Vertcoin crosses weekly SMA

in #vertcoin7 years ago

I'm not going to claim to be an expert analyst, but you'll find that most people who are watching Vertcoin these days are calling for something to be happening some time in the near future.

There's a couple of things that are notable:

For the first time since September, the Weekly chart has crossed below the Moving Average. Given that the longer term moving average is trending upwards, the likelihood is that it will soon cross back above. Having said that, the longer it stays below, the more the upward trend would start to pull back.

In September, it crossed back above the SMA after remaining below for 9 weeks - but then the price shot from around 20k satoshi to around 97k in around a month. It now sits at around 40k - so even during this down period, we're double where we were back in September (vs Bitcoin)

We're now into our 3rd week below the SMA - so we'll see what the next 4-6 weeks brings. I'm confident we should be seeing an upturn during that period.

VTC1W.PNG

The VTCUSD logarithmic chart has been consistently running through a price channel since Late 2016/Early 2017.

Throughout this period it has cycled from the bottom of that channel (March & September 2017, January 2018) to the top of that channel. (June, Oct-Dec). It seems that when we pull away from the top, it marks a period of consolidation. When we hit the bottom, it leads to a period of high growth.

If this pattern holds - then the end of February price should be no less than $6 (if it sticks to the bottom), and more likely pulling upwards somewhat, to somewhere between $9-$12

The past 12 months has shown it rising from bottom to top in 6-12 weeks - which would see a price of $30 by Mid-March, or around $45 by the end of April.

VTCUSD1Y.PNG

Like I said - I'm not an expert - all of this relies on the future continuing with the same patterns as recent history - and all of this can be recreated and explored easily by anybody on tradingview.com.

Technical Analysis aside, The fundamentals are also looking good for Vertcoin. One of the first coins that was SegWit enabled, and will be one of the first on the lightening network. They have a great dev team that are very approachable on Discord, and a great community to match. I've got my coins loaded onto my Ledger Nano S - something you can't just do with any coin. And you can also mine with a GPU - which you can't do with Bitcoin/Litecoin/Etherium etc. This coin is truly decentralised,
And in full disclosure, I've made no secret of the fact that I'm heavily invested in VTC - so you could argue that there's a bit of barracking/wishful thinking with some of the above.

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Helpful to me and everyone, thank you

thanks for your feedback

You are welcome. I always update your information

"...all of this relies on the future continuing with the same patterns as recent history..."

That's why I stay away from technical analysis altogether. If Vertcoin is made illegal in China or the SEC charges the founders with fraud (just examples) then it doesn't matter what the charts indicated.

well yeah, nothing is guaranteed when focusing on technicals alone - That's why I've also touched on the fundamentals of this coin (I've gone over it a lot in my prior posts but just touched on it again as a refresher).

Having said that - you can't ignore technical analysis altogether - as often the patterns are unmistakable, and mathematics is used a lot to make various predictions - not just with the performance of assets but with the wider society as well.

Oh well that's good. What percent of the time does technical analysis accurately predict these patterns?

How long is a piece of string?

The question you ask is often discussed, and studied, but nobody can ever really give you a definitive answer.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/062215/debunking-8-myths-about-technical-analysis.asp

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0261560692900483

Like I said - I'm not a technical analysis fanatic - I rarely base my investment decisions on that alone - I was invested in vertcoin before I saw any of the above stuff - Most of the technicals with Vertcoin I would have seen some time ago from other analysts and been watching ever since...