In my previous post, I discussed that we might expect a 'triangle pattern' to form during the recent downward consolidation period in Ethereum. I think it's fair to say that one did form(!), and that this resulted in a trading opportunity from the break upwards. Unfortunately, with all the activity surrounding BTC split and also with being a bit busy, I didn't get a chance to make a post about it at the time :( ... so apologies. However, I thought it still might be of some interest to discuss it (even if it's too late for trading the particular break-out point).
First thing I wanted to mention, though, was that in https://steemit.com/trading/@xaero1/ethereum-ta-discussion-part-2-a-few-things-i-missed, I drew a possible sketch of what such a triangle could potentially look like:
Now - I really don't know what I was thinking (even though I said I chose a random point for the bottom line) -- because the obvious point to choose was at the very bottom of the dip!!!!!
Here's what actually happened in the weeks since - and I've marked what looks to me like the obvious triangle which formed:
So, a natural trading opportunity would have been to buy when the break-out occurred (I've marked this point with an arrow).
Here's also a zoomed up version, which shows the maximum profit that you could have got (although, of course, it's very difficult to sell right at the top..):
In fact, for me, there were pointers which I saw in the chart which changed my position from being moderately pessimistic about an upward bounce (after we dropped down from $230) - to becoming quite positive by the time the triangle completed:
(1) [yellow arrow] This point that we bounced at was pretty much the perfect point to give a just-about a perfect symmetrical triangle, formed by touching both the highest and lowest points of the whole correction period.
(2) [cyan arrow] The green bar rebounded higher than the red bar which preceded it. Very bullish!
(3) [blue arrow] The third low point is higher than the bottom line of our triangle. Very bullish!
(4) [magenta arrow] The green bar on this next low point also (again!) rebounds higher than the red bar which precedes it. Very bullish!
So, personally, I built a position as this triangle was closing due to the above factors - so perhaps my overall buy price-in was around $190. (However, my exiting of the move has so far been the opposite! ;( I was expecting more of a bounce, so didn't sell around the $230 mark, and instead lost quite a bit of the gain by selling low and then re-buying back higher (haha...) - but still in profit (for now!))
Anyway, this retrospective analysis isn't very useful for deciding whether to buy or sell now. I was therefore going to discuss the current charts, but probably I should make a separate post for it. But, with that said, I'm perhaps leaning a bit towards the bullish side right now.
One reason is that on the 1-day chart, the EMA lines are getting very close to each other! In the chart below, I've marked a cyan circle around this:
The implication of this is that if the price were to move just a bit more upwards, then these lines might cross and therefore provide a buy signal on this timeframe (and using this method for choosing signals); On the other hand, however, a 'close miss' of a cross-over is very much a strong reason to sell (from my experience). So, it could go either way - but because they are coming close together, a trading opportunity for a break-up or break-down could occur soon (based on this methodology) :-)
But this is not trading advice. Also, since I'm always looking to trade bullish-looking moves (since I don't short-sell), I'm often wrong a lot of the time (e.g., buying in advance of something I think could happen, but doesn't!)
DISCLAIMER: This post does not offer trading advice, and I am not suggesting the reader should buy (or sell) Ethereum. Any trading decisions the reader may make after reading this must be completely at their own responisbility. Any comments I make are simply describing reasons I may make for my own trades, and do not have any non-subjective 'scientific' backing.
I check the price of Ethereum with my friend now. It's $272! Awesome!
It is..... as I mentioned in my posts, I was hoping for / expecting a 50% retrace back up, I.e., around $740. When crypto is so predictable, it's basically free money!!!!!
Have an upvote😀
I believe you must be an expert in trading, right?
It is not so predictable for me. It's super hard to predict. My predictions are usually wrong :D
Just experience, nothing else.
It's predictable in the sense of good probabilities.
Here's an example: If something goes up in value, it is likely to then retrace 50% back down of the upward movement; If something goes down in value, it is likely to then retrace 50% back up up of the downward movement! Hopefully I'll write some more posts 😀
It seems like ETH did will and it may do even better when Bitfinex releases Ethfinex. I think that the price will continue to rise but I don't think it will reach the highs as we saw before during this years.
Thank you for your analysis @xaero! :)
Awesome...hadn't heard of that until now! Thanks 😄
Agree with you too.... I'm expecting a longish period of consolidation, but maybe with some bounces:)
Well today is a good day for crypto. Just in a couple of hours, so much money has been pumped into crypto and bitcoin is passed $3100. Luckily for me I bought some bitcoin yesterday because I was going to turn it into fiat to put it towards paying my rent and now I've got a little extra to help out haha
I recently wrote a post about do you need sadness to be happy but it doesn't seem like it since with this has just put a huge smile on my face.
Seems like this extra money pumped into the market has also trickled down to Ethereum.
It is time to pop open a bottle of wine @xaero1 and celebrate haha
Yes, last night was amazing! I took big positions in ETH, BTC, and a small one LTC. Nice when things do everything you wanted ;). Congrats on your trading!!😎🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾
There is loads of speculation that Litecoin will be the main currency to do transactions in Asia and that Litecoin can reach highs of $80 sooner or later.
How far do you agree with this?
Congratulations om your success as well @xaero1
Now we just need steem to follow everyone else haha
Smiles all around! <3
I haven't been following any news really....other than the BTC fork, and that segwit will activate on BTC by Tuesday. Therefore I plan to sell before then!!! Buy the rumour, sell the news...I believe many people expect this, and therefore it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy even. But yes, Litecoin has a lot of volume, but I'm not up with any news.
Apart from the BTC stuff, I'm just trading on the technicals, and ETH and LTC both looked like they were about to break positive on the 1 day EMAs crossing over! So that's why I bought those :). No idea of an upper bound for LTC, but for ETH, I'm hoping for a 50% retrace back upwards from the lowest point😄
Hi @xaero1 I've written an article about you, check it out if you can, thanks.
21 Best Steemians Of The Day To Follow 6th August 2017
https://steemit.com/steemit/@jzeek/21-best-steemians-of-the-day-to-follow-6th-august-2017
Wow...thanks ;D
Yes this is not a get rich quick scheme.
... any more 😅
@xaero1 thanks for this post. I found other comments on what is happening on the cryptomarkets very technical and incomprehensible (for the layman). This is something completely different. Perhaps you will give more articles more often ;-). Wish you good luck!
Thanks! Although I already had good luck (just need to try to avoid losing all my gains) ;). But I wish you great luck! 😄
Who are you..??
Have you angry to me..?
If i was wrong, im so sorry,,
What can i do for you,
Say something to me,,
Im so said, my article empty vote, just you always vote my article
@xaero1
Believe it or not, but steemit isn't my full time job! 😀 So, Just like with a business, if their tech support dept gets overwhelmed with emails, they aren't going on be able to respond in a timely fashion - or at all if there are too many!😰
The right word is i hope you respond to my article because i assume that you you are the person i rely on, if you have time please see my post
@xaero1
in spite of many factors you made it obtaining good results, I believe that the knowledge at the moment is shining in your favor, thanks for the information provided in advance, I will continue reading you dear @xaero1
Thanks for your kind comment😄
You are good,,
So smart ..
@xaero
Hehe...awesome...love it🤣
Very very beautiful post @xaero1
Good job
Great analysis @xaero1!! This is exactly the pattern i was following. It helped me to hold onto my ethereum, such that once this break happened, I knew there would be quite a strong move up. But as you imply in your blog above, need to closely monitor for pull backs. At least there is a great place below which to keep a stop now!
Awesome! Thanks......that ethereum move was like 'free money' so obvious. Whereas the bitcoin spike up was so much more difficult to predict in my opinion since it wasnt a retrace....in fact I think the return was even better (I had money in both, so that was kinda nice😄)
Always nice to have money in both!! just a case of limiting your risk, knowing when you are wrong, and playing the odds using patterns and fundamentals such as this. if this can be done with discipline, more often than not, you find that many things will go up at the same time!! love it! #tradingcrypto
Cheers! I find I'm not bad at trading well and making money when I'm staring at the screen.....my problem is whenever I need to look away for a bit / do something else / sleep / haha ....that's when I normally lose money! I guess everyone in crypto not using an auto trading system has this same problem :-/ Haven't figured out a solution, and there probably isn't one!😂
I think solution is to use steemit all day long, I generally find it keeps me awake for most hours of the day and night, so that I manage to catch most of the moves up and avoid the really bad moves down ;)) but essentially, If you are making profits trading, my rule of thumb is to take some profits out and use those to put very very small positions on interesting ICOs and then re balance out to some good value alt coins. this way, I manage to sit through the drops that i miss a bit happier knowing that i took profits already. The other thing I do is to accept that I will never catch all the drops and get out in time, so it is therefore, a serious game of phsychology against myslef. can i get through the hard losses during the pull backs or am i too much of a chicken to hold through? Am I able to wait for the exact right moment to average down if I have gotten into trouble? but most importantly, can I learn to love the pains of being a trader, i mean really learn to love those difficult days and laugh at them! see them as part of the joys of trading, when the market drops say "Oh yes! I love this! BRING IT ON!!" And also I try to avoid going for a crap. whenever I crap, the market goes down. I should start and SMS trading indicator called the starkerz crapometer
Thanks for taking the time to write that - very Interesting to read!!
Agree about having to have to right attitude - all trades whether good or bad are part of job - as are factors that you can't control either😂
thanks for empathising with my rant! with trading, my opinion is that the only thing u can control is ur mind and ur reactions to the market everything else is just noise and time :))
help me please
https://steemit.com/video/@mariaozawa/disc-jockey-mariaozawa-dj-goldie-terrace-jogja-201785t2148609z
Do not you want to help me again master @xaero1 ?
Sorry, but my post is getting cluttered up with people asking to upvote a post - therefore I decided that I must avoid upvoting any post that people request I upvote, in order to discourage this!
Otherwise, if I happen to see a post of yours and I like it, i can upvote that in the future.
Anyway, have an upvote for that really cute gif 😀
Oooo I understand, by the way thanks for his praise 😁
Here you go buddy
.gif)
Haha😂
Hello, thank you for sharing your insights on the recent market trend. The charts indicate that ether broke the consolidation pattern in a bullish manner, however, do you anticipate it rebounding back to the previous 3 months high? And since it broke the upper resistance, im sure many traders will be looking to pump and dump and make quick profits on this
Thanks for your comment! I'm personally looking for a 50% retrace at least since we haven't had that yet. I.e., (412+136)/2 = 274. So, I'd want to take some profit if we got as far as this. Then maybe, buy back on a dip. But yeah, after that we can look for other Fibonacci levels -- but I'm not that convinced we're likely to see another big high until nearer when metropolis is released. But, first we need to break the 1-day ema! 😄
Let's connect in our #Discord we need some more #Chartists great post by the way keep it up we just gave this one 100% Steem Power!
OMG! That's one huge upvote😳Thanks so much! Wow... so much SP 😀
Cool I should join that channel!
@xaero1 @adsactly
nice to see you guys in one comment
@imamaii
Solid thesis for finding an entry before the actual break. I generally react to the breakout or break down to find entries. With the break of the triangle and the subtle pullback now makes for a pretty solid entry too.
Of course, getting in before the break and being on the correct side will always be a better entry price.
Thanks for the ETH review, I mainly post Steem and BTC analysis when I do those type posts.
Many thanks!
Hahahaha your meme is so cool..
I like your post about crypto..
Very smart about crypto
Thanks... one of my favourite movies! (Though kill bill I, is the better one ;) )
Owh yupsss..
@xaero1
Thank you for yoyr post, now we have another possible try, wish me luck
Good luck!😀
nc post and meme bro.
Thanks😃
Hello, Thanks for this well thought out and informative article. Do you think this is going to rebound back?
I really don't know. The chart looks like to me like it could allow for a break upwards, so I'm prepared for this outcome. However, there still seems to be a significant downward force which is pressing against this, and the 3-day and 1-weeks charts still have MACD in the red.
Great and happy to see that ethereum broke out of triangle as well according to technical analysis that i also posted on my profile..
ENJOY PROFITS.....
Thanks 🙏
Tremendous triangle
You must be a big profit @xaero1 :)
good luck master
Thanks! Yeah, trading crypto is sometimes like taking candy from a baby😀
Hehehe
That's if we've experienced in crypto @xaero1
Surely you can buy anything with it
I also want to be like that, what key :) @xaero1
Get a time machine, go back a year and buy BTC & ETH! But seriously, luck is the biggest factor - I.e., right place, right time. There are still ways to make money trading, like today, but a good return now is 20% rather than 10x. Anyway, I'll try to post more articles if I can😄
Ow so, i want to be serious in BTC & ETH, but my capital is so small so same with my profit also small
That's good, I will wait for your next postings, because your post is very helpful for people like me
can you follow me master @xaero1 :)
Done:)
thank a lot :)
Do you have steemitchat master @xaero1 :)
@xaero1 nice post these triangles are indeed an incredible way of spotting an opportunity. I see that you are an experienced technical analyst so I am gonna ask you a lame Qs. Would the triangle spotting also be successful on a chart like BCC (bitcoin cash) where there is very little data as it is a new born coin. What does your experience suggests?
Im not sure so much about the other coins. Also, it's made more complicated because a lot trade against BTC, which relatively unstable.
What I would say that bitcoin is the best one for triangle pattterns. But as we saw there, we got a nice one in this instance for ethereum too. Not sure about the others, but I guess you might find them in some instances for the likes of Litecoin, Monero, Dash, etc....but I don't really know as I don't trade these much. So probably BCH might be similar. But I have definitely seen them sometimes on poloniex even trading against BTC, but it's more random I think.
However, what I would say is EMA crossovers and MACD crossovers apply very well to any coin (privided not really low volume) in my experience. So I would probably look to these indicators more than triangles for these other coins.
Nice man. Always good to find other traders posting in depth technical articles. Given you a follow and look forward to more.
Why don't you short though? Who cares?
Thanks!
Shorting ... too scary! Plus it means I have borrow money and owe it back; I don't think there is even the liquidity for the large positions I like to take but I could be wrong....but the idea of paying interest to borrow something does not appeal in any case :) If you only go long at 1:1, you are in complete control of your position :)
Great information !!! Cross-over is very much a strong reason to sell
Sell, or buy! ---- Look for which way they cross!
Also, sometimes you need to buy before they actually cross over to make a good gain. But this is risky, since it might not cross!😀
That's a very good analysis for me,
I want to ask, is the graph like triangle good for trading? @xaero1
Triangles are awesome for trading! I was able to get around a 20% gain, with very little risk once it was clear we'd break upwards.
Oh means you are big profits
Whether the triangle is often the case @xaero1
Hahahah i have meme bitcoin
But you tell about eitherum.. Hahahaa
For funny ,, your post is so good.. 100
@xaero1
😀
Hi :-)@xaero1
Very fantastis..wow super post..very important for every one has trading..
Your meme is so quite..i like it..
@xaero1
Thanks😆
I am still trying to learn how to read those graphs and different trading options as for right now i only know how to do limit and stop loss orders. Short selling looks like an interesting option when backed up by double amount of currency in case things go north :) Thank you for sharing learning quite a few things from you. Cheers!
Thanks!
I don't do shorting or margin trading, but I have enough capital that I don't need to - I find there are enough reliable ways to make money from upward movement only; also there are so many cryptos that at any time there's likely to be a few on the rise.
But if you are willing to use a more aggressive strategy, or are starting from a low base (so doesn't matter too much if you lose it), then it might be worth it ;)
One of the reasons i am learning those is just to educate myself ant try how it works with low amounts. And you are right another reason i am looking into this that i can risk it, because if i want to make a difference in my current standing i have to go all in and risk it. Otherwise considering my amounts it would not justify for the time spent. Lets say for today i would short on BTC. It has already tested it's all time high today i believe :) But we will see. Let's say it is a virtual bet :)
Make sense. Also, If I try to buy something like 2500ETH (max-ing out, haha!), I would need to build the position over some time...otherwise I lose too much in slippage! So, its easier with a smaller amount - you can close your position quicky without much cost.
Also, there are times when you can really minimise risk!!! The key time is when b-bands are really tight. Like last night, just before the break-out. I already had most of my position, but added to it at that point. If I did margin trading or shorting I would probably only ever do it in this situation! Why? Because as soon as the b-bands start to widen, there's a very good chance you'll get a great return, and most of the time, you don't expect to get an immediate reversal once it's decided on the direction. Hopefully I'll try to make another post on the recent eth breakout 😄
Ok, it will take me some time to decipher those terms here :) Copied it to clipboard and off to do a google search on b-bands and break-outs :)
Haha😂 Cheers:)
Oh, by the way :) You've just been called a horny dude on this post Funny people... envy is the rot of humankind...
I also want to be like that
What key @xaero1 😊😊
I'll try to post some basic trading blogs hopefully- perhaps during a downturn, when I have more time! ;)
thanks for the information @xaero1
This really helped me :)
@xaero1 I am glad to see your post again after what seems like ages , hope you had a splendid holiday.
Your analysis is great, thanks for sharing, upped.
Many thanks!😄
Welcome, and amen to that which means that you are ok . Great to have you back on steemit.
Would like to get your take on this issue we are discussing in my blog post: Down voting : A Motivational Killer or A Strategic Use of Power?
We recently had flagging wars and people are like stabbing themselves with it? feel free to see my blog post for details.
Thanks and keep steeming to more success.
I think its a bermuda triangle 🔺 .
LOL, very good @ahmadrox
Thanks
😂😂😂
Hehe...
Hihi😅
Yeaaaahhh...
If in terms of ethereum, you are an expert @ xaero1.
ha ha ha ha
You have republished the result, I am also trying as you do, but there is no time left for me to do that..
I have resteem your post and upvote, that's all I can do for you @xaero1
Many thanks!
Now could be a buying opportunity, but nothing is guaranteed (Equally, it might not be - or that we get another dip first). Trading means risking money, although a good experience of recognition of repeating patterns can help greatly ive found😄
Hahahaha 😁😁
But, I do not really understand about ethereum, but I've seen my friend.
my friend sat in front of lapto for hours, the end of my friend full head. 😏😏😂😂
it turns out my friend big loss
@xaero1
Hahaha.... so you're saying your friend lost money trading (or something else)? Trading can definitely lose you money, this is true 😄
Yes, my friend lost money.
with a very large amount, 11 million rupiah, if in us dollars of 700 dollars.
My friend said, it happens in a matter of hours or minutes.
It's very dangerous. 😯😯
@xaero1
I know the feeling! But there are some sensible rules for trading.... e.g., like don't put all your money on a single trade (with leverage)! 😬
Ooowww nnnooo 😔😔😔
It's over and my friend has been out of the trade, having run out of major capital.
Im looking for capital, if there is capital I want to start trading.
I will learn from experts like you xaero, if you willing. 😁😁
Hallo @xaero1, I am interested in your various posts, maybe I can learn from your post to equate my various articles. And I've followed you so that posting always appear to me. Therefore I beg for help vote, reblog and follow back my account. Thank you for your attention
Cheers:)
I am from aceh. I am a newcomer in steemit. Very interesting information. Greetings from me @bukharisulaiman
Hiya :)
good post
;)
Wow i really really like your post..
Because you teach trading again..
@xaero1
Hahaahaha your meme is very amaizing..
You great boy..
All people like you..because your article make someone succes with your analisys..
Thank your post..
@xaero1
Great posts can be useful can be used as experience. Hope be a friend who can help me to be like you ..... to realize the dream and hope in reaching. Likes @yooraa need friend support. Greetings esteem.
I just got on your blog the first time today and after reading this Post I will probably stop by again :) I really like your analysis and the easy way you write about it. You offer a good reading experience on a finance topic, like it ;)
Thanks very much!
Good analysis. I will keep a watch on the chart.
very good...
thanks for sharing information.
please help me :
https://steemit.com/indonesia/@fahmidamti/suatu-saat-engkau-akan-mengerti-arti-sebuah-kenangan-one-day-you-will-understand-the-meaning-of-a-memory-201784t205128187z
Dear @xaero1
Travel to voyager estate,, lol voter,,
https://steemit.com/travel/@yingclara/travel-to-voyager-estate-2017819t14651518z
You can see this,,
Sorry spam_
@xaero1
Well that's erm...... a nice/interesting gif! 😉
Thanks you xaero1
I will wait your next post
@xaero
Whether you can show me your skills in eth trading..
I have
I just know bittrex ,, but I can not understand there is a little money there..
@xaero
Unless you have more capital there's not likely to be so much money you can make in trading rather than just holding....because trading is very time intensive and so probably not worth it otherwise.
But there are still ways to make big gains if you get into ICOs (tenx, status, file, civic, etc.). But again this requires huge amounts of time and research...I don't even do this much now. Good place to learn about this is Reddit: /ethtrader and /ethereum.
Good Information and analysis. Thank you for sharing this. @xaero1
This was the easiest most readable post that included charts, i have ever read. I just found you on Steem and look forward to reading your posts in the future.
Thanks for your kind comment!😄
Very nice analysis.
You have a good ability in analyzing ,, i salute with you, actually this work including easy just by trading we will have very good result ,, good job, Why do you rarely post, even though your article is very motivating everyone ,,?
@xaero1
Busy trading 😀 Will try to get better at posting, but theres always a big risk too...since it's not easy trying to predict the future!
Yes i know
Verry nice, cool
Hw to trade ethereum?
We also trading ethereum right? @xaero1
If you do not mind, can you see my post?
https://steemit.com/funny/@andravasko/basic-drunk-adult-funny-story-201782t191114547z
If you are too busy and do not have time to do it is okay 😁😁
Thanks. Yes, I trade mostly ethereum and also bitcoin, since liquidity is best. But altcoins sometimes. Although OMG! I missed out on OMG today ;/. Haha. Nice rise, but I know nothing about it so need to find out although a bit late now probably;)
Haha you are right, but you usually where do the trading?
I don't want to say exactly.... but exchanges which have a lot of liquidity but can also be trusted would be where I would recommend: e.g. Bitfinex, gdax, kraken, bitstamp, Gemini, etc ;)
ow thank you verry much
ETHEREUM?
woaw i like it ethereum, god job
Thanks for sharing @xaero1
Cheers😀
@xearo1 good post again :D
please come to my blog again,, i have many post interested :*
@imamaii
Cheers
@xaero1 are you online now...
please vote my post again @xaero1 :D
i see you online now in https://steemd.com/@xaero1 :D
very good friend excellent post interesting information @xaero1