It'll take time to get to that valuation, perhaps not along time, but some time. I'd divide your number by 2 to account for the dilution baked into the ecosystem, e.g., if it takes a year there would be 100% dilution (I think) so this number works for 1 year out.
That's still $1800 per STEEM so party on Mr. Smith!
I knew someone would bring that up! You win! :D
Yes, the supply of STEEM doubles every year, which is going to put a damper on my Happy Place of $3k/STEEM.
Unless of course Steemit's adoption rate is exponentially greater than Facebook's due to social media now being a part of everyday life (Facebook had to break trail and kind of invent social media, harder and takes longer) and Steemit is appeals to a vastly broader swath of humanity due to it's ability to pay rewards to literally any human being with an internet connection and the ability to create some kind of content.
Wait...
it doubles every year, then reverse splits 10:1 every 3.3 years. so it stays within a pretty constant range.
the real problem with your analogy is that youre comparing apples and oranges. The term market capitalization as it applies to a company just isnt the same thing as the term as it applies to a crypto currency.
In a company, a share actually represents percentage ownership... and price of a share will correct if the valuation of a company's assetts is not inline with its market cap. I know not always, or dependably, but the point is that the relationship does exist. That means corporate market cap, as determined by share price, is at least a somewhat accurate depiction of valuation... 1 steem is not comparable to one share of FB, because the marketcap of steem as currency isnt really effected (at least not directly) by the valuation of steem inc's assets.
To put the argument another way -- if youre going to use corporate marketcap as a bell weather for crypto marketcap, steem is already disasterously overvalued... If there was a company and if that company had a stock, their 300M marketcap would be completely out of line with their assets.
Im not saying i don't see an increase in value... just that its not as simple as taking a corporate marketcap and assuming that steem currency will hit that marketcap.
Excellent points! And I agree on all of them. Perhaps the best we can say is the market has valued Facebook at ($) because it is the state-of-the-art/best in class social media platform and Steemit has now made the state-of-the-art obsolete, so Steemit will be valued at (>$). Apples to oranges, yes! But we can also talk about the value of fruit. And I like fruit.