STEEM prices have shown some resilience in the face of some volatile Bitcoin trading over the past week.
Despite several tests of support at 75K satoshis, the STEEM-BTC price held up and has recently moved upward to hit a wall at 90K satoshis once more. This is the second time in the past week that 90K has stopped an upward push.
The takeaway on the longer-term chart is that the STEEM-BTC price is still in a strong uptrend from the March 2017 lows. That uptrend line (black, chart below) is pointing at 29-30K satoshis. The most recent uptrend line beginning in early May (blue) points at a current target of ~55K satoshis. Over the past two weeks, the STEEM-BTC price has not fallen below 75K (red line), so it has been showing some great strength, despite decreasing volume and momentum that has slightly turned over on the daily chart.
With the price trading mostly sideways over the past week, the 20-day moving average has had time to catch up, but prices are still trading well above the 50-day average. Lows have been trending slightly higher (blue line) and there was a relatively sharp short-term downtrend from recent highs right near 100K satoshis, but today's price action has firmly broken that trend. We may be seeing a pennant-like pattern forming, but may need more time for it to play out.
The STEEM-BTC price has a lot of wiggle-room between current prices and the uptrend line, but it doesn't appear to want to move below 75K in the near-term. With the convincing break of the downtrend line on a spike in volume, we could see prices test 90K again very soon and may not see another test of 75K satoshis in the near-term. We may see a new floor around 79-80K for now. Increasing volume and another push to 90K could help confirm this.
The STEEM-U.S. Dollar price is showing some slightly different results in terms of its recent support/uptrend due to Bitcoin prices. However, the long-term uptrend (black) and near-term uptrend (blue) are unchanged and remain strong. The price has also broken through the most recent downtrend line and has been trading back above $2.00 for the last few days after dipping below in the latter half of last week.
As long as Bitcoin prices don't take another dive, we should see $2.00 serve as fairly strong support for prices overall, which are still in a very bullish trend on long-term charts.
Where can prices go from here?
The STEEM-BTC price has been trading in a fairly narrow range but we may be seeing it currently push that range to the upside. Previously, 75K has been a strong support line, but that may be pushed up to 79-80K for now on any retreats below ~85K.
We can still see 90K as current resistance. If the price were to break through 90K, we could see a green light for another test at 100K satoshis, although there may be some work to do around 94-95K before moving to that larger test.
Continue watching that volume for confirmation of the moves. Recent trends have shown STEEM prices moving up on increased volume, so I would expect that to continue as long as prices remain in their bullish patterns.
Mid- to long-term buyers may want to start averaging in below 85K and possibly increase buying below 79-80K, depending on their risk appetite and goals.
Experienced, short-term traders may be able to trade the range between 85K and 90K with some success. A few quick 5-6% gains may be possible for now. (Not recommended for non-traders!)
If you're trading, always remember:
Never invest or trade what you cannot afford to lose and put tight stop-losses in when prices creep lower towards the support lines.
As always, if you have any critiques or comments about my non-professional analysis, please let me know. If you decide to trade this market, good luck to you!
Disclaimer: I am not a professional adviser and this info should not be used for trading. These are only my interpretations and opinions, and while I would be flattered that you think so highly of my fairly basic analysis, it would not be prudent to use this for transacting/trading with real money.
*Charts are from Poloniex and Coinmarketcap.com. Analysis is current as of approximately 12:45pm EST, June 19, 2017.
Looks like it held the support line like you talked about last week.
There is certainly a lot of wiggle room for the price to go either way - traders may be waiting on the BIP 148 decision on July 1st.
Enjoyed the analysis, keep it up!
@lydon.sipe I totally spaced on the July 1st decision. Thanks for the reminder. In the end, any big catalyst can take our price analysis to the woodshed, but @ats-david has been pretty spot on.
The fact we held the 75k last week when all the coins took a bit of a dip was even more encouraging. Continued consolidation in the current would be a welcomed sign for the longer-term price action.
I could not agree more @scaredycatguide. The influx of new users seems to be creating a steady stream of buying, and it eases the fears of buying up some more Steem on any catalyst news.
I'm with you @ats-david has been putting in the work, and his analysis shows it.
Yes, he's been doing a good job. Plus, I'm biased because his analysis posts and my analysis posts are usually pretty close in opinion :-)
Haha.
Well, there is that. Great minds think alike as they say.
Enjoyed the post ! Useful! Today is an amazing day!
This is ridiculous!!! I'm screaming like a little girl!
I even made $80 on 1 comment recently!
Congratulations! That is fantastic!
This is going up, up and up!!!!
I'm glad someone has been paying attention! Have you been making any trading moves?
Haha, I keep an eye on your thoughts.
I fall in the mid-long term trader like you talked about. Did not make any moves this past time because I wanted to see if the 70-75k support line would hold.
Did you make any?
No. I've been trading a couple of other coins. I might buy the break-outs though. Or if the price falls back to 75 or below.
I'm in the middle of trying out a new strategy overall for my crypto tokens and cashing out STEEM. I want to take out some profits and allocate some of it to other cryptos (like Peerplays or EOS) and also cash out and add to positions in my stock portfolio. We'll see how it goes.
Buying graphene tech looks like a great strategy - I know you know it's history, haha.
I'm in the middle of my EOS due diligence, and man am I becoming excited.
a clear, concise summary even for a non-trader like me and plenty of cautionary advice for those of my ilk. My son trades and I'm tempted, but I'll read your analyses and cautionary notes before taking the plunge. Thank you for such an insightful post and for your sensible approach.
The consolidation of price has been quite nice. Price could even make a run here for the highs, but I would honestly before a little more consolidation as the 20 day MA is just getting caught up.
I am learning with everyone of your post. I believe that we are going to see solid gains from here to the moon. It will be our job as the 1% to balance the insanity of having 5million and not 200,000 users when it comes to pass. This thing is going to explode to a very large profitable machine. I say power up, and watch it go to $10.00 in the next 6 months.
I also try to fit in "Never invest or trade what you cannot afford to lose (...)", but I'm still giving my first baby-steps on the cryptos.
Nice analysis.....Helps the non pros to understand the behaviour of the market to some extent..
#snake-oil #sorcery #burntehwitch
Thanks for the detailed analysis, if you look at the platform as a whole the future is a rosy one. The price will continue to be bullish in the short term in my opinion. What is your opinion on tommorow's fork and how this will affect price?
I'm not at all excited about the hard fork tomorrow. I think there have been and continue to be too many changes to the economics of the platform and that these changes come in packages that are too large.
I see no point in changing the vote target from 40 to 10, as it doesn't appear to address any problem or flaw in the system or curb any identified abuse. I think the unintended consequences from this change could be far more detrimental to the economics of the platform and the behavior of users than just leaving the vote target alone.
I also don't think that a completely linear algorithm for rewards was necessary, but I'm not as opposed to that change. I have advocated a more linear curve for some time now.
What effect will it have on prices? I can't really say. But if a lot of whales or dolphins don't find it beneficial to be as active as they have been, we could see them dumping a lot of their accumulated STEEM. I happen to think that a lot of larger accounts will simply return to voting with their full weight and crowd out a large portion of the user base, just as we had seen prior to "the experiment." So, the net effect of this "equality" hard fork (which is a BS term if I've ever seen one) will likely be less influence for minnows, not more, even with the 4x voting power scheme.
Reduction from 40 to 10 is very damaging for the little ones .... Too many changes on a platform that is already complex, not a good thing, I agree with you ... @ats-david But I want to be positive! We hope well...
I , of course, have no idea what a Satoshi is? nevertheless have upvoted you , as you obviously do know , having mentioned it 7 times in your Post. Graphs are impressive. ( though not quite as attractive as a Motorcycle or Guitar!) in the end we are all different. Very neatly done Post. Love your Photo.
A satoshi is 0.00000001 Bitcoin. So, if the price is 80K satoshis, that would be 0.0008 Bitcoin.
It's just easier to write 80K than to type out 0.0008 every time.
Thank You for the explanation , almost sorry I asked. Glad I write stories and you do the important stuff. Appreciate your time. followed you so I can learn more.
Great article. I was just making the same observations earlier regarding how the price floor is holding up. Steem still has a huge potential for growth with the new apps being developed.
I've been buying small amounts during the dips, then selling when it goes up and starting the cycle again - my hope is to ride those waves and keep increasing the amount of Steem.
I'm also transferring some of the profits into GOLOS - my hope is that may grow faster than Steem and may catch up which would allow me to do a direct change from GOLOS to Steem.
I get caught out sometimes but I have a contingency plan that I can use some of the ICO money (like Bancor when it releases) to pump into it too.
Still not confident but it is helpful when you do these breakdowns because it makes it easier to understand.
Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.
I like the how far detailed the analysis is presented, multiple charts with to show different time frames to put it in context. Great job, needless to say I can learn from it when I post future analysis. By the way, I agree with the overall strength shown in the chart; the recent uptick break of the upper downtrendline is a good indication things are starting to look positive. Cheers.
VERY NICE POST..... ^^^UPVOTE^^
How will the rising popularity and a new influx of users and some good content creators affect the price? It seems that 2$ is a safe for now. Question remains how will HF19 affect the community. People seem to be powering down.
I've been dying for some solid Steem analysis and I finally found it. And you didn't weekly reports here which rock. I've seen a few others predict a massive downtrend in STEEM and it didn't make sense to me unless Bitcoin is going to take another tumble. Everything seems like consolidation to me, with lower trading volumes and price slowly rising on the USD side of things
Fundamentally there is no reason STEEM shouldn't be priced higher considering it is powering a fully functioning social network. Hopefully the market sees the true potential of it soon. Thank you again and I look forward to keeping up with your posts. Upvoted and Followed.
great analysis. thanks! any idea how $sbd will fair in thw coming days?
We wish health, good and warmth,
So that in the heart always only joy blossoms,
To live do not grieve for a hundred years,
Let all that has not come true will come to pass!
Very good :)
awesome analysis , this helps me decide my investment in steemit, i hope in July I can get coins at a lower price.
What do you think it will go to 10$ ?
The price has seemed to stay pretty stagnant but let's see if this new hardfork has any effect.
nice and to the point.
re steem+upvot+follow @ats-david
very well defined supports and resistances ... txs.
wow in depth analysis.. are you a day trader?
I used to be (not as a professional - just within my own personal portfolio). Not so much now, but I'm getting back into it.
Thanks for the info
Thanks for another great post. Can you explain to which "volume" you referring to?
24-hour trading volume on the exchanges. Those are the gray bars underneath the candlesticks on the charts.
Cheers!
Well done
Thank you so much for sharing this article with our community .
Can you please tell me shoult I buy steem in my wallet or should I buy directly steem power in my wallet.
Which one is profitable ??
It depends on how you want to use it. Are you aware of the difference between STEEM and STEEM Power? They both hold the same value, but STEEM Power is what you use for voting influence on the platform.
Yes, I know the difference and I just want to earn some to increase my voting power for newbies like me.
I just want to help others
This platform is incredible for people like us.
OK. So, if you want to have the influence and increase voting power, then just go ahead and buy the STEEM Power. You'll save a step. But really, you can do it either way. I don't think there's any distinct advantage or benefit to buying one over the other.
You may want to wait and see what happens with tomorrow's hard fork though. Things will be changing, particularly influence.
True.
Thank you so much for your precious advice @ats-david
Thanks for the analysis ... it really helped as I am new to the whole crypto currency system.
thans for that
Thank you for sharing all of your research! Great content. actually valuable.
Best,
@altcoinusa
Great Analyst @ats-david, i just wait for good time for steem
Nice i think i will get some Steem. Thank you for the analysis . Have you checked out Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL)?
CoOL man!
I noticed it leveling out as volume dropped as well. Looks like really strong support at 75k, and I hope that continues to be the case as Bitcoin finds its support.
Well, it tested 75K again and BTC is rallying. Looks like a lot of volume is flowing into BTC and almost all of the alts are taking some hits at the moment. Another touch off of 75K without breaking back up towards 85-90 might not be good for STEEM. The 20-day moving average has caught up with the price and is right around 75K, so we'll see if it can hold there.
That was by far that best analysis I've send on this platform thus far! It's looking like this bull trend is going to continue which is great! Hopefully I can get some relatively cheap steem next pay day!
good job @ats-david
upvote you
upvote me to
The whole market is on a big up at the moment apart from Eth and BTC which are slowing climbing...do you think a a (smallish) correction is coming the next few days?
I think it's possible now that BTC is rallying and a lot of trading volume and money is flowing into it. The 20-day moving average for STEEM-BTC has moved into the 75K range, so it'll be a good test of support. Already bounced off of 75K once today.
hey ats-david.. loved ur post again check out mine https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@danlupi/bitcoin-bubble-or-are-we-in-the-next-evolution
What other crypto currencies do you suggest to follow at this time??
I don't know if I can suggest any, but I can tell you that I hold some Litecoin, Bitcoin, and some Peerplays that I bought at $5.00 during their latest ICO. Other than those and STEEM, I only do some trading with different cryptocurrencies.
Maybe I can get @wingz can help you with that - or check out his latest blogs. You can also find some good information from @razvanelulmarin.
Taas is a crypto hedge fund and looks like a good buy right now around 100s in BTC. That's the best I have, perhaps MAID.
Ok, Thanks a lot! I follow you
Really informative post. Loving the weekend increase! Won't be long until this spikes. I feel like the user increase will soon trigger a dramatic rise in the price
Hi @ats-david, nice post. I am a fairly new Steemian who recently signed up. It would be great if you could check out my profile page and click follow if you enjoy my content. Thanks!
Nice analysis. Thanks for the update. Following.
good analysis..!!
good information for people like us(new to steemit world)I mean...!!
got to learn more and more about these things.
thank u for sharing..:)
upvoted and followed...
m new to steemit, do check my account if possible..:)
Thanks for this very informative post. I am following you for more.
I am still new here and I am having an information overload :0
Please be so kind as to read my post about bitcoin and give me your input?
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@rbfromsa/to-bitcoin-or-not-to-bitcoin
Any advice would be most welcome...and perhaps an upvote :)
Thank you very much :)
A very good analysis and the eassiest 100% upvote plus resteem on steemit ;-)
Thank you Sir.
I'm not a chart technician but I do like peaking at this type of breakdown once in awhile.
Nice.... do you think its time to buy???
This is just my opinion...
Depending on your outlook and risk appetite, it wouldn't be a bad place to start averaging in, especially with the price currently below 80K satoshis and support at 75K. But I'm not an adviser and you need to weigh all of the factors and make that decision for yourself.