When the general election campaign began in mid May 2024, Labour were polling at 46%. But when the votes were counted on 4th July, Labour got just 33.7% of the vote - the lowest winning percentage in over 150 years. Since then, through a series of mishaps, polls show Labour sinking to 25%.
The press has written screeds about what has gone wrong. Starmer's cheerleaders explain it by contending that on entering office, he was shocked to find that "there was no plan for govt". Apparently, he thought making a plan was nothing to do with him as Leader of the Opposition and then Elected Prime Minister. He claims the job of shaping his govt was down to his Chief of Staff, Sue Grey, whom he scapegoated and sacked three months into his govt.
Voters are incredulous at this. Can you imagine a Thatcher or Blair entering govt without personally signing off their program for governing? Even scatty PMs like Boris had signed off a doable plan to get Brexit over the line.
Despite Sue Grey's departure, the government is still floundering. The budget landed badly, with businesses reacting by freezing hiring. Unemployment will rise. There is no sense that Starmer had much of an input into the budget or any other part of govt. Starmer likes to spend his time on displacement activity trips abroad. When he is at home, he clocks off at 5 p.m.
The vacuum in No 10 makes the UK seem rudderless. No doubt Starmer will sack some more people, but increasingly it looks like the problem is him.
In any other party, knives would be sharpened. But the last time Labour got rid of a leader against their will was 1935.
The council elections in May will need to be a proper bloodbath before they move against him. And even then they might hold off, reasoning that "something will turn up".