I think your basic idea is right, but your future numbers are wrong. The longer term prices will revolve around the marginal cost of cards which is determined by the cost of a new pack. I'll be writing a post on this at some point.
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It will also revolve around the amount of cards that have been combined because that decreases the cards in circulation and make a single one more powerful, Epics and Legendaries are scarce as shit buying packs now...and they will only deplete as they are combined...
I don't think that's actually true though. Drop rates have remained pretty constant.
To Me the "Drop Rates" are different than "Circulating"....Considerign that drop rate is based off what comes out of packs...not what is combined. I read it that way, but may be wrong. Needs to be clarified.
Yes, drop rates and circulating are different things. But the buyer always has the choice - buy from the secondary market or buy a pack?
We know that a pack costs 2 USD and has about has a certain percentage chance of common/rare/epic/legendary. So there is an expected value to buying a random pack.
Right now the numbers are too small and create big variances. When the game is in full swing though, that choice between buying a card and buying a new pack will be the fundamental pricing mechanism.