Great discussion of fundamentals v technical analysis @aggroed. I would add that from a macroeconomic sense, perhaps the most important driver to any bubble is public perception and narrative.
I still suspect the cryptocurrency narrative is in its earlier stages, and waiting for the narrative to grow in noise and numbers is what will drive your crypto portfolio value in the months-years to come.
I am a big fan of Stanley Druckenmiller's philosophy of liquidity and investing based on massive capital flows chasing trends, rather than focusing on the more micro fundamental or TA metrics. I review fundamentals (namely debt, free cash flow, margins, etc.) and think loosely about TA when viewing a chart, but for me it's all about being long the narrative (or short, if that suits to situation).
Currently reading the book below, I recommend anyone serious about the space pick it up and read it. Provides a nice context to several previous manias and is written in a logical prose.
