It is indeed the proper longer term analysis, altho you're assuming everything goes 100% perfectly. But surely it's worth having some money in Steem while it's growing.
In the shorter term, think Steem can easily go up 10x to about $80, simply bc we've already seen some other cryptos get that popular and achieve the market cap Steem would have at $80 per.
For Steem to reach beyond that, however, it's going to need to fix some things, and that always seems quite hard in crypto due to the nature of having to secure votes for everything, and votes always factor in self-interest which may not match the goal of achieving high market caps for the overall entity.
so we'd rather hear more about upcoming Steemit changes and how the witness votes are going.
But great target price, much more helpful than the chart-based stuff certain folks are posting.