I do like narrow AI. Can't wait until cars drive themselves.
The question is about general AI.
There is a high chance of exponential growth and humans are very bad in judging that. It's just not obvious in day to day life.
But will it actually happen? I find it hard to assign a probability to the question: are we going to have general AI by 2050.
Chances are it takes way longer or might not happen for a long time.
Like fusion reactors. They seem to be around 20 away - for the last 40 years.
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Thank you for your reply @bluerobo
That's right, predicting technology is something really complicated.
I think that there is more important question: is the general AI possible? Think about that: if it experiences consciousness, it may decide immediately after turning on that there is no sense of life and turn off.
This sounds like a very human way of thinking to me. In my mind, a general AI would think in very different concepts. Why would it care about us in that way in the first place?
As a thought - this might be a stretch:
Humans are mammals. To a certain extent we suppose we can imagine what other mammals might think.
But. Thinking like an insect, a spider for example, sounds very freaky. It is so far removed from us.
I am pretty sure, if there was a general AI, it would have different reasoning than humans.
We might not comprehend it.
As long as AI is subject to laws of robotics or ethics - thought up by humans - its not truly general.
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