HF21 is on the way, almost a year after HF20. I’m really glad now I am no longer a witness. I remember the stress HF20 cause me last year. No longer being a witness means this year I can look at things with a different hat on and so much less stress. I do hope the witnesses don't end up working day and night to quickly fix bugs and roll out a load of new released within the weeks that follow. I hope it goes smooth and the testing has been done!
The changes coming are rather big. First, the rewards pool will no longer be split 3 ways, but 4. Added to the mix will be a proposal fund and anyone can submit a proposal to access some of that fund. That means there is less available to content creators and curators.
Next, is the split between authors and curators. This will change from 75/50 to 50/50, on a reduced rewards pool.
Then we have a change in the payments to authors away from a linear curve.
Finally, we will also have some free downvotes.
I ran some math when this was all announced. I took a weeks’ worth of posts, reduced the pool by 10% and then recalculated the rewards based on the new curve and the new 50/50 split. As an author I wanted to see where I stand. Frist, I thought I must have done something very wrong in the workings. But now looking back, I’m not so sure I made that big of a mistake.
What I would say is that with the new downvotes, it’s too hard to know what will really happen. Taking a week worth of posts and revaluing them without factoring in some sort of downvotes that was not there before is not the right approach. But knowing how people are going to use these is way beyond the capabilities of my crystal ball.
However, when the HF is rolled out, from what I understand and please do correct me if I am wrong, posts for the previous 7 days will be revalued and paid out under the new system. That’s a week of no flags and I think my workings truly reflect that week. Hold on to your hats, its going to be an interesting time. People that have not done their research are in for a big surprise.
I still don’t want to share my workings and I am still hoping I am wrong. If the testing has been done, then I am for sure not the only one to have revalued the posts and tested the impact. But as I am not a witness I don't feel responsible and don't feel like I have to share. However it looks to me like if we don’t all change our voting and flagging behaviour, like big big time, the rich are about to get richer and the higher SP holders stand to gain. I think we will see a massive clear out of steem users. Users that were previously able to earn up to a dollar per post. The same users, holding low SP won’t see much benefit from increased curation rewards either because their votes is worth nothing anyway.
I was hoping some measures would reduce the downwards pressure on the selling of steem. 50% curation rewards mean more SP gets powered up and has to go thought the 13-week power down. However, my fear is that the proposal pool will exert downwards pressure and we won’t see the benefit of additional steem power being locked into the system.
Steemit inc funds by selling steem
Mostly likely the proposal pool will fund by selling steem
Misterdelegation (although being revised) funds by projects delegatees powering down and selling steem
Authors and curators are expected to power up for reduced rewards to fund?????
It will be the new year before the dust settles on this one!
I think on that note, I will end the post.
I also think the big SP holders will profit from this a lot. But I am not sure if this is going to be a bad thing in the long run.
If the big money guys get the hint that they are highly favored when investing big, I think we might be in for a surprise.
If we are able to get new money from big investors, let's say 40million steem powered up by them over the next 2 years... this would easily stop the downward pressure. Maybe then the time for mass adoption will come.
Don't forget that 10million USD will give you 15-20 million STEEM at this point in time if you buy it smart over several exchanges and months.
The next guy investing 10 million USD will probably not get half of what the first one got. And 10 million is not a terribly big amount for some of the hedge fund guys and big investors...
Time will tell.
This sounds.... well, not good. It sounds not at all good.
How much have you looked into it @allseeingewe, my advice is to do some research because there are a lot of changes
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I have looked roughly 0% into it, give or take. Maybe I should try to do a little better than that, yeah.
😂
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I have looked into it a LOT. And it has been giving me anxiety. I have a mostly finished analysis post that I just don't want to finish and post, as if maybe that will make it not true. I think unfortunately the answer is, there is no possible way the flag pool can even come close to making up the gap. Your quick analysis is correct - the rich / big SP holders / bid bot users will grow richer. The non whale / non bid bot users will lose out, big time. There just simply isn't enough SP held by users who might downvote bid-bot posts and downvote whale self-upvoted posts to make up the difference even if a really high % of the free flags are used for that purpose. And I think it is a vanishingly slim possibility that a high % of the free flags will be used for that purpose. Most people don't like to flag, because flagging leads to retaliation and flag wars. For the stated purpose of the HF being to encourage manual curation and discourage self voting and vote buying, I honestly think these changes are actually perverse incentives that actually will encourage even more users to buy votes to push their posts up the curve, and will concentrate even more SP in the largest bid bots and whales.
Hi @carlgnash, looks like you and I are in the same boat. Testing the code is one thing but running the number to test the impact is another. I'm not sure witnesses and whales have done this. Lol it's all about the code. As u have read, I didn't publish either and with the hope I am wrong. I even deleted my data and workings with annoyance. I know u are pissed off and I feel you pain.
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...will these free flags make it easier for that maniac Sir Butthurt to flag anyone who displeases him?
He is single handedly ruining this whole system. My flags started because I dared to question him.
#butthurtwars
Cg
YOU ARE ON THE NAUGHTY LIST. YOU HAVE BEEN FLAGGED. GOODBYE.
EXACTLY right.
I also wish you were wrong, but sadly you are quite in agreement with the math, and my own assessment.
The downvote pool is based on SP, and adds 25% of extant SP worth of flags to the power of the account. Almost all SP is presently in the hands of whales, and by using the exponential increase in value of their SP, they capture almost all rewards, ~90% of rewards now go to whales, and this is while rewards are linear. The demonetization of posts by downvoting returns the Steem upvotes have assigned to the post to the rewards pool, where whales can again have a chance to extract it via their stake weight.
EIP is essentially demonetization of non-whales. It will be catastrophic for social media.
Thanks!
BINGO! Anyone who has looked at the math can see it's disaster. But they keep saying "no don't look at the math! let's look at the hope of humanity to change and make this place better!"
but you're taking away author rewards from everyone (but targets small accounts more than any other account) and giving a MASSIVE increase to the ALREADY large accounts.
no no... you're looking at it the wrong way. Look at it this way... math, bad. hope, good.
ummmmmm. wut.
Sounds like you didn't drink the "Koolie-steem-aid" neither!
Lol..well I have to say I was under the influence for a while.
But the buzz wore off 😜
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i screamed loudly when the HF20 was proposed about how it would affect little accounts. AND ultimately, Steemit.
HF21 is going to be another hard hit
At some point, investors will avoid Steem because too many users lost, and not enough new members. At some point the reputation of Steem will scare investors away
Great points of comprehensive analysis. I see the very same rationale playing out in the minds of investors, especially new investors with new money. Why waste the money on STEEM when they have Publish0x, Honest.Cash, etc. growing in leaps and bounds with Steemians defecting from a broken HF21?
The tribes are the only real bright spot, but the jury is still out... Long-term will tell the story!
You don't think that point is in the rearview mirror? How's the coinmarketcap ranking again?
oh, it is FAR in the rear view mirror.
I believe there is a huge problem attracting investors to the platform.
I dont have a good answer for how to... not yet, anyway.
My thought exactly... All the factors being considered will have them look elsewhere to invest. The tribes are the only thing to really look at, but it's still early... Steem-engine and the tribes are the future of the STEEM blockchain!
During HF20, I could see the promise of free account creation for what it was, an empty promise. I got my second standby account for the 3 steem prior to HF20, and that 3 steem went to the account. I urged all my friends that if they thought they might want/need a second account in the future they should get their account prior to the HF.
On this HF, (HF21), I do not see what I can do or should do to prepare for it. With the advent of all the new tribes I really wish I would have purchased/made even more accounts before HF20.
So any one with ideas on what I should do to prepare for or change habit wise before HF21 they would certainly be appreciated.
Sadly - here is the only thing you can change.
See how this hard fork doesn't actually motivate large accounts to curate quality content??? They actually get MORE for curating something that no one else curates. (which would be POOR content.)
@shadowspub
@paulag
I can see some of that taking place, it is that way already in some cases. Some more people may choose to also take up that attitude. The ones here only for the money, do not really care as long as they make a higher ROI. They will keep steem block chain on the fringes of alt coins with that attitude in my opinion.
There is some change and progress being made toward a more social environment, but those changes are not in the interest of the ROI seekers, so they will be stomped on. I see no way forward for steem block chain with the mentality of the current so called investors.
It's becoming less social.
Proof: do you remember how fun this place used to be? full of activity and commenting and posting and upvoting
When's the last time you had fun here?
This place is a ghost town. And adding in more flags and taking away rewards?
I wonder who could possibly benefit from this plan.
Oh. Nevermind.
Actually I do still have fun in the social aspect of it. Comment voting, yes that has taken a sever back burner position (due to vote value and dust vote level), but I see a lot of comments on post, on plain ordinary post, not just post about the state of steem.
I still see fun post being made, I see life post being made, and yes, the down votes are an issue.
I myself do not think anyone is going to benefit from the HF. I think in six months they will be thinking "what were we thinking". I am going to stay around to see the fall out of it all though.
SMT's and Down votes pool are not going to mix well at all. SMT's are designed to bring business in, down vote pool is designed to shut people down. SMT's could really have so much potential, but they will never work as long as their is abusive down voting going on, and free down votes will add to that abusive nature.
SMT potential that will not be seen while down votes run rampant and free:
So no new SMT user, a lost opportunity. No business wants to put their clientele in jeopardy. So it is going to be very interesting to see just how long this down vote pool idea will last.
Good for you!
(And I realize that thisnis text so you can't know my tone...but it is a genuine happiness for you!)
I'm glad that some people are still enjoying the social interaction here.
I do enjoy still leaving comments on posts (this post got me fired up about the irritation of HF21 ahaha but normally I only leave encouraging happy comments! Lol)
But I have seen the opposite.
A lot of people still desperately trying to cling to the fun that used to be here and the variety if people and posts... But really just deluding themselves, hoping that some of that fun returns in the long run
But ..if you're still seeing it- you've got a great community that has high hopes and has still stuck around!!!
For me, I'm just happy that ive made enough real friends here that made the crossover out of the online realm. So no matter what- I take them with me.
Happy to hear that your attitude is a positive one, irrespective of the noise around you ! 😊
There is always noise in life, and I have taken nothing you said as negative toward me or my attitude, text is a lousy medium at times.
!ENGAGE 50.
it can sometimes be hard to find the fun in all the noise, everyone's idea of fun is slightly different. Some think flagging and annoying others is fun, not me. But I do enjoy a lot of different content, and the tribes have helped make it a bit easier to find. Currently CreativeCoin is doing pretty good on the content type I like, the trending pages on many of the tribes are pretty clean of spam content/vote bot raised content.
Uncontrolled mayhem is never fun. I know there are several people that feel the tribes exert to much control, that is generally from people that like to flag. Even with the free flags on palnet, there is not a lot of abusive flagging going on, they seem to be being used as was designed, that is because palnet will take out the abusive flaggers. Steemit has no mechanism to do that.
The fun can be found again, it is still out there, at least for a little while longer. We will just have to wait and see what all gets thrown out with the bath water of HF21.
Here are your
ENGAGEtokens!To view or trade
ENGAGEgo to steem-engine.com.except for the actuality is, 1. invest and become a large stakeholder. 2. self upvote, because that is still going to be TWICE as profitable as curating under HF21
yes! how did i forget to say that???? exactly right! (but dont let them hear you complain about that. or else you're disloyal, selfish, entitled, and don't want to share with the community. LOLOLOLOL)
sit down in a comfortable chair
bend over
kiss butt
hold on tight
Dear @paulag
Thank you for sharing your view on that particular issue with us. HF21 is surely bringing even more emotions that HF20 did. At least that's my impression so far.
I'm wondering what do you think about this split? I've been monitoring PAL and LEO tokens (since both introduced 50/50 already) and selling pressure seem to be very high. Which really worries me.
This seem to be the most important change for those who like to upvote valuable comments. Correct me if I'm wrong but right now it will be way more "expensive" to give someone small 0.03$ upvote than it has been in the past, right?
I'm really worried that culture of upvoting comments will die down.
Just like you said: it will be an interesting time. It's hard not to agree with your words: "I think we will see a massive clear out of steem users.". I'm really worried about this HF21 and its future consequences.
Yours
Piotr
you can see from the comments, people are concerned and passionate about this.
Selling pressure is massive - hence the loss of value all of the time. There are a few ways to look at this. the new changes are more favorable to investors that power up. investors is good. however, it is at the risk of the existing small steem user, which is most of the current steem population.
Voting on comments concerns me a lot. My entire business model from my brand and steem rely on me voting for comments. When I started steem was worth more and my vote was worth more. Under the new system there is a good chance, my vote on comments wont be enough for a payout, not if i am the only one voting on them. I echo your concern on upvoting comments.
Thank you for your kind comment.
Indeed, people are passionate about HF21 @paulag
I expected that in a short and middle-term price of STEEM will drop even futher. Those who are unhappy with changes are probably selling whatever they can. At the same time those who have hopes and are powering up do not have enough funds to slow down selling pressure.
Plus it's going to take some time to get more investors and curators on board. Replacing those who we're losing now will take some time.
I would expect that STEEM will really hit the all time low very soon. Great time for those who are here for long.
Would you mind telling me more about your business model? I found it very interesting.
Yours
Piotr
I guess most users are going to see a drop in steem rewards of 30 to 60 % from the simulations I've done and that cannot account for downvotes. However because of tribes and tokens, this can be offset provided some of the bigger ones continue to thrive.
I agree things won't get good until after the new years and thats if SMTs are delivered on svhedule. These could increase confodemce in tribes even more.
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I have heard many people say tribes is the answer
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tribes had better be the answer and those tokens need to start acquiring some value which is going to be hard to do with a downward pressure on Steem. Your results are pretty much what @dreemsteem figured some time ago.
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Thanks for the heads up @paulag. I had my suspicions all along.
What can be accomplished in the long-term after HF21?
When you run the numbers to factor in human behavior and the disgruntled off-chain chatter in the social media platform blogging space, HF21 is a self-inflicted fatal error!
I suspect there is another agenda that doesn't serve all the users of the STEEM blockchain... I that's the case, too bad!
The prospects of lower Steem rewards that are harder than ever to earn is the worst combination in this space right now. I am glad I made the moves that I did when I did because I smelt a real funky fish fry about to take place. @exyle has made a number of posts about the HF21. Now, you have all but, confirmed my best guesstimates of what is going to happen.
Thanks for everything @paulag, continue to be the best at what you do ~ Steem On!
most have an idea of how this is going to play out, we also have to wait and see if the witnesses will accept or reject the changes :-)
Good point... Sounds like that's not going to left up to your wise sayings! We will see.
Where the hell steemit road map direct to😯 is this going to be another Lion's club?
It may very well be @cicisaja 🙄
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this is something i was talking from the first time they mentioned it. One thing that could maybe push it a bit to the better side is heavy downvoting of big stakes that are selfupvoting shitposts and bitbots.
now we can just wait and see.
Yep, wait and see what cards we are handed
Posted using Partiko Android
If at least they would start putting some efforts on the marketing side...
If at least they would
Start putting some efforts on
The marketing side...
- toofasteddie
I'm a bot. I detect haiku.
It's a change in favour of the big guys. That's for sure.
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That really depends on how the new flags are used
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Irresponsibly
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Unless they are also doing a personality transplant... :) We know how that goes.
I can't upvote due to low VP.. !tip instead...
I'm already looking forward to HF22..
Thanks for the tip 😉
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😲
One to keep an eye out for 😉
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Exactly! This is very important and I hope someone is going to clarify it!
Seems most likely what will happen, because by the time they reach payout, HF21 will be in effect, with the economic changes. Any predictions of pending payout prior to that will be wrong, because they assume HF20 rules will continue to work for the payout.
It makes sense.
"if we don’t all change our voting and flagging behaviour" -- will this help to reverse the rule "the rich are about to get richer"? :)
nope. they will still get richer. and really? who minds the rich getting richer??? really? not me!!!
the problem is the rich get richer as they are TOPPLING the balance and sliding the scale COMPLETELY in their favor - making it hard for the POOR to get richer too!
THAT'S the problem. if everyone wins - it's a good thing!!! but this system is SET UP to favor ONE class. the rich. (and the rest of Steem can work harder for less - and be thankful for the opportunity)
reminds me when Oliver Twist holds up his bowl for a second helping of gruel LOL "Please sir, May I have some more!"
sad sad sad
Well, I warned this will happen ever since I found out about EIP. But I got tired, and the changes will happen. Why do you think Steemit chose to make public an internal date for SMT MVP which is only a few weeks after HF21? They know HF21 will not be well received, once effects will be seen by everyone. They need to counter that with the good news of SMT coming almost immediately after these changes.
Same here. I posted about it all 4 weeks ago? You probably posted before me,but the whole thing was slippery and slimy...throwing the EIP in at the last second.
But like you said...we wasted our breath then...but people are still reading comments now.
Better for them to see it at some point and not be blindsided.
I'm powering down (for the first time since 2016) and if steem goes up, good. Then I can get my investment back.
That's all I can do at this point since they long since stopped caring about their userbase.
So we can worry about our money now...just like them, and benefit... Just like them .
I hope every thing will be gonna right. I love steemit and now it makes me feel something bad.
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Thanks @paulagI appreciate your candor. Now as a new account, this is devastating news HF21. Here is my opinion to the originators of the HF21:
Steemit will die. Good bye steemit, fail!!!
What a joke. Who runs this farce of a platform? You are killing yourself you parasite of a steemit board who introduces HF21. Kleptocratic crony capitalism just like the rest of the world in the criminal fiat system. You guys suck...the life out of your own platform. Only fools and horses and you Steemit board members.
Somebody got spooked by the number of words in this blog posting ~ 666 words! Is this an omen @paulag?
yeah - very mixed thoughts moving forward... it sure is going to be an interesting ride.
What changes in our voting and flagging behaviour do you think will be helpful?
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People will need to use their flags to redistribute the rewards from the large post payouts to the smaller posts
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Average users will magically be emboldened to risk retaliation and downvote the whales with the largest payouts?
LMAO
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I will see your LMAO and raise it an ROFL
ROFLCOPTER!
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hahahahahaa dang it. what's higher than ROFLCOPTER????
I TAKE THAT! LOL
I will add a !BEER
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well i can't drink beer - sorry. gluten LOL
you can have mine
To view or trade
BEERgo to steem-engine.com.Hey @dreemsteem, here is your
BEERtoken. Enjoy it!thank you! lol um.... I pretty much said the same thing in a comment here (which was really a post LOL)
does no one remember early 2018???? how are we here again???
no one is downvoting dolphins, orcas OR whales. cuz no one wants the retaliation. it creates an atmosphere of fear.
and the dolphins will partner up - or get their orca friends to help - whenever anyone larger downvotes them.
i just saw an exchange happen where someone downvoted a post for no reason at all. just because. and when the person asked - May I ask why I got a downvote?
they replied - no. go ask someone else.
and then their crony friends chimed in too.
to some people this is just a place to have fun trolling and making life miserable for people - and now they have more ammo.
its ridiculous that they're actually promoting this behavior and hoping for the best.... again.
Sounds about right
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Realy? This is behind, the free Downvotes?
🎁 Hi @paulag! You have received 0.1 STEEM tip from @davedickeyyall!
@davedickeyyall wrote lately about: Wake And Bake On #Themorningbowl Feel free to follow @davedickeyyall if you like it :)
Sending tips with @tipU - how to guide :)
My hands are wide open to receive any change. I am prepared for. But one thing is for sure - the rich will get richer.
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THIS. Convergent linear is going to hurt the redfish, minnows, and maybe even dolphins BIG TIME. A lot of them don't realize it yet though.
Look at it from their point of view. After this hard fork, the strong and powerful will accumulate more power to ensure future hard forks work for their benefit first.
Okay, now you can slap me.
It's been that way for a while.
No slaps needed 😉
HF20 paved the way for HF21
AND... Funny how they reached consensus faster than any other hard fork
Wait. Wait just a second!!!!
Do you mean that they voted for a hard fork where they themselves benefitted financially???
Noooooooo! What! Stop it! I .... I ... I refuse to believe it!
😒
Good bye steemit, the host killed by the parasitic board.
Yes, frowny face indeed.
Thank you so much for participating in the Partiko Delegation Plan Round 1! We really appreciate your support! As part of the delegation benefits, we just gave you a 3.00% upvote! Together, let’s change the world!
Things have become stagnant so I am all for change, any change to buck this place up. There is always Hf22 if things go pear shaped
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Congratulations @paulag!
Your post was mentioned in the Steem Hit Parade in the following category:
Hi @paulag!
Your post was upvoted by @steem-ua, new Steem dApp, using UserAuthority for algorithmic post curation!
Your UA account score is currently 6.816 which ranks you at #115 across all Steem accounts.
Your rank has improved 1 places in the last three days (old rank 116).
In our last Algorithmic Curation Round, consisting of 189 contributions, your post is ranked at #19.
Evaluation of your UA score:
Feel free to join our @steem-ua Discord server
The upside of 20 cent steem is both big and small will feel forced to stick it out and work together to raise the price through burns or something who knows.. ...i know even I'm not willing to part with my lil steem until something gives, if it's 10 cents it's not really any different than now. Both dime and quarter steem are basically worthless to everyone here and below 10 you're looking at imminent death.. So it's time to shit or get off the pot is all I'm saying.. Forks aren't going to do jack for our not even top 80 chain..
On the other hand, one could surmise that it's a great time to buy steem for as cheap as it is. The only hard part is finding an exchange to purchase it on. That's been the one reason why I haven't purchased any. The exchanges that allow people to purchase for fiat don't serve Americans or require $500 or more to make a purchase. I would drop $10-$50 at a time if I could!
Yea it worked well for the few that bought in at 7 cents, they’re still doing alright... I’m just really trying to brain what would cause steem price to rise and stay around at least a dollar ?
Posted using Partiko iOS
People buying it to power up, for starters. Certainly can't hurt...
Preventing rewards from being extracted by accounts with substantial stakes would allow content to be rewarded, creators to be encouraged to post, and new users to join, which all would put upwards pressure on the price of Steem.
Allowing the price to rise will attract investors seeking capital gains, which profiteering currently strongly discourages. EIP is exactly bass ackwards from doing that. Plan accordingly.
Do you know what amount of SP upvote it will take to tip the scale to get past that first part of the curve? The only example I've seen had it at 100,000 SP, which would knock most authors out of the running. I wonder how it will affect initiatives like SBI.
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Thanks for a great post @paulag, and I have also read some of the comments, and what strikes me is that this discussion is very focused on Steem specifically, of course HF21 is a Steem specific change, but also some comments are only seeing the tribes as an offset to compensate for lower earnings in Steem.
Allow me to elaborate but I don't think that is the whole picture, now tribes are of course very early in their development and it will take some time to see which ones will be a success, but give it a bit more time and the tribes will be where most new and small Steemians will have the majority of their earnings and rewards.
And in my opinion this development will be accelerated with HF21, since new and small Steemians are not getting much reward in Steem, they will only power up to the point where they don't have to worry about RC, and just leave it at that, Steem will then just be the token that takes care of running the blockchain and as the trading pair in Steem-engine.
This of course also means that having a big stake in Steem is less relevant, because that does not automatically mean that you also have a big stake in the tribes, and the small Steem stakeholders will mainly just care about stake in the tribes, which they are also more likely to earn really big in to the point that they can become way bigger in the tribes than the whales in Steem are, thereby the stake that those Steem whales have is not relevant to their earnings in the tribes, even with free downvotes since those downvotes might not have more than a marginal effect on their earnings from the tribes.
And as to myself, I am a minnow in Steem, and I have been playing around a bit with some tribes, but last week CTPtalk launched, and this is a tribe which I really beleive in and am very interested in, to the point I have bought quite a bit of their tokens by selling Steem, and I plan on continue that route, I am already a minnow there and in less than two weeks from now I plan on being a dolphin in that tribe.
My stake in Steem will of course also continue to grow from the rewards in Steempower, but I have no plans of powering up any Steem going forward, and I will not participate in any SPUD, I will invest most of my liquid earnings in the tribes, since that is where I see myself having a big chance to earn from the very start of them.
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