After that, Russia hunkered down to await Ukraine's long-foretold summer counteroffensive, a campaign which (when the dust settled) didn't retake a lot of territory but killed almost exactly 80,000 Russian soldiers in 4 months (an average of 20,000 per month)...
Dear @patriamreminisci !
Amigo Rob, I estimate that the number of war casualties in Ukraine is in the hundreds of thousands.
I think there will be more Ukrainian casualties than Russian casualties.
Phase Three will be when China, the puppeteer which controls Russia and Iran, as well as Russia's North Korean benefactors, steps out of the shadows to make their move; possibly the long-predicted Taiwan invasion but I think the Philippines is more likely, simply because Taiwan is too obvious. Alternatively, China's target may be Japan, as @bossel pointed out in a recent article that commented on China's increasingly aggressive behavior in areas where they (in defiance of international treaties) have staked nonsensical territorial claims. But no matter where it is, the next move will be made by the Axis's puppeteer, China.
I don't think China can gain any benefit from attacking the Philippines!
What China wants is to establish hegemony in the Pacific.
So, China will first attempt to conquer Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula!
China's naval power is still weaker than Japan's.
I'd normally be inclined to agree, except for one thing. Ukraine has not yet done a major mobilization, and they have 13 active brigades currently in service. If they've lost that many, when who is left to fight? I remind you that their army was never larger than about 700,000 or so. Their civilian casualties have been likely in the millions, and I am sure their military losses have been more than they've admitted, but the fact that they are still able to fight suggests that it is less than what Russia says.
They would. It would give them easy access through what they call the "First Island Chain" and into the South Pacific. Plus it would give them something they've been questing after for more than a century and a half: a southern buffer zone. Taiwan's only value to them is psychological. It's possible that I'm wrong, or it's possible that they care more about the psychological value of Taiwan. But if their goal is "Hegemony in the South Pacific" as you say, then the Philippines would be a more beneficial target for them. For one thing, Japan (which, as you say, is still stronger on the sea than China is) would be less likely to intervene on behalf of the Philippines than on behalf of Taiwan. And America? Well, yes, the Philippines has security guarantees from the US, but ask the Georgians, the Tibetans, the Kurds or (most recently) the Ukrainians what a US guarantee is worth. 🙄