Amigo Rob, I estimate that the number of war casualties in Ukraine is in the hundreds of thousands.
I'd normally be inclined to agree, except for one thing. Ukraine has not yet done a major mobilization, and they have 13 active brigades currently in service. If they've lost that many, when who is left to fight? I remind you that their army was never larger than about 700,000 or so. Their civilian casualties have been likely in the millions, and I am sure their military losses have been more than they've admitted, but the fact that they are still able to fight suggests that it is less than what Russia says.
I don't think China can gain any benefit from attacking the Philippines!
They would. It would give them easy access through what they call the "First Island Chain" and into the South Pacific. Plus it would give them something they've been questing after for more than a century and a half: a southern buffer zone. Taiwan's only value to them is psychological. It's possible that I'm wrong, or it's possible that they care more about the psychological value of Taiwan. But if their goal is "Hegemony in the South Pacific" as you say, then the Philippines would be a more beneficial target for them. For one thing, Japan (which, as you say, is still stronger on the sea than China is) would be less likely to intervene on behalf of the Philippines than on behalf of Taiwan. And America? Well, yes, the Philippines has security guarantees from the US, but ask the Georgians, the Tibetans, the Kurds or (most recently) the Ukrainians what a US guarantee is worth. 🙄