Screenshot from Coindance showing BIP 91 has now locked in
BIP 91 Locked In
I posted a couple of days ago about BIP 91 - this is a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal that once locked in would prevent activation of the UASF (or BIP 148) which has been the source of so much fear in the markets.
Well BIP 91 has now locked in which means that SegWit will soon become active on Bitcoin!
Anticipation of this happening seems to have already pushed the Bitcoin price up to new highs (for this month).
So what happens next?
Well as I understand it after a further 2 days of blocks BIP 91 will activate - this is a grace period to give people time to change their software to signal for Segwit. SegWit will activate roughly 2 activation periods (4 weeks) after this.
Thanks to @cardboard for his infographic which clarifies this in an easy to read manner.
Given the extremely positive reaction that there has been to the rising signalling of BIP 91 I think we will see a lot of people who were holding off on buying Bitcoin entering the market again.
There could be some steep gains, perhaps even conclusively breaking the $3K ceiling and making a new floor.
Strong FOMO could even push it some way beyond that.
Overall I think we will see the cryptocurrency markets turn more bullish again.
As I have explained before the more money that flows into bitcoin, the larger the total supply available to altcoins becomes as well.
So it is all plain sailing from here then?
Not quite as previously discussed the next hurdle will come in roughly two months time (after SegWit activation - so late October at the earliest) when there is a planned doubling in Bitcoin block size as per the SegWit 2x plan.
This will require an actual hard fork. As part of the "New York Agreement" - the same mining pools and companies which have signalled/supported BIP 91 have pledged that they will support the hard fork.
Despite this we may see renewed fear and uncertainty at that point as the words "hard fork" tend to scare a lot of people in the bitcoin community.
Given how relatively smoothly this has gone it seems likely that may also end up causing less turmoil (than expected) in practice.
We will have to wait and see.
Anyway it's quite late here and I will be going to bed shortly so may not be able to respond to all comments until tomorrow.
I'm going to buy bitcoin now thanks to this post hahaha :)
Cool but be careful the markets don't always make sense.
ok :)
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This was very helpful. Thanks for sharing. I think there will be wonderful opportunities for trading in the next few months.
UAHF here we come.
Indeed, most actual bitcoin users want the UAHF to bigger blocks. Check out this poll that can't be sybil attacked (voting requires signing a bitcoin address): https://vote.bitcoin.com/arguments/the-bitcoin-abc-client-and-big-block-fork-bitcoincash-is-a-better-roadmap-than-both-segwit-and-segwit2x
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In this post I examine why the UAHF is probably going to cause a short squeeze on Bitcoin this weekend leading into next week. You can make money on this, but it will be risky.
Why the $BCC Fork Will Cause a Short Squeeze in Bitcoin That Affects You
UAHF is a name given to something else.
https://cointelegraph.com/explained/uasf-vs-uahf-explained
Bitcoin is very strong today, $2600+-.
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I have just upvoted your all post. Please follow me https://steemit.com/@pirbhu
HODL.
Yes I think particularly when Segwit actually activates the price may break 3K.
Segwit is DOA. BitcoinCash is forking Aug 1 and will take majority hashpower with it.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@ancap47/bitcoin-hf-coin-already-has-started-trading-against-cny-on-viabtc-exchange
https://vote.bitcoin.com/arguments/the-bitcoin-abc-client-and-big-block-fork-bitcoincash-is-a-better-roadmap-than-both-segwit-and-segwit2x
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You just did it again. I have therefore flagged your last post which also featured the same bot like comment in your own responses!
Yes, agree. Bitcoin is up by 40% this week. Gold and Silver are in the 2-3% range. Here's an outlook how it performed compared to the rest.
https://steemit.com/main/@az-charts/recap-what-happened-this-week-in-the-markets-steem-price-bitcoin-price-analysis-in-all-markets
I think it is good that it came to BIP91. It may be the best solution for the future. As most of the coins are so dependent on BTC, it will also be the right way for us all I hope. Let´s hope the best and stay positive. Every Cryptocoin is only as valueable as the community behind it ;)
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Just be careful family! Coinbase is not allowing trades on July 31st
That shouldn't be necessary now. Obviously the market loves Segwit coming to Bitcoin. The innovation floodgates will be open. I think the last of the sub $3k bitcoins will be sold very, very soon.
Don't be fooled by bankster propaganda, actual bitcoin users overwhelmingly prefer bigger blocks - NOT segwit: https://vote.bitcoin.com/arguments/the-bitcoin-abc-client-and-big-block-fork-bitcoincash-is-a-better-roadmap-than-both-segwit-and-segwit2x
Bear in mind to vote in that poll you have to actually sign a bitcoin address you own. It can't be rigged by a sybil attack.
Regular Bitcoiners want big blocks? In what universe? Maybe Bitcoin users who know next to nothing about what makesit truly valuable and disruptive would go that route. Big blocks are the darlings of those who want cheap short term fees at any cost... like Ver, or Garzik (who has a Bitcoin analytics company), or corporations who want to control it, or governments who want to know the details of your every last transaction for you dossier and tax records. Big blocks is the opposite of a private & truly fungible Bitcoin.
Ancap47 where did you get those upside down ideas?
Yeah, you're right, who would want lower fees and faster transaction times? That's just crazy! /s
Not at the cost of centralization I don't. That's not bitcoin. You want fast transactions, use Visa.
How will it centralize anything? The centralization is currently the main Bitcoin client that has been taken over by govt/corp interests.
anarchy can not be capitalist
Wrong. Anarchy IS capitalism.
I wonder if they will scrap their plans now?
Just use Tether! Trade your money for Tether if you think bitcoin is going to crash and you want to buy some or sell your bitcoin for tether if you can't sell it on coinbase! Later you can sell you tether for bitcoin and cash that out.
What is tether?
Tether is crypto coin that is fixed to the dollar price, so 1 tether is always one dollar. Instead of cashing out you bitcoins to dollar you could simply buy tether and stay in the crypto world without taking care of fees and taxes.
You gotta take the risks of holding your coin at BItfinex to mess with Tether.
Bitfinex like many exchanages past & present have significant risks. Here's the latest interesting bit of reading about 'finex.
https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/meet-spoofy-how-a-single-entity-dominates-the-price-of-bitcoin-39c711d28eb4?source=linkShare-89b4ba3f2b62-1502043610
hmm right, what about steemdollar? You can keep them in your wallet and they kinda work the same way.
This is really good news, thanks for sharing it with us! I'm following you for a while now, and you explained this earlier this week, now it is "locked in", nice! But what about all the others, who are not supporting it? How does this work? Do they need to have more then 51% of the mining power to make changes? So we can be sure August 1 will be a good day, filled with mainstream media attention and even more money coming in the cryotospace??
Starting in a couple days, miners will start orphaning blocks that aren't signaling for the original version of segwit (bip141). Miners that intend to fork will still signal 141 to avoid being orphaned, but will switch to bitcoin-abc client on Aug 1 to start mining bigger blocks.
Big blockers have at least 50% hashrate and overwhelming economic support from actual bitcoin users: https://vote.bitcoin.com/arguments/the-bitcoin-abc-client-and-big-block-fork-bitcoincash-is-a-better-roadmap-than-both-segwit-and-segwit2x
Segwit coin will fail miserably if it loses 50% hashpower. Either way, make sure you have your coins in a wallet where you'll be able to access BOTH coins in the event of a split.
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Thanks for your explanation, and yes, my bitcoins are offline and secured! ;-)
Don't see where you are getting 50% of hashpower from. If that were true we would have had scaling already. We will see though.
Half of all miners are STILL signaling Bitcoin Unlimited and Classic. Why?
Also, why are both Bitcoin Unlimited and Classic spending time and money to develop clients that will fork off with Bitcoin-ABC on Aug 1?
Did you think Jihan and Roger just changed their minds about Segwit? What gave you that idea?
Where is that information from?
signaling? You can look on the blockchain.
Exactly and I don't see it.
BitcoinCash fork already trading at numbers that put it over a billion market cap - and it hasn't even forked yet!
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@ancap47/bitcoin-hf-coin-already-has-started-trading-against-cny-on-viabtc-exchange
Keep in mind, some larger exchanges may not give you both coins such as Coinbase.
According to Coinbase, they will not be allowing customers access to any Bitcoin Cash. So if you have 10 BTC on Coinbase, they will steal your 10 Bitcoin Cash.
Note that locking in BIP 91 is not the same thing as locking in Segwit. BIP 91 is an activation mechanism for Segwit, that functions like the UASF does. Locking in BIP 91 amounts to miners saying, "336 blocks from now, we all promise to ignore non-Segwit-signalling blocks, and build a chain of Segwit-supporting blocks."
Assuming that all the miners now supporting BIP 91 stick to the terms of that agreement, after a short, 336 block grace period, they will begin mining, and mining on top of, Segwit-signalling blocks only. This means that if there are still miners creating non-Segwit blocks, they will have limited hashpower, and consequently be building a much smaller chain than the Segwit-mining majority.
Because the network accepts the longest blockchain as the valid one, these non-Segwit miners will be building an invalid chain, giving them a significant financial incentive to switch to the Segwit chain. Because all blocks in this chain will be signalling for Segwit, the next 2016-block signalling period for Segwit itself should reach the needed 95% signalling threshold required for activation. Then, after another grace period, Segwit itself should activate, and will be usable on the network.
This all assumes that these miners do what they've comitted to do. If they break their word at some point, the situation sort of explodes in complexity, and a lot of what I've written above becomes invalid.
To speak more directly to your question, the miners who do NOT support Segwit, as noted above, will be mining a minority chain, and subject to having their blocks rejected by the majority of the hashpower.
If miners and users prefer a chain without Segwit (and presumably bigger blocks) they will likely hard fork themselves away from the majority consensus rules, creating an altcoin. This prevents a lot of potential harmful interference between the two chains. Currently, this hard fork effort is known as BitcoinCash, and uses client software BitcoinABC.
Note that the "success" or "failure" of a lot of these initiatives, whether they be activation mechanisms, technologies, concensus rules, or altcoins, are subject to the support of both miners and users. I mention this because we don't have a clear idea of where miner and user support really lands on a lot of these proposals. We know what they're saying, yes, but we don't know if they are being genuine in signalling their support, or if they'll change their minds.
It's completely possible, for example, for users to support Segwit2x long enough to activate Segwit, and then not follow a 2 MB hard fork. It's also possible for a fork of the Bitcoin software to start out with overwhelming miner support, and for that support to migrate away from that chain if there is insufficient use of that coin to maintain the value of that coin (and thus, profitable mining).
There have been a couple of attempts (1 & 2) at Sybil-resistant straw polls. Thus far, both polls reflect the biases of the faction that created them (among other biasing issues), making them minimally effective as real gauges of opinion. I'm not aware of any good indicators, but there are ideologues on either side who exhibit (I'll say this diplomatically) misleading optimism and confidence about how things "will" work out. I advise you to interpret such claims with caution, even when they are represented as fact, and to do your own research, using a variety of sources and opinions.
@grnt0352 thanks for your explanation! This makes a lot of my questinsore so clearly answered!
August 2, "The day of the oversold Lambos"
haha, nice one!
As I understand it those people won't get excluded anyway. It is not a hard fork. If someone is completely against it they can fork off their own chain but it won't be bitcoin.
Big Blockers are forking off on Aug 1. If they take a significant amount of hashpower with them, they WILL be bitcoin since they will be the longest chain.
I very much doubt that since the majority of hashpower is behind the Segwit 2 x whether you like it or not. People are free to fork off if they want but it is basically irrelevant - if they had the kind of support that they need then we would have had scaling a long time ago.
Signaling NYA and actually supporting it are two very different things. If all these miners really supported segwit, why didn't they signal all those months up to NYA? Why are they STILL signaling Bitcoin Unlimited and Classic? Why are node coints going up for both? Why are both BU and Classic both spending time and money developing clients to fork off with Bitcoin-ABC on Aug 1st?
Did you really think they just changed their minds about Segwit? Their Chief Scientist just did a talk about how Segwit is bad for the network. No one has refuted his points.
So far I have seen no hard data to back up what you say.
Everything I said you can look up on the blockchain or in forums.
Cool!
Yeah Babe. i knew it. Hold Hold Hold Game..
Hard Fork to bigger blocks is happening on Aug 1st without Segwit (see bitcoincash.org). If you haven't heard about it over all the propaganda, you can see that the majority of actual bitcoin users support the fork to bigger blocks over segwit: https://vote.bitcoin.com/arguments/the-bitcoin-abc-client-and-big-block-fork-bitcoincash-is-a-better-roadmap-than-both-segwit-and-segwit2x
Make sure you have your coins in a wallet that gives you BOTH coins in the case of a chain split. Bigger blocks will likely take 50% or more of hashpower making segwit coin worthless.
3325 BTC of support is meaningless though. Further it doesn't matter how much BTC people hold anyway - what matters is the hashrate supporting it.
A couple of points, to expand on the thoughts in this thread.
Short term profit isn't the only thing that drives the behavior of miners. Ideology, long term gain, political power, externalities, etc. all play a role. I want to emphasize that this meme, "hashpower is the only really important thing," is probably oversimplifying a very complex . If heuristics like that were true enough to act on, we could throw out the entire canon of behavioral econ.
Early trading on ViaBTC for the BitcoinCash fork puts it at over a billion dollar marketcap, and the fork hasn't even happened yet:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@ancap47/bitcoin-hf-coin-already-has-started-trading-against-cny-on-viabtc-exchange
Great points. It is more complex but as you point out that poll is not really evidence. Also I think whether we like it or not most of the mining power is quite centralised and those who have a say have already voted with their hashing power.
It's a poll - they never include everyone. Its called a representative sample.
Can you point to a better one that also can't be sybil attacked?
It's irrelevant. The hash rate is all that matters.
yep, and there will be hashpower for big block fork.
I don't see it but who knows for sure. We will just have to wait.
Yes. :)
This very good news indeed , i can only hope that this the solution to all the fee market issues and use cases that were mad obsolete or unprofitable by the big fees become possible
Just imagine the boost it will give bitcoin , if micropayments , like the ones for game items or similar applications become feasible again
I hope this is just the beggining and more changes are made so bitcoin can scale even more
Micropayments with segwit are a no-go until Lightning Network is done and that is pure speculation at this point. Big Blockers fork off on Aug 1 and will likely take at least 50% hashpower with them. Right now, actual bitcoin users are overwhelmingly in favor of big blocks over segwit: https://vote.bitcoin.com/arguments/the-bitcoin-abc-client-and-big-block-fork-bitcoincash-is-a-better-roadmap-than-both-segwit-and-segwit2x
With larger blocks micropayments could perfectly fit in the blocks and be feasible , Satoshi conceived this as one of the uses of the network , right built-in , without the need for side-chains and thirdparty solution
All those things can be achieved on-chain.
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And here's how the SegWit2x schedule looks like:)
Bitcoin will fork to bigger blocks on Aug 1 and make that chain pretty irrelevant.
Yeah, because panic sell and 50% price drop is what every big btc holder wants. Not gonna happen, sorry.
Thanks!
This HardFork scare was to shake off the short term investors :)
Well it wasn't a hard fork. The hard fork is yet to come but I suspect that will be less problematic than expected too.
So there IS still going to be a hard fork, but just not for a few more months?
There wasn't a hard fork but yes as part of Segwit 2x and the NYA there will be a hard fork.
There is no longer any need for a hard fork.
There is always a need for a hard fork, it just takes time.
Need is a subjective word. Even with segwit the blocks will eventually become full again.
So basically the doubling of the the block size will inevitably create a hard fork?
It's all noise. Fear and greed and nothing new under the sun...except Bitcoin ;)
bull run here we come!
I hope it trickles down into the rest of the alt coins.
I think it will.
Can you explain how this will affect people who use bitfinex and coinbase? coinbase has said they won't adopt a hard fork.
Coinbase won't acknowledge the hardfork to bigger blocks on Aug 1. Which means you better get any coins out of there if you have them there.
I moved my Bitcoin off Coinbase yesterday to a paper wallet. Maybe that is the safest move? I don't know, but I didn't like seeing the big warning banner on my account :(
This isn't a hard fork. In the event of a hard fork ask them.
Segwit2x has a hard fork to 2MB blocks in Nov...I think that is what he is referring to. There is also a hard fork to unlimited blocks on Aug 1 (https://www.bitcoincash.org/) that will cause a chain split.
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thanks for your great sources and information, also i'm a big fan of your layout of your posts, might copy some layout techniques ;)
Thanks!
I m 100% sure it will Dip to 1800$ again - Who agree ?
Any reason for that or are you just psychic?
what's your reasoning? Not saying I disagree.
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This post is super helpful right now.
Keep up the great work!
SteemON!
You can check it out here here if you like.
Thank you.
Grateful to help and support such quality and an honor to be appreciated.
Wow thanks for the post!
I was hoping someone would post RIGHT NOW as bitcoin was over 2,800. Its now 2,600 something.....
Super volatile, even more so than usual....
While this post is very helpful not sure if I still feel clear as to whats gonna happen. Still feels like a big drop is in order soon.....So selling this high seems wise and waiting to re buy in.....
Im no expert for sure. Anyways thanks for posting.
The volatility will only go down when the market gets to a big enough size. Expect it to continue with the same rises and falls. The closer it gets to that ATH again, the more dips we will see as people get jittery and take profits. I think there is a strong possibility of breaking the 3K once and for all soon (at least until we get to the hard fork).
So you still think going up to 3k BEFORE the hard fork is possible? Seems like there would be so many people thrilled to be able to sell this high before the hard fork hits.....Though you are quite more experienced and knowledgeable than I and that is why I am asking the questions!
Thanks for your valuable time!
Well there is no way to be 100% certain but I definitely think it is possible.
Of course~
I appreciate your integrity, honesty and confidence!
When I read this all I can think about is faster transaction and less blocks confirmation 😁 but I hope the fees will be cheaper than .0004 or .00075
We will have to see. Obviously if use also increases it might cancel out the effect.
Nice!, so we can expect high prices from now on :)
That is the hope but you never know exactly what the markets will do.
Thank you for the news, glad I am following you. Upvoted and Resteemed
Thank you!
This was an awesome article ! I was curious why Bitcoin jumped before any news of BIP91 and SegWit2x but thanks for explaining !
It jumped because people thought that the BIP 91 would activate since it had such high support in the preceding 24 hours.
Oh well, here we go again... Lambos are going to be more ordinary than Volkwagens...
That would be great but I don't think that will happen:)
Bitcoin goes to 500 000 USD
1000000000000! No, 1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000! lolz
That would be great. I don't think it's going to happen in the near future though.
Love the detailed article here. will be following for future inside bitcoin news.
Thanks.
And how should people expect the Steem Price to be affected by this???? @thecryptofiend I'm more interested in that side effect than BTC itself... Anyone?? Bueller??
Did you read the post? Altcoins generally go up in line with bitcoin - there are no guarantees though.
yes I did read it, but I'm new to crypto and wonder if there are any other factors at play for each currency or if the social media platform makes STEEM less volatile or if it is like a candy currency to most and only bloggers treat it like income, the rest just manipulate through trading and speculation. But the part about no guarantees is what I was getting at. I'm a total nube, so everything helps. Plus I am thinking about actually putting money in, instead of accumulating lunch money on here as an investment and really only wondered about Steem and how all this works. Thanks for the clarifications :)
That's the big problem though. Most of the time altcoins follow bitcoin but sometimes they don't!
Finger Crossed $4000 is on the way :D
Might have to wait until the actual activation in a few weeks.
Im loving the confidence in the market today. Bitcoin will definitly succeed with the current changes. The only way is up from now on:)
Well it can always go down too. Nothing goes straight up all the time.
Thanks for sharing this post@thecryptofiend
I think there will be wonderful opportunities for trading in the next few months.
i vote&follow you brother @ rameshkumar
Interesting. Thanks for sharing.
You're welcome!
take the calm, 2 days after sewgit dont send or recibe BTC
Not sure I understand - if BIP 91 has passed why would there be an issue?
interesting question i say this for everybody talks about 1 august ..
Straight to 5k!
Probably not - we will still have the ups and downs but I think it will break the 3K threshold conclusively before the next crisis (HF) arises.
Straight to 7k please!!
whatever whoever says... it's good to not have danger of split for this couple months more. i understand the side that wants keep bitcoin private/decentralized/out of big corps etc. but i think it might be hard at the moment as its driving the whole market and it cannot be that anon crypto currency, just get another one, dont stress over it, let it build your assets of really 'crypto' cryptos.
So if I'm reading this correctly, we should buy in now and ride the price up for the next two months. In which case, the price will go down a bit due to the doubling of the block size and hard fork. Let the price drop for a bit, then buy in again once it starts going back up.
No this is not investment advice. I can't predict with 100% accuracy what the market will do.
How is a strong possible hard fork good news I really don't understand that?
I think you misunderstand. The hard fork will be in a few months. If the same people who supported this support that (which they have agreed to do) it will pass with more than 80% support.
This is amazing
But some traders says that Bitcoin Price will drop. And it will be the worst ever... :(
Is it true?
Or what you think?
I haven't heard that.
Is it not possible for everyone to mass change their version back to non-BIP91 prior to July 29 and have it fail?
Why would they do that - they would basically destroy their own business (i.e. mining)? It would make absolutely zero sense and it is not going to happen. You may as well ask if they would just shut their mining farms and pools down.
Wouldn't it just force the creation of a new coin?
Yes and that new coin would not be bitcoin. Further it would be highly susceptible to 51% attacks.
Ok, I was just curious. If there are enough people willing to work together on a "new BitCoin", call it BitCoin Classic for argument's sake, it could be possible that this new growth gets nerfed.
I personally don't see why a group of BitCoin-ers would do this, but with the amount of scrutiny around the whole SegWit (2x) push, I wouldn't be completely shocked if something unexpected happens on or before 7/29.
I'm a very skeptical person to begin with, so all of the rumblings around BTC for the past several months have got me a bit on edge :)
Thanks for the responses!
Well some people have threatened to do that before. In some ways you could consider that existing altcoins like Litecoin are exactly that.
thank you for sharing this with us,and i think，it's cool.
That's a relief.
bitcoins soaring high.... even with all the news and speculations....but we still need to watch us.... theres more see...: lets just wait until then...
Yes people may be waiting until Segwit itself activates which will take a couple of weeks.
nice information...
This headline has so many acronyms. Its like it works for the government.
:)
This is truly excellent news for the price of Bitcoin! Finally it seems that common sense has prevailed.
I've taken a look at BTC/USD from a technical analysis point of view on my blog and as price is starting to discount the risk of a split, things are looking GREAT!
Yes. I think the true rise might come when Segwit actually activates though as some people are ultra cautious.
The ultra cautious people at the end isn't the big, smart money.
Ever heard of the saying 'buy the rumour, sell the fact'? This is because markets are always looking forward and the rumour has already been priced in as fact before the news hits.
Your trading advantage comes if you think that the fact they're pricing in wont happen. In this case, bitcoin dropped so hard because markets priced in the chance of a split. This of course now looks like not happening and before the news has even come out, price is back up to where it was before.
Get in early and manage your risk appropriately :)
Very cool!
Love it! Great news. Thanks for updates.