Humanity does not intuitively grasp the concept of exponential growth, and so it’s psychologically ill-prepared for what’s about to happen and, especially, the speed with which it’s about to happen. Due to exponential growth trends in technologies, all of which have continued uninterrupted for decades now, you will experience more change over the next decade than humanity has experienced in...the last 100 years! Such is the nature of exponential growth.
Exponential growth appears inconsequential at first because it starts from such a small base. But there are many, many exponential growth trends that have just recently achieved (or are just now achieving) 1% adoption or market penetration. For instance, in the US, solar energy achieved 1% penetration in 2017 and is more than doubling EVERY YEAR (as it has been for decades). It’s tempting to think “wow, it’s taken us DECADES to get to 1% solar, so it’ll take another hundred years or more to get anywhere close to 100%.” Right? WRONG!!!
Once a exponential technology achieves 1% penetration, it’s only 7 doublings way from 100%! (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 100). At its historical growth trend (which is actually accelerating, not decelerating), clean, reliable, decentralized solar will provide virtually all of the world’s needed energy in only...7 years (AT MOST!). By 2025, virtually all of your concerns about “Peak Oil”, carbon emissions, etc. will be a thing of the past. And this will happen naturally as a consequence of long-established growth trends and not as a result of some government program or subsidy (though politicians will no doubt try to claim credit).
Solar is just one example of many other technologies that recently achieved (or soon will achieve) 1% penetration after decades of growing exponentially. Blockchain (bitcoin) is another. Robotics is another. Virtually reality is another. Artificial Intelligence is another. And fast on their heels are self-driving cars, nanotechnology, gene editing (CRISPR), 3D Printing (which will make us all both producers and consumers of much of what we want and need), and many, many more.
As a consequence of them, your life will be completely remade over the next decade. Like...completely. These technologies will solve many of our most intractable problems (for instance, by providing unlimited supplies of cheap, clean energy) while also no doubt creating new ones (the “Rise of the Machines”?). Entire industries will be decimated (finance and banking by blockchains, manufacturing by ubiquitous 3D printing, medicine by AI doctors and robotic surgeons, trucking and taxi driving by self driving cars, etc.).
If you don’t see these changes coming and prepare for them now, you’ll be decimated by them. For instance, you’ll waste enormous amounts of energy fighting demons that have already effectively been slain, like by “fighting” for clean energy. There’s no need to fight for clean energy. Fighting for clean energy today is like fighting to install telephone “land lines” in Africa in the early 1990’s. Doing that would have been a total waste and actually counterproductive—today most everyone in Africa has access to a mobile phone!
Clean energy will be here very, very soon, and there’s nothing that anyone can really do to stop it or to accelerate it. By wasting time, energy and money “fighting” for that issue, you’ll be ill-prepared for the world that’s about to be.
By contrast, if you do see these exponential changes coming, then you can spend your energy on things that can really make a difference to your future and the world’s. If you do that, then you’ll experience a Golden Age of an unprecedented degree.
If you’re under the age of 60 (and certainly if you’re under 50), please take the time to read what Silicon Valley has been trying to tell us. Read every book by Ray Kurzweil. Read “Zero Marginal Cost Society” by Jeremy Rifkin. Read “Zero to One” by Peter Thiel. Read everything you can about bitcoin and blockchain. Do everything you can to get your mind around the significance of exponential growth. EVERYTHING YOU CAN.
Shit’s about to get real, ya’ll. Real real.
Woah !! In my 8 months time on steemit, I havent read anything so powerful and so effective !!
So if this is true, then I need not worry about any damn thing because technology is gonna take care of it !! Isn’t it!!
What should I stress about now 😅😅?
I really feel there is an utmost need to read these authors you suggested!!
Steemit is making me so knowledgeable!!
I mean so much information about totally different topics, and I try read them as much as possible!!
I never knew so much about things as much as i know these days 😅😅!
Anyway, brilliant work @sean-king !! 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
Steemit is a great place compared to libraries when you're in college isn't it?
Completely? Then I'll probably get married then. 😂😂😂
Ah I'm feeling my age all of a sudden.
I always thought that I'm already late knowing about the blockchain and other emerging technologies of the present time, upon reading your article, it gave me the thought that there's more to come and it will gonna come faster than expected. Well that excites me!
I wonder what kind of world will I wake up to when all of this technologies will be up and running at its full potential. I imagine a life where I would wake up and getting ready for work while my 3D printer is producing my clothes for the day (probably my own design) and my robots are preparing my breakfast and cleaning my house. Probably most of my work task will be automated and assisted by machines and AI(s), this will surely cut down my office work, giving me more time for personal and social activities, it sounds promising and feasible!
Well, that is something to look forward to, 7 years from now. I wonder how are we doing as a Steemian by that time comes...
It's called Universal Basic Income but will come at a huge cost !
I never heard of that until my friend @smawkward told me. I have to look it up before I give my opinion about it.
I am already collecting a Universal Basic Income....
really ? where ? is this part of a pilot scheme ?
It’s the Manna crypto currency... Universal Basic Income I receive every 7 days for Free
I'm not familiar with Mana will look into it. So are saying your UBI is earned from your crypto or is UBI something different which you receive ? If so from whom ?
This is the only ubi I have.... I get about 100 Manna a week. I only signed up 3 weeks ago. Manna trades at about a penny but I am accumulating every week and if it goes to $1 or $10 I will have a nice Basic Income. I could easily live on $1,000 a week.
Great thought provoking post. Thank you for the book recommendations, I'm now well stocked for all the hours I spend on airplanes.
People often point to the current centenarians and contemplate the dramatic scope of how the world changed from the horse-and-buggy to the internet.What if that type of change happened every ten years? Every five years?
Today with the advent of the internet and wireless communication the time lag of transmission is near zero. Given these rapid timescales, we can expect the emergence of novel and world changing events to occur more and more frequently. Dramatic change will be the new norm for our lives in the future.
I remember reading years ago about the Golden Age that is called "Satya Yuga" in the Hindu spiritual tradition or the age of the truth, but I imagined it as being more of a souls transformation era rather than a technological one.
Now with all the progress that humanity has already made that you mention in your post I start to think that there can't be no spiritual growth without the external growth. Once we evolve everything around us changes. Even the environment. At the same time is very important to be a part and embrace the opportunities of blockchain, free energy and AI have to offer. AI scares me a bit I have to say, but having robots as surgeons with the help of AI is a an important step for humanity. Last thing before becoming too boring I want to point that first that came to my mind when you wrote about the exponential technology growth was the golden ratio of Fibonacci that describes very well what you are pointing at in this topic.
As a mechanic, motorcycle enthusiast and gear head, part of me wants those technologies to remain here forever. I know they won't except for reminders and antiques of a by gone era. But as a thinking, cognizant human I know they are a fading trend in the annals of our industrial history.
Ray Kurzweil and others believe there are humans living on the planet now who will be in effect, immortal. That is crazy to think about. The singularity is here.
While I make my living working on technology that is over 100 years old, I am constantly looking to the future and what amazing opportunities it will bring. And more importantly how can I capitalize on them.
I have read Kurzweil but not the others. Thanks for the heads up. I will add them to my list.
We live in exciting times. And shit is indeed about to get real. Excellent post!
Indeed @sean-king, technology advances exponentially, and a common example of this is the processing power of computers (they get more powerful as well as decreasing in size) or the graphics in video games.
There is concept called technological singularity that consists on a hypothetical event that might happen in the future if we continue with technology advancing exponentially, have you heard about it?
Another factor to take into account, is the implications of AI advancing exponentially in their knowledge and skills, that is why Elon Musk is worried about that specific technology.
But either way, I think our future is going to be better than our present, just like our present is better than our past.
I've heard of singularity before, it is a point in time where intelligence exponentially spikes over time. And as a result, machines could possibly become self conscious, like what happened in the matrix :D
Yeah that's some real shit right here! It's crazy to think what's coming to us in the next decade. Technology is advancing so rapidly, there's no stopping it. It's always great to know about these things and be prepared for it, because the average Joe doesn't even have the slightest idea of the lifestyle changes we'll be experiencing.
Damn. Thank you for this post and this great book recommendations. Well done!
Yes very compelling! followed/re-steemed, I like you style!
Ray Kurzweil's book "The Singularity is Near" is one of the things that brought me to crypto early.
Whilst waiting at a train station, I watched two women bump heads as they were both on their phones and not paying attention to anything else. BONK ! The platform was crowded, yet I am sure I am the only other person who saw this happen ..because everyone else was doing the Same thing themselves. I smiled to myself that I saw this small secret moment.
Really enjoyed reading your post. Other than exponential growth, the concept of critical mass (adoption) and tipping point are also relevant here. Re-blogging this so more than read it.
Thank you for suggestion of the book,well,actually name of the writer...
You are totally right what you are saying and i want to add that technology has no limit to stop...and it is not a process it is actually a necessity and technology evulates itself due to the need of humanity...
Read every line and i must confess that you are so right.. The world is fast changing and it's left for us young mind to embrace it and be prepared for the change. Failure to do this will leave us stranded in the near future.. I'll go through the books that you've recommended. Thanks for this great piece
i appreciate your words.
Very elegant way to present you, The truth is in all your words.
It is possible to get many useful examples from your writing. well done and keep it up.
Haha
Shit's about to get real
It's really scary but exciting at the same time..
I agree 100%. But ...
I'm worried about the unemployment rate that will follow. In the decades to follow, when most jobs become obsolete, I don't see the solution for employment.
Humanity will keep thinking up new things that people will need to work on. Jobs have been dissapearing for a long time and people move to new careers.
I believe that theory. In fact, the world is changing so rapidly and dramatically that it is likely in 10 years it will be possible what now seems unreal.
Very interesting read @sean-king!
I've been wondering about this too. Once robots take over the jobs of humans, there will only remain few fields where humans will be needed. I wonder what jobs will the rest of the humankind be doing to earn their daily bread when the time comes?
Exponential growth is really scary because sometimes people might not be able to keep up with the change and sometimes that does more damage than good, however it also wipes out the weak ones and brings out the best.
Clean energy is one thing this world really needs. I think you're right about that. It will be here sooner than we could expect (hopefully).
Exponential growth and the compound interest are the things who understands fully will start getting profits from it and who ignore them will be paying for it. We should not underestimate its power.
Well I am glad that I am one of the early adapters of blockchain technology in our country (and most especially in steemit platform!). Anyway, I totally agree with you, our lives will be remade decades from now, the future is already here and we need to be prepared for what is coming next. Although I'm a little bit aware of what's coming, still thank you for the heads up! Will read these books that you recommend, I hope these are available in the internet.
Hmmm...I think all you describe is end of humanity...most humans dont have capability to keep up with tech pace...dont forget that tech advances can be negative as well...the human condition wont just roll over...someone will pull the plug before nirvana is reached...
Thank you one sensible voice in a sea of blind sheeple
I can't make it if your are proposing this as a good thing ? Anyone who thinks great, machines will do everything for us and we can sit back and relax, bring on Universal Basic Income - needs to do some research. Expect totalitarian control and depopulation to follow !
It may be good or it may be bad, but it’s definitely unstoppable, so might as well deal with reality.
Blockchains have made totalitarian control and depopulation much, much more difficult to pull off. I’m much less concerned now about figuring out how to live in an overregulated world and much more concerned about how to live in an unregulatable one.
Hi thanks for the reply. I do agree people need to wake up and plan ahead rather than be ignorant and hope everything will be ok.
I do also agree that blockchain and AI can be used for both good and bad, however you only have to look at The Cambridge Analytica (just the tip of the iceberg) and Indias Aadahar biometic system, or walk round a city in Asia to see the way things are going. No one pays for anything wth cash, if you are not on Indias system you can't do anything, and AI will soon know more about us than we know about ourselves. Sounds like 1984 !
I applaud the article for bringing this to people's attention !
Should have said my comment about depopulation was maybe a step too far lol but the rest could quite easily be coming to a town near you very soon !
Dear @sean-king,
It sounds wonderful when you say it and it is hard not to get carried away. But (and yes there is always a but), every single bit of technology that has advanced has limited what an ordinary consumer can do with it. In fact we are all at the mercy of governments, companies, hackers and intelligence agencies. I have read kurzweils singularity idea and what he does not mention is how easy it makes for us to be controlled.
So lets play devils advocate:
Every single advancement brings us closer to a world wherein very few people control everyone else. It is like the matrix, we can live in our make believe world and think everything is peachy keen. Google did not make search to be altruistic. Facebook has not done us any favours by make itself free.
I firmly believe that it is our collective responsibility to make sure that we are free thinking, independent and self willed. Remember that if blockchain creates self serving communities then it is no use for the powers that be. if they cannot regulate you then they serve no purpose.
will bitcoin survive government attacks? By having our own connected worlds are we creating a dystopian universe? As technologies advance so shall control. If AI is smarter than us then how are we useful and who are we useful to?
The one thing that is assured that with crypto currency we are ready to pay the price!!
Yes, bitcoin and blockchain will survive government attacks, just like the Internet did.
Blockchain as a technology is a guaranteed to be a part of many things that will happen in the future. i definitely think you are right that Bitcoin (or some other crypto currency) will rule the roost. What i really meant was that we all know how governments and monopolistic companies work. Hence the beneficial effects of technology should not be taken for granted. we will have to fight for it. Bitcoin vs Banks is going to be a knock-down drag-out kind of fight. ofcourse that is why we are all investing in it! but we may need to do more. we may need to take it to the streets.
You did a lot of research to write this. You have actually thought me how to make quality posts on steemit.
We must always be ready for growth. Kodak wasn't!
This particular post of mine is a creative writing on the penis. Please feel free to encourage me with your generosity.
Thank you @sean-king
https://steemit.com/writing/@ambdavid/your-penis-is-all-you-need