I didn't plan to post about $HIVE and the market in general, but the latest events deserve a word I believe.
To cut a long story short, this is what I said yesterday, in my technical analysis:
The daily chart shows clearly price swept the low of the candle marked on my chart and the next obvious liquidity pool is at the relative equal lows, which lay within the daily order block (OB D), which is meant to defend price. It's a crucial level that should hold as otherwise things could get ugly, we could revisit the $0.15 area, or even lower. $HIVE Technical Analysis - 04.08.2024
Unfortunately, today 💩 hit the fan and the worst happened.
NIKKEI started the day on the wrong foot, started dropping and registered a 12% drop in 8 hours.
NIKKEI is not the focus on my analysis, but it worth to mention, that unfortunately, today NIKKEI dropped below the yearly open and cancelled all the yearly gain in less that 4 weeks. There has been signs as you can see and the inevitable happened today.
Unfortunately, as I mentioned yesterday, these events have a huge impact on most of the markets. Major stocks dropped 10 - 12% and risk assets like crypto were impacted as well.
On the daily chart, $HIVE swept the two lows I mentioned as relative equal lows and swept $0.15 as well. This chart is a bit messy, as I wanted to show where the $0.15 level is coming from, but bear with me as the next chart is more clear.
At the time of writing, on a daily scale, price bounced off a bullish fair value gap (FVG), which is defending price at the moment, but if that FVG will not hold, things can get really ugly for $HIVE.
This is the left side of the chart and as you can see, that bullish FVG, marked with green, is the last one to defend price. If that is lost, below we only have low resistance liquidity. Could we revisit those levels at $0.1? Who knows? Everything is possible. The chart clearly shows, but for those who are not familiar with reading candle charts, we're at the February 2021 levels with $HIVE.
On a more granular scale, the h4 chart is not more promising either, if you want to see a sharp upside move. The current candle closes in 3 hours and right now it looks like a bearish one. There's a huge bearish FVG (marked with red) above, which is capping the market right now. For bullish continuation, price needs to close above the FVG, invert it and also close above the orange line at $0.1818, which is the bullish order bloc (OB) right now. To give you an idea, when it's going to happen, that would be a 21% move to the upside, which most likely won't happen in a day, unless someone with deep pockets throws in a big order. I'd like to be proven wrong here as we've seen crazy wicks in the past and this is the time to buy or at least DCA in, but time will tell. If not, we're going to climb up gradually.
On the hourly, things look a bit better, but we're far from being out of the woods. The current candle is bullish right now, but at the time of writing, there are still 50 minutes to the candle close, price is above NY open, but we have ISM Services PMI news in 50 minutes, which again, can move the market in both directions. At this point, a sweep of the current low at $0.1467 is still possible.
$BTC is not looking better either. The CME gap was fulled and price dropped like a stone during Asia and London. Price seems heavy at the moment and on the h12 chart, the sweep of low of day (LOD) seems very likely. News can work as catalyst. If LOD is lost, a sweep of $48300 is possible. Below that level we have two bullish FVGs, that should defend price, but $44k is also in the cards. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's better to be prepared because if that happens, alts will be murdered.
UPDATE: while I've been writing my post, the hourly candle became bigger, which means price is seeking liquidity higher. Let's see if it can close as a bullish engulfing candle. But again, watch out for the news in about 18 minutes and most importantly, stay safe!
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
If you're a newbie, you may want to check out these guides:
- Communities Explained - Newbie Guide
- Cross Posting And Reposting Explained, Using PeakD
- Hive Is Not For Me
- How To Pump Your Reputation Fast - Newbie Guide
- Tips And Tricks & Useful Hive Tools For Newbies
- More Useful Tools On Hive - Newbie Guide
- Community List And Why It Is Important To Post In The Right Community
- Witnesses And Proposals Explained - Newbie Guide
- To Stake, Or Not To Stake - Newbie Guide
- Tags And Tagging - Newbie Guide
- Newbie Expectations And Reality
- About Dust Vote And Hive Reward Pool, by libertycrypto27
Tough day. Interesting to me how much crypto moves with other markets. So hard to find any assets that are not correlated to stocks these days.
Money flows in and out of the markets and risk assets, among which crypto as well, are highly affected. The main thing is to know how to ride these waves.
HBD is not correlated to stocks and is doing just fine.
!BBH
HBD is a different asset class.
@steven-patrick! @hirohurl likes your content! so I just sent 1 BBH to your account on behalf of @hirohurl. (1/5)
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Margin calls happen in markets and traders need to sell anything liquid. Common tale. Nothing is “safe” in the short term during these events, just gotta plan and have dry powder ready to take advantage.
I handle the ups and downs by staying calm and not reacting to them. Fortunately, I'm in a position where I don't need to sell anything, and I invested only what I can afford to lose.
Emotions have no place in trading, but obviously it's more difficult to keep them out of the equation.
That is a golden rule in trading. So congrats!
It’s tough for a lot of people, and that’s completely understandable. I definitely face challenges too, but I’ve learned how to manage them. But many parents weren’t financially savvy, and I promised myself I wouldn’t make the same mistakes.
So..... if hive drops like you say to 0.15, is that a good time to buy some using proper money?
The best strategy is to dollar cost average (DCA) in. Buy some now, keep some cash if it goes lower. Or buy now, if you're ok with the price. $HIVE was at $0.49 in March, so compare that with $0.16, where we are now.
I totally agree, making staggered purchases with the cash liquidity I had helped me a lot to buy with good averages.
Averaging is the only good strategy here, as you can't buy bottoms. I mean you can try, but your rate of success will be a disastrous one 🙂
Good decision Nitsu!!!
Hmm up amd down up and down, amazing how you keep track thanks for the info, I shall have a think!
You're welcome @grindle.
👍
I ageee, dollar cost averaging is only responsible plan. That says, I believe Hive is going under.23 cents soon so I’m holding some dry powder to buy closer to a dime. Hit I have plenty of Hive already so I don’t mind being wrong, I just think it’s obvious we are going to .12 cents or so based on past year chart and performance.
👍
👍
Indeed I did mean .13
As a person who doesn't really understand much when it comes to crypto, I really needed this in my life! It came as a quick explanation when my worries started to strengthen after seeing the latest drops in prices. So thank you!
After 6 and a half years? 😲 🙈
Ok, I'm glad it's helpful as that's the purpose of these posts and you're welcome :)
Yes! 🤦🏼♀️ My brain refuses to retain such information when it comes to numbers. It ended up quite damaged after graduating from a college of finances and economics where I had no satisfaction to study any of the school materials..
The truth is that you have chosen an excellent time to bring these analyses, thank you for bringing all this information because personally it helps me to make decisions with a good basis and as you may have noticed there are more people who have found it useful.
Thanks Nitsu, I'm glad to know it helps people as that's the goal here. I'm going to share weekly $HIVE analysis from now on, but also emergency updates, if something significant happens,like the NIKKEI 💩.
As long as activity continues, HIVE will continue to thrive. As long as the community doensn't panic sell, HIVE will continue to thrive. Blogging here since 2017, I've seen it dip below $0.10, but kept on blogging and earning. I even bought a bunch with USD. I've also experience over $2.00 HIVE and still kept on blogging and earning. I didn't sell out, but kept on building.
Things are not that simple, panic selling is not the only factor influencing price, but thanks for letting me know.
Coordinated effort? Conspiracy among holders?
Nah, it moved with the crappy crypto market to an exact degree. No conspiracy here: not regarding hive itself anyway. It’s clear we are going to .12 cents. We keep breaking down with the less than best crypto trend not falling along with Bitcoin past 18 months. We will be going lower than the .148 bottom early Monday morning. We need new users and they aren’t here. I plan on buying a lot if we hit a dime.
Looking at the past 12 months chart, seeing Bitcoin up 100% or so & Hive down 50% or so , it becomes clear what the trend is. At least for now.
In fact we are far lower then when Bitcoin bottomed in fall 2022 at 15K. Hive was .27 low back then. We got cut in half while while bitcoin went up more triple comparing Monday lows to 2022 lows.
I sold most my hive when we went to $3.00
bought it back for .50 cents. It was obvious pump that didn’t make much sense. In those situations just holding isn’t best bet. I turned 20K Hive into 33K (by tike I powered down I got it out at average price of $1.75.
I bought it all back for less. I agree on not panic selling, but planning a sell when up 2800% from year prior is just being smart. It was obvious not a price that made sense…
I got my dry powder test for .12 cents. I am earning daily and not worrying about price besides some side Hive I keep whitewater for testing but my HP I don’t worry about at all. Just doesn’t mean I don’t make moves based on wild outta wack moves.
Hey @erikah! I noticed you posted on the Leofinance community, thanks for providing great content related to finance and crypto
A few months ago we opened the user interface inleo.io to every community, this means that every kind of content can earn $LEO now, all you have to do is publish using the frontend INLEO and you will earn extra tokens
And for example, this vote would distribute some $LEO tokens to your content :D
Hopefully you try it out in one of your future posts! Remember every community and topic is game now for INLEO
I'm aware of that, but thank you for notifying me.
No problem! Have a great day
Thanks, you too :)
Thanks for the great content @erikah, it was much needed!
You're welcome @idiosyncratic1, I'm glad it helps.
If BTC costs $30k, what price will HIVE have? $0.05?
I don't do predictions, sorry. I trade the charts, so I can't help you with that.
I hate to say it, but $HIVE will drop below $0.10 next month. That could be a good entry point, and I'm seriously considering buying significant amounts if it does.
Well, time will tell. There are those lows there, that can act as a magnet for price. We shall see.
There is undoubtedly a point where massive buying occurs, marking a historical bottom. Those who can pinpoint this moment stand to make a fortune.
Well pinpointing is one thing, buying is another. Also, DCA in is a good method as well, especially that you can stake Hive and earn curation rewards. But again, it depends on each individual, financial resources and goals.
when i need sell my hive it is falling down, i must wait a few weeks now :D
Well, this is life 🙂 It's a shame to sell at this rate tbh as you lose a lot.
My take from June
https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@tobetada/crypto-analysis-or-are-we-still-in-the-bear-hive-15-cents
Very useful information @erikah,So far I haven't understood so much about crypto,but just saw about this graph in your post,Little by little I will learn about it,Hopefully I really understand more about this,Thank you very much @erikah for providing us with this wonderful information,Have a nice day 😊