On Saturday, October 7, 2023, the 71st birthday of Russian President Vladimir Voldemortovich Putana, the Palestinian militant group Hamas gave him a birthday gift: a distraction for the West, to take attention off of Putin's floundering attempts to conquer their older and more civilized Western neighbor, Kyiv. Hamas launched the largest single-day assault the nation of Israel has faced since the Yom-Kippur War of 1972-73 (Ogao).
What does this have to do with a blog that has always focused on China and has recently expanded to include the Russian genocide in Ukraine?
I'm glad you asked.
The Diversion Russia Needed
As we mark day 600 of Vladimir Putin's "3 day mission" into Ukraine, there's no avoiding the fact that Russia's attempt to de-Ukrainize Ukraine is going badly for them, no matter how much propaganda is fed to the world to try and make it appear like the Kremlin is winning. I'm not denying that Ukraine is capable of some propagandizing in their own right, but even if you take Ukraine's statistics with a grain of salt, the fact that Russia has been reduced to going to a third-rate non-entity like North Korea with hat in hand as a supplicant begging for aid (Associated Press), tells all that anyone needs to know.
And in Russia's calculus, they would have won by now if the West wasn't focused on Ukraine. The truth is that all the West has ever given Ukraine is our spare kit and pocket change and Ukraine was devastating Russia's invasion force for four solid months before the West bothered to deliver their first supplies, but Russia doesn't grasp that. In their perception, the West has been devoting its "full resources" to supporting Ukraine's struggle against Russian imperialism. By this logic, if the West were to be suddenly distracted by another war, elsewhere, against an ally who gets more attention than Ukraine does, then Russia would have gained a free hand in Ukraine. And since Vladimir Putin's instrument of choice in the orchestra of American public opinion has always been the Far Right, he knew exactly where to hit to make them shout "forget Ukraine! We have more important battles to fight!"
Israel.
A Threesome In Plain Sight
"You'll notice that this theme of Russia calling Jews "Nazis" while sending Nazis to kill Jews, is kind of a favorite pastime of the Kremlin."
So, for some background here: Israel is surrounded on every side by Jihadic militant groups. To their Southwest is the Gaza-strip, controlled by (traditionally) Iran-backed Hamas. To the Northwest is Russian-puppet-state Syria, where all six thousand and forty four sides of the Syrian Civil War (some of which are backed by Russia, some by Iran, some by Turkey, some covertly and sheepishly backed in the dark by the CIA, some by the Kurds, some by the Saudis and some by what's left of ISIS) do actually manage to agree on one thing: they all hate Israel, even if their patrons don't. To their Northeast is Lebanon, where Iran-backed Hezbollah is the de facto government. And finally, to their East is Judea-Samaria (more commonly known as "the West Bank") where the Chinese-backed "Palestinian Liberation Organization" operates.
Notice the key players here: Russia, China, Iran. This triad should sound familiar. We've known about this alliance of revisionist autocrats for years. Sources in the West (Britzky, Brands, Cloud, Avdaliani, Kuo), the Jewish diaspora (Frantzman), the Islamic World (Al Mayadeen, Bangash), and India (WION) have all commented on its emergence. Even the three members themselves - Iran (Sinaee), Russia (Korybko), and China (Ren) - have admitted the formation of this alliance, which they themselves have dubbed "The Axis (Ridgwell)."
Earmark that, because we'll be back to it later.
Anyway, all of that was to say Israel is surrounded by Jihadi groups controlled by the Axis of Russia-China-Iran. So, when Russia needed someone to distract the West (especially America, which has traditionally been VERY Pro-Israel) to take pressure off of their Ukrainian front in the desperate hope of trying to pull off something they can pretend was victory, they turned to Hamas.
This happened right out in the open. Russia has been deepening their relationship with (and control of) Hamas since mid-2022 in an effort to keep pressure on Israel and try to blackmail them out of openly supporting Ukraine (Stradner & Hardie). This was set against a backdrop of Russia accusing Israel of having no regard for the lives of Palestinian civilians (while they themselves slaughtered Ukrainian civilians), and of backing what they called the "Neo-Nazi" regime, in Kyiv.
Yes, you read that right. A nation with documented ties to absolutely every Neo-Nazi cell on Earth, who sent a Neo-Nazi cell called "Task Force Rusich" on a mission to assassinate Ukraine's Jewish president (Rondeaux, Deer & Dalton), in what they called a "De-Nazification" mission, accused the world's only Jewish state, of backing Neo-Nazis, while aiding in a large scale terrorist assault on that state's civilian population and arming an organization whose goal is the genocide of the Jews (Coyne). This wasn't too long after Sir Gay Lapdog's Sergey Lavrov's foot-in-mouth moment of claiming Hitler was Jewish (Westendarp). You'll notice that this theme of Russia calling Jews "Nazis" while sending Nazis to kill Jews, is kind of a favorite pastime of the Kremlin.
Anyway, Rewind to the Spring of 2023. Russia was growing impatient with the slow pace of their offensive. The active Russian Army was not advancing on a single front and Wagner's snail-pace campaign in Bakhmut was yielding precious little (Bailey et al.), at the cost of more than a hundred thousand lives. It was at this moment that Russia first realized they needed to open up a second front to divert the West's attention. To this end, they invited Hamas's leadership for talks in Moscow. Russia hoped to keep this quiet, but Israel noticed (Khoury), and Hamas made a point to publicize it as much as possible (Farhat, Middle East Monitor Staff). At least, in the days leading up to them, Hamas made them highly public.
But after these talks were finished, Hamas got very quiet about what had been said. However, upon returning to their caves in Gaza, they made a point to arrange a visit to Tehran (i24 Staff), to meet with Russia's primary patron, the Ayatollah... whose drones were proving so effective at propping up Russia's desperate struggle against superior Ukrainian forces by taking out hardened targets like Ukrainian kindergartens and churches (De Luce).
After that, Russia hunkered down to await Ukraine's long-foretold summer counteroffensive, a campaign which (when the dust settled) didn't retake a lot of territory but killed almost exactly 80,000 Russian soldiers in 4 months (an average of 20,000 per month)...
...and destroyed more than $60 billion worth of Russian ammunition (as well as putting the Kerch Bridge in range of ATACM's, which Ukraine now has (Greenhall & Partridge)), putting Russia in an even more visibly vulnerable position than before.
Slava 'Ruse-Ya,' Eh?
"And when Israel's retaliation was to finally roll up their sleeves and say "we're done playing around," what was Putin's response? Well, he responded by saying Israelis were... you guessed it:"
During this time, Russia was working on what they no doubt believed was a clever ruse. Having already boasted of capturing some of the equipment the West gave to Ukraine, Russia now transferred this equipment to Hamas (Kolesnikova). The goal was to discredit Ukraine in the eyes of the West by tying them to a terrorist attack on a well-loved Western ally, and Hamas played the part well by claiming "Ukraine sold us these weapons."
This ruse became transparent when Putin publicly spoke up in favor of Hamas, and Hamas openly and publicly thanked Putin for help against Israeli... aggression.
Yes, you read it right. After targeting Israeli civilians in the largest single-day terrorist attack anywhere outside of Ukraine since 9-11, the attackers called Israel an "aggressor" for shooting back.
And when Israel's retaliation was to finally roll up their sleeves and say "we're done playing around," Iran (Al-Jazeera Staff), Russia (Wehner) and China (Sebastian) all three denounced Israel for having the audacity to fight back. Iran even threatened that there would be a response from "the Axis." And yes, they called it that again. So, we have an alliance of three revisionist dictators, who are determined to destroy everyone they consider an obstacle, ESPECIALLY Jews (first in Ukraine, then in Israel), calling themselves "The Axis." Where have I heard this before?
I digress. One of the most cynical moments in this united condemnation of Israel by The Axis was when Putin lambasted Benjamin Netenyahu's warning to Gazans to get out within 24 hours. He called this a war crime, saying 24 hours was not enough time to evacuate an area the size of Gaza.
And yet, that's 24 hours longer than this sonofabitch ever gave a God-damned single one of the Ukrainian civilian targets he has unapologetically opened fire on!
As a side note, when Israel ignored this laughably hypocritical condemnation and proceeded with a ground offensive to wipe out every remnant of Hamas once and for all, what was Putin's response? Well, the man who sent Neo-Nazis to "De-Nazify" Ukraine, beginning with an assassination attempt on its freely elected Jewish president, before arming those who echo the Nazi Party's calls for genocide of the Jews, responded by saying Israelis were... you guessed it: Nazis (Reuters).
So What Comes Next?
Well...
...World War Three isn't on the horizon. It's here.
The Axis is on the move.
Phase One was Russia's attack on Ukraine, supported by Iran (and, though they pretend to be neutral, by China (Aarup et. al.))
Phase Two was an attack on Israel by Hamas (backed by Russia and Iran), Syria (a Russian client-state) and Hezbollah (an Iranian proxy), with the likely threat of further action by Iran, now with the tacit blessing of China.
Phase Three will be when China, the puppeteer which controls Russia and Iran, as well as Russia's North Korean benefactors, steps out of the shadows to make their move; possibly the long-predicted Taiwan invasion but I think the Philippines is more likely, simply because Taiwan is too obvious. Alternatively, China's target may be Japan, as @bossel pointed out in a recent article that commented on China's increasingly aggressive behavior in areas where they (in defiance of international treaties) have staked nonsensical territorial claims. But no matter where it is, the next move will be made by the Axis's puppeteer, China.
This has been a long time in planning. Frankly, it would behoove many leaders in the West to read Unconditional Warfare and consider the possibility that deploying Covid-19 was an intentional preparatory step, or at least that its premature release forced the China-controlled Axis to step up their timetable.
Regardless, The next World War is already underway (has been for some time now, actually), and it's time for the world to choose who they side with. The Axis, or Civilization.
Because when this is over, only one of the two will exist.
Works Cited
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Al-Jazeera Staff. "Iran’s Khamenei demands Israel stop bombardment of Gaza." All-Jazeera. 17 Oct, 2023. Web. 17 Oct, 2023. "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/17/irans-khamenei-warns-israel-that-bombardment-of-gaza-could-bring-response
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De Luce, Dan. "Recovered debris offers ‘undeniable’ proof Russia is using Iran-made one-way drones in Ukraine, U.S. intel analysts say." NBC News. 4 Aug, 2023. Web. 17 Oct, 2023. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/recovered-debris-proof-russia-using-iran-made-shahed-drones-rcna98245
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And look at the two buddies meeting yesterday. Probably planning the next step
Which two? This Rogues' Gallery have all been slinking around in the shadows for conferences with each other recently, and North Korea's Kim has been right alongside.
Fatty Kim is just a little runner boy doing their dirty job 🤭
That's true, but he's moved a little bit up the totem pole recently ever since Russia had to go to him begging for help. It must have boosted his ego to be the celebrant instead of the supplicant for a change.
I think he's just the middle man,and the end seller is really Putin's one and only friend who is afraid of selling to him directly
I thought of that. The thing is that North Korea uses its own homemade weapons, and the ones they're selling to Russia are domestic brands. China's arms-sales to Russia are a little more shadowy. They sell "dual-use" materials, stuff that they can semi-credibly pretend was for civilian use.
They're involved though. China is the one who funds Russia's ability to buy NoKo's weapons, by buying Russian oil.
Dear @patriamreminisci !
Amigo Rob, I estimate that the number of war casualties in Ukraine is in the hundreds of thousands.
I think there will be more Ukrainian casualties than Russian casualties.
I don't think China can gain any benefit from attacking the Philippines!
What China wants is to establish hegemony in the Pacific.
So, China will first attempt to conquer Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula!
China's naval power is still weaker than Japan's.
I'd normally be inclined to agree, except for one thing. Ukraine has not yet done a major mobilization, and they have 13 active brigades currently in service. If they've lost that many, when who is left to fight? I remind you that their army was never larger than about 700,000 or so. Their civilian casualties have been likely in the millions, and I am sure their military losses have been more than they've admitted, but the fact that they are still able to fight suggests that it is less than what Russia says.
They would. It would give them easy access through what they call the "First Island Chain" and into the South Pacific. Plus it would give them something they've been questing after for more than a century and a half: a southern buffer zone. Taiwan's only value to them is psychological. It's possible that I'm wrong, or it's possible that they care more about the psychological value of Taiwan. But if their goal is "Hegemony in the South Pacific" as you say, then the Philippines would be a more beneficial target for them. For one thing, Japan (which, as you say, is still stronger on the sea than China is) would be less likely to intervene on behalf of the Philippines than on behalf of Taiwan. And America? Well, yes, the Philippines has security guarantees from the US, but ask the Georgians, the Tibetans, the Kurds or (most recently) the Ukrainians what a US guarantee is worth. 🙄