Oh Wow has it been a fun few weeks.
Many people are just now getting into SteemMonsters and calling it to be the next big thing in digital gaming, while others are throwing in the towel a few weeks in and calling it quits. I can already tell that this thing is going to be one wild ride.
I have been following the discord and over the past couple of days it has gotten pretty heated within the trading room about what prices should be and whether or not it's too low or too high and free market and blah blah. I wanted to give my opinion on where I think we are at in the move and what I think the prices are going to fluctuate to and what I believe they should be.
I also want to show you something that really amazes the shit out of me and demonstrates how ALL MARKETS RHYME WITH ONE ANOTHER ESPECIALLY NEW MARKETS. You can directly compare and mimic this to any new ICO that hits the public markets. I will show you how below. I am not even going to tell you which stock this is or the time frame but I see this as being exactly where steemmonsters is right now.
You have the first flood of traders and buyers trying to make a buck. They all likely made money (although if they are holding now or buying their way out of it they are not making money which I have proven in the discord over and over. Prices are too low now) and have sold lots. The amount of cards and supply overtook the amount of players. Now we are in the area where WE WILL find an equilibrium of supply and demand.
Last night there were Legends going for under 10 STEEM and Golds still going under 1 SBD which is insane to me. The traders who were making money, can literally not be making money with NEW CARDS now.
So My opinion on this is we are somewhere in this bouncy price discovery area. Now ONE of TWO things are going to happen over the next 4-6 weeks.
Option 1: 15% chance
- These cards are worthless, the game folds, steemit does not embrace something that could elevate it to another level and steemmonsters drift off into the abyss and is a what could have been.
Option 2: 85% chance
- The demand comes in specifically for the epics, legends, and golds and withstands the traders and big boys who bought to much in the beginning and price stabilizes. Over the next couple of weeks as people start turning to packs because they can no longer get epics for 0.5 SBD anymore the price begins to rise because all the buyers right now are holding.
I believe that you are going to see Option 2 and in a major way. Usually the first push into highs is 100% not THE HIGH in any single market place. The current problem is people are fielding packs without buying packs because it is cheaper. That will stop.
Current Prices I have seen are as follows:
Commons - 0.04 Steem
Rares - 0.2 Steem
Epics - 0.45 Steem
Legends - 8-10 STEEM
Golds Commons and Rares - 1-3 STEEM
Gold Epics - ????
Gold Legends - ????
The above prices that are 100% out of whack, are the Epics. You CANNOT get Epics and Legends anymore much less golds. Look at the drop rates below:
I have been following the blockchain, there are people buying 10-20 packs of cards and getting.....3 EPICs. The prices here are laughable if STEEMMONSTERS isn't going to ZERO. the gold cards in my eyes have so much value because there ARE NOT MANY of them and you could be able to enter into some BIG MONEY games with only gold cards?
These developers are smart, they are not dumb. If they are dumb, it goes to zero, if they aren't this thing catapults again.
So Here is what I think you will see when they stabilize before the next rise (I do not know how long this will take)
Value I see:
Commons - 0.1 Steem
Rares - 0.5 Steem
Epics - 1-2 Steem
Legends - 20 STEEM
Golds Commons and Rares - 2-8 STEEM
Gold Epics - 15-20 STEEM
Gold Legends - ??? (I have no idea considering there is none)
I am looking to buy earth and light monsters as well as gold monsters...at the panic discount of course.
And I don't want Commons or Rares, I will just buy packs for that shit.
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The problem is that there is no scarcity or no cap. If the developers had said; "There WILL be a cap after 100,000 cards sold" or 5000 users we would not have seen this price drop. And as more cards are being flooded the prices will continue to drop. They might recover some when the actual game is released and good cards means good guild which means good money to be made.
But unless there is scarcity there is no incentive for prices to hold. Ive said that all along. People need to feel that they hold something unique, something valuable. And if the developers just say there is going to be no cap..well..
I just don't get why they didn't cap THESE cards, and issued new ones. It would make so much more sense. Limit the production of the first cards, so that everyone that were early got the first edition cards, unique first editions that had scarcity. Issue a new edition that was cheaper to attract more people etc.
Make no mistake - I love the concept and I do have some faith in it (I have over 2000 cards) but it's important to realize that it could fail. Except that it does not mean that games like these wont be around. There will be other games - MANY games. There will probably be tens if not hundreds of similar games running og Steem soon. Some sucky, some great. Steemmonsters is the first one and the first one rarely becomes the best one.
But also keep in mind that digital assets are reusable..which means that if Steemmonsters fail, it could theoretically be possible to use the cards in another game.
I understand the scarcity comment, completely, I really do. What I do not understand is that fact that the drop rates are at such a low percentage for the rarest cards that it is very scarce. 1/12000 cards is a gold legend. the likelihood of someone getting a rare card and buying another one and combining them I would venture to say is more probably then one being dropped out of a pack. And so I don't really buy the scarcity viewpoint just yet....I don't know it's a difficult concept to grasp for sure that is why I want to know how many Legends and seperate golds have been dropped and how many presently exist. There is a difference.
First step ist lowering the drop rates like @aggroed indicated as possibility to reward early buyers.. for Legendary from 1% to 0.2% per card. But you are right the supply increases day by day and is already quite high in comparison to current holders. As long there is no tournament there is also no greater demand for the cards. For me it's about time now.. we have simply to wait until the game is out. I think many people are simply not interested just collecting the cards, they wanna play.
Another thing is, i think there are also very impatient people or addicted booster pack buyers which don't wanna buy&hold or thought of a quick buck in days but with these prices currently a seller could have a hard time. I totally agree also with @heyimsnuffles regarding the prices for Epics and Legendary but that's also because @thomasgutierrez (the immortalized 😁) sold loads of cards and diluted the market further. Soon that will be over, it's a sell wave.
The game system is crucial for the success in my eyes. If it's a well balanced, tactical and exciting game it could be a huge success for the Steem blockchain and also Steemit, more than the Kitties or Giftomon. I see a very challenging task to balance all the elements with specific abilities, special bonuses, upcoming items and so forth.
If there is no limited supply the prices would never rise above booster packs if you look at the distribution of each rarity class in my point of view. That would be bad for both, collectors and players because i think it's much more fun to have some very rare cards to collect and also to battle for. That's the stuff legends are made of! ⚔
Accurate thoughts.
We have groundbreaking stats on the way which are inline with your values and thoughts about regular values.
It looks like the market is correct to the values you've predicted, epics are undervalued and current sales of golds aren't far away from the comparable regulars.
One thing is for certain, if prices don't rise, cards will become undervalued very quickly on the run up to launch.
I can't wait for those stats. I really hope you incorporate the amount of "dropped" cards and the amount of "present cards (combined ones)" because there is a huge difference and I think people are missing that point alot.
Wait no longer..
That is all the cards in existence in there, combined included.
Next week we will have a breakdown of the amount of theoretical Lvl 1 cards in existence based on exp.
I think your basic idea is right, but your future numbers are wrong. The longer term prices will revolve around the marginal cost of cards which is determined by the cost of a new pack. I'll be writing a post on this at some point.
It will also revolve around the amount of cards that have been combined because that decreases the cards in circulation and make a single one more powerful, Epics and Legendaries are scarce as shit buying packs now...and they will only deplete as they are combined...
I don't think that's actually true though. Drop rates have remained pretty constant.
To Me the "Drop Rates" are different than "Circulating"....Considerign that drop rate is based off what comes out of packs...not what is combined. I read it that way, but may be wrong. Needs to be clarified.
Yes, drop rates and circulating are different things. But the buyer always has the choice - buy from the secondary market or buy a pack?
We know that a pack costs 2 USD and has about has a certain percentage chance of common/rare/epic/legendary. So there is an expected value to buying a random pack.
Right now the numbers are too small and create big variances. When the game is in full swing though, that choice between buying a card and buying a new pack will be the fundamental pricing mechanism.
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Gold legends start above 200 /250 SBD
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