -1 | Justin Hardy | WR | ATL | NO | 4.66 | 3000 | 20 |
| 94 | -17 | Adam Thielen | WR | MIN | CAR | 4.62 | 3200 | 15 |
| 95 | -19 | Jeremy Kerley | WR | SF | SEA | 4.41 | 3400 | 8 |
| 96 | N/A | Breshad Perriman | WR | BAL | JAX | 4.27 | 3000 | 26 |
| 97 | N/A | Josh Doctson | WR | WAS | NYG | 3.83 | 3000 | 24 |
| 98 | -14 | Quinton Patton | WR | SF | SEA | 3.79 | 3100 | 8 |
| 99 | -16 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | WR | PIT | PHI | 3.72 | 3200 | 17 |
| 100 | -7 | Corey Brown | WR | CAR | MIN | 3.65 | 3000 | 7 |
| 101 | -37 | Jaelen Strong | WR | HOU | NE | 3.65 | 3300 | 4 |
| 102 | -28 | Brice Butler | WR | DAL | CHI | 3.42 | 3000 | 14 |
| 103 | -30 | Brian Quick | WR | LA | TB | 3.39 | 3000 | 16 |
| 104 | 0 | Jordan Norwood | WR | DEN | CIN | 3.27 | 3000 | 13 |
| 105 | N/A | Tyler Boyd | WR | CIN | DEN | 3.17 | 3500 | 2 |
| 106 | -26 | Charles Johnson | WR | MIN | CAR | 3.16 | 3000 | 15 |
| 107 | -5 | Rashad Greene | WR | JAX | BAL | 2.08 | 3000 | 3 |
| 108 | N/A | Braxton Miller | WR | HOU | NE | 1.78 | 3000 | 4 |
My top TE's:
| Rank | Change | Player | Pos | Team | Opp | MyModel | Salary | OppDefRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5 | Greg Olsen | TE | CAR | MIN | 13.42 | 5800 | 7 |
| 2 | -1 | Jordan Reed | TE | WAS | NYG | 13.39 | 6500 | 24 |
| 3 | +5 | Delanie Walker | TE | TEN | OAK | 12.88 | 5000 | 19 |
| 4 | 0 | Jimmy Graham | TE | SEA | SF | 11.79 | 3000 | 22 |
| 5 | -2 | Jason Witten | TE | DAL | CHI | 11.63 | 4300 | 14 |
| 6 | +20 | Martellus Bennett | TE | NE | HOU | 11.46 | 4700 | 6 |
| 7 | +4 | Julius Thomas | TE | JAX | BAL | 11.39 | 4600 | 3 |
| 8 | +1 | Antonio Gates | TE | SD | IND | 10.89 | 4600 | 27 |
| 9 | +1 | Travis Kelce | TE | KC | NYJ | 9.99 | 4700 | 30 |
| 10 | +13 | Jordan Cameron | TE | MIA | CLE | 9.52 | 2900 | 32 |
| 11 | -6 | Gary Barnidge | TE | CLE | MIA | 8.43 | 4000 | 29 |
| 12 | +4 | Dennis Pitta | TE | BAL | JAX | 7.98 | 3400 | 26 |
| 13 | 0 | Coby Fleener | TE | NO | ATL | 7.95 | 3300 | 18 |
| 14 | -7 | Kyle Rudolph | TE | MIN | CAR | 7.94 | 3100 | 15 |
| 15 | -3 | Charles Clay | TE | BUF | ARI | 7.19 | 2900 | 10 |
| 16 | +14 | Jacob Tamme | TE | ATL | NO | 7.07 | 3200 | 20 |
| 17 | +21 | Larry Donnell | TE | NYG | WAS | 6.57 | 2700 | 28 |
| 18 | 0 | Vernon Davis | TE | WAS | NYG | 6.55 | 2700 | 24 |
| 19 | +10 | Dwayne Allen | TE | IND | SD | 6.26 | 3800 | 25 |
| 20 | +11 | Will Tye | TE | NYG | WAS | 6.21 | 2600 | 28 |
| 21 | +3 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | TE | TB | LA | 6.12 | 2900 | 23 |
| 22 | N/A | Maxx Williams | TE | BAL | JAX | 6.09 | 2500 | 26 |
| 23 | +5 | Brent Celek | TE | PHI | PIT | 5.83 | 2800 | 31 |
| 24 | -5 | Eric Ebron | TE | DET | GB | 5.73 | 3700 | 1 |
| 25 | -3 | Clive Walford | TE | OAK | TEN | 5.72 | 2800 | 21 |
| 26 | -11 | Lance Kendricks | TE | LA | TB | 5.10 | 2700 | 16 |
| 27 | 0 | Zach Miller | TE | CHI | DAL | 5.08 | 2900 | 12 |
| 28 | +6 | Jesse James | TE | PIT | PHI | 4.85 | 3500 | 17 |
| 29 | -4 | Crockett Gillmore | TE | BAL | JAX | 4.85 | 2500 | 26 |
| 30 | +11 | Jack Doyle | TE | IND | SD | 4.80 | 2500 | 25 |
| 31 | N/A | Brandon Myers | TE | TB | LA | 4.79 | 2500 | 23 |
| 32 | -18 | Jared Cook | TE | GB | DET | 4.61 | 2900 | 5 |
| 33 | +11 | Anthony Fasano | TE | TEN | OAK | 4.46 | 2500 | 19 |
| 34 | N/A | Demetrius Harris | TE | KC | NYJ | 4.37 | 2500 | 30 |
| 35 | +2 | Jermaine Gresham | TE | ARI | BUF | 4.31 | 2500 | 9 |
| 36 | +14 | Dion Sims | TE | MIA | CLE | 4.30 | 2500 | 32 |
| 37 | +5 | Cameron Brate | TE | TB | LA | 4.04 | 2500 | 23 |
| 38 | -6 | Vance McDonald | TE | SF | SEA | 3.98 | 2900 | 8 |
| 39 | -22 | Richard Rodgers | TE | GB | DET | 3.72 | 2700 | 5 |
| 40 | 0 | Darren Fells | TE | ARI | BUF | 3.67 | 2500 | 9 |
| 41 | -20 | Luke Willson | TE | SEA | SF | 3.67 | 2500 | 22 |
| 42 | N/A | Austin Hooper | TE | ATL | NO | 3.27 | 2500 | 20 |
| 43 | +3 | Marcedes Lewis | TE | JAX | BAL | 2.63 | 2500 | 3 |
| 44 | -8 | Garrett Celek | TE | SF | SEA | 2.25 | 2500 | 8 |
| 45 | -2 | Tyler Kroft | TE | CIN | DEN | 2.23 | 2500 | 2 |
| 46 | N/A | Rhett Ellison | TE | MIN | CAR | 1.87 | 2500 | 15 |
| 47 | N/A | Gavin Escobar | TE | DAL | CHI | 1.85 | 2500 | 14 |
| 48 | +3 | Virgil Green | TE | DEN | CIN | 1.76 | 3000 | 13 |
| 49 | -10 | Ryan Griffin | TE | HOU | NE | 1.44 | 2500 | 4 |
| 50 | N/A | Geoff Swaim | TE | DAL | CHI | 1.38 | 2500 | 14 |
| 51 | -3 | Ed Dickson | TE | CAR | MIN | 1.28 | 2500 | 7 |
| 52 | N/A | Logan Paulsen | TE | WAS | DAL | 1.20 | 2500 | 12 |
| 53 | N/A | CJ Uzomah | TE | CIN | DEN | 1.18 | 2500 | 2 |
| 54 | -1 | Kellen Davis | TE | NYJ | KC | 0.00 | 2500 | 11 |
My top DST's:
Note here, statistically significant defenses are in the 75th percentile or higher. On the other end of the spectrum, the worst defenses are in the 25th percentile or lower. Defenses in the middle are a total crapshoot.
| Rank | Change | Team | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4 | GB | 0.970 |
| 2 | +6 | DEN | 0.917 |
| 3 | +10 | BAL | 0.865 |
| 4 | 0 | NE | 0.858 |
| 5 | +10 | DET | 0.845 |
| 6 | +1 | HOU | 0.841 |
| 7 | -5 | MIN | 0.828 |
| 8 | +2 | SEA | 0.803 |
| 9 | +14 | BUF | 0.777 |
| 10 | -9 | ARI | 0.774 |
| 11 | +1 | KC | 0.772 |
| 12 | -6 | DAL | 0.729 |
| 13 | +1 | CIN | 0.691 |
| 14 | +8 | CHI | 0.614 |
| 15 | -12 | CAR | 0.587 |
| 16 | +3 | TB | 0.547 |
| 17 | +9 | PHI | 0.397 |
| 18 | -2 | ATL | 0.390 |
| 19 | +2 | OAK | 0.370 |
| 20 | +12 | NO | 0.297 |
| 21 | +4 | TEN | 0.292 |
| 22 | +9 | SF | 0.260 |
| 23 | -3 | LA | 0.251 |
| 24 | +4 | NYG | 0.226 |
| 25 | -14 | SD | 0.223 |
| 26 | +1 | JAX | 0.156 |
| 27 | -18 | IND | 0.145 |
| 28 | -11 | WAS | 0.120 |
| 29 | 0 | MIA | 0.109 |
| 30 | -12 | NYJ | 0.085 |
| 31 | -1 | PIT | 0.030 |
| 32 | -8 | CLE | 0.014 |
Image Sources
-QB rankings look decent this week.
-RB I think DJ is way too low. He didn't play much last game cause of a big lead, but he's the best back in the league (alongside le'veon)
-terrelle pryor's stats are probably from when he was a QB, gotta take that into account. Doesn't mean he's a bad play, but there are some 4700-6600 WR plays that are really good
I would audible out a few picks. Lots of RB value due to injuries, don't play Chris Johnson, careful with DT and Jimmy who are both dealing with some nagging injuries, and Dolphins D is a mortal lock of all time (maybe not in GPPs if you are playing Browns players for reverse correlation issues).
GL!
Thanks! I totally agree with the assumption on Prior, but what also pushed him over the top was targets/potential future targets in the WR void there. Hate the QB situation but thought it was an intriguing play. Very curious to see the game this weekend.
I agree with your WR analysis and have plans for subs in other lineups ;)
I have been playing the excel solver lineup each week "blindly" in at least 10% of my overall lineups, which I like for the time being. The solver is great, in that it will give an optimal salary solution with many constraints. The problem happens when certain salaries are overinflated or lacking based on various conditions. I can't optimize my lineup without more accurate projections, after all. I look forward to making some key adjustments and hopefully having a great Week 3!
Best of luck to you this weekend too! Hope you slay it again!
What a call on Pryor! he was in the milly maker lineup! all my lineups were successful in the most, the guys I mentioned all had good production
DJ - great, Landry -good, Sterling -good, Hilton - great, Julius Thomas - bust, Bengals - bust. Still have Ingram going today in the MNF.
Thanks! It was my first huh of the year with the algorithm, and it worked well! Jimmy Graham helped as well, and hitting on a few others too. Profitable week for sure!
Congrats on all your hits! I'm a Colts fan and I was real gun shy on TY this week because of Verrett, but it sure was nice to see the big TY day as a fan!
Best of luck here Monday Night!
excellent men very good information
great insight , thanks team-leibniz. I used your optimizer with my projections and while thats great I will definitely have a few lineups that I just gut feel based on matchups. The first matchup at QB that I like is Andrew Luck. The team is 0-2 and is desperate for a win, I expect them to get the lead quick and because nobody on that team can defend I expect Luck to be in the game and throwing often. I will pair him with Hilton and Dwayne Allen in some lineups.
In the RB game I agree with @draut44, DJ is a beast and he will be in heavy usage PPR Vs Buffalo. Buffalo got torched by the Jets, and Forte made them look silly. Buffalo is better at defending the run on paper but with enough weapons in Arizona that game may be out of hand quick and DJ will get tons of touches. My next play is Mark Ingram. Dude has not sniffed the end zone yet, but I like his chances vs the dirty birds who are not good at defending the run. Its a dome game at home, edge to the S-Aints (put him in flex because its a monday game, there is chance to swap in case you want).
At WR I like Jarvis Landry vs CLE, the dude is a target monster he should eat.
Im going with Sterling Sherpard vs the Redskins because he is great in the slot and saw tons of looks from Eli. Last I can stack with TY Hilton vs San Diego, I dont think Jason Verrett will shadow him exclusively and Luck will throw to him 10 times at the very least.
TE i like Juliuus Thomas for the Bortles Garbage time music.
At Defense im going with the Bengals.
i will play this in gpp and cash, lets see what happens. I know this lineup is not making the salary cap, but these are the players i like and ill try to make a team around them.
Aweome! Would love to see Fanduel too one day as I'm much more familiar with their salaries and thus could better gauge the results. Keep up the good work and gl this weekend!