Cryptocurrency prices have taken a beating over the last couple of weeks but uptrends remain intact for now.
Let's put some context into what has been happening lately with the STEEM price.
We need to remember that the crypto markets are largely driven by the price and sentiment of Bitcoin and Bitcoin investors and traders. When money is moving in and out of cryptocurrencies, it usually flows through Bitcoin. When BTC has a sustained drop in price, most of the other tokens will follow. Likewise, when it is in a strong uptrend, it will carry most of the rest of the tokens with it.
A lot of money has flowed into the crypto market over the last few months, so it's not unusual to see profit-taking in a lot of the individual tokens and some outflows from the larger market. Volume is generally down across the entire space, so it's possible that this is just a seasonal trend as a lot of people cash out, take vacations, and enjoy the summer. As the old adage goes in the stock market, "Sell in May and go away." Since the prices began falling a little later in the crypto markets, maybe we can say:
Sell in June and come back "soon."
With that in mind, let's take a look at STEEM prices.
The STEEM-BTC price has taken a good beating since June 25th. There have been some wallet issues on Poloniex (see chart below) and even on Bittrex that may be contributing to some of its price woes. However, most of the price decline appears to be related to the larger market conditions and price action.
Nevertheless, the STEEM-BTC price remains in its long-term uptrend that began in March (blue line). Currently, that uptrend line rests between 32-33K satoshis, or 0.00032 - 0.00033 BTC (black line). We also see the downtrend line (red) that began on June 9th. As long as the price does not trade below that 33K satoshi line, it remains in an uptrend and our price outlook and trading decisions need to take that into consideration.
However, there are some negative indicators for prices.
First on this chart is the crossing over of the 20-day moving average below the 50-day moving average. This occurred three days ago - July 10th.
The MACD shows a fairly strong negative divergence in momentum with a zero-line crossover occurring on both signal lines over the past week and a half.
But volume may tell the story here. It is relatively low compared to recent price action that moved prices upward. The downward price action may be steep, but a lot of money may be sitting on the sidelines waiting things out. The downward trend could continue for some time before bigger players start to rejoin the table.
The STEEM-U.S. Dollar price remains firmly in an uptrend with the uptrend line resting at ~$0.50. We can see the strong downtrend line from the highs near $2.80 on June 9th and the light volume that has accompanied it.
Keep an eye on the Dollar prices from here, as it appears that a double-bottom may have occurred two days ago at around $0.98. We will need further confirmation of this in order to see if it was in fact a trend reversal. The current price is ~$1.15.
Where can prices go from here?
Keeping in mind the unpredictability of the cryptocurrency markets and the strong ties/correlations to Bitcoin, we can identify some technical levels to watch.
To the downside, the STEEM-BTC price can drop between 39-43K satoshis, where some fairly strong support had been built during trading in May and early June (black line). If the STEEM-BTC price falls through that target, the next stop would likely be the uptrend line (blue), which currently sits at 32-33K satoshis and also happens to be the next line of support. So, unless the market takes another dive right now, the uptrend line would be the last hope to remain in the trend that began in March.
To the upside, the STEEM-BTC price could trade all the way back to ~64K satoshis before hitting strong resistance. Over the last two days, it has traded between 47K and 57K satoshis. There may be opportunities to successfully trade here, if the market continues to move sideways for some time. If the price can break through 64K and the recent downtrend line (red), then a run back up to the 70s is possible. But with the current indicators pointing downward, I wouldn't expect a large move up - unless it is accompanied by a large increase in volume over a 24-hour+ period.
And, of course, the price could simply trade sideways on low volume from here.
As for the STEEM-U.S. Dollar price, I would look for a move above $1.40 to confirm that the uptrend has resumed, but I'd feel much better if it can cross $1.50 and trade above that level. If it moves back below ~$0.98, then we could see prices fall to $0.70 - $0.80.
If you're trading, always remember:
Never invest or trade what you cannot afford to lose and put tight stop-losses in when prices creep lower towards the support lines.
As always, if you have any critiques or comments about my non-professional analysis, please let me know. If you decide to trade this market, good luck to you!
Disclaimer: I am not a professional adviser and this info should not be used for trading. These are only my interpretations and opinions, and while I would be flattered that you think so highly of my fairly basic analysis, it would not be prudent to use this for transacting/trading with real money.
*Charts are from Poloniex and Coinmarketcap.com. Analysis is current as of approximately 2:30pm EST, July 13, 2017.
Follow me: @ats-david
Great inside and great post. I would not be worried so much where the price is going right now since it was a decent correction from ATH which is only creating some good entries and buying opportunities on those dips. We can definitely go lower from here but if you spread your disposable income for those dips then you can get great average price. That is a good strategy for those who want to invest in steem for long term. Personally I beleive we have a lot of upward potential not only with steem but other cryptos as well so the ones with great future potential will make some massive returns in the years to come. Buy the dips and HODL!
The last few months have been geat for the altcoin market. The prices of these cryptocurrencies went so high that almost everyone started to talk about it and this lets a lot of newbies into the crypto market.
Now that they do not see any profits, most of them are selling and running for shelter. And I feel that this price correction is necessary and I am glad this is happening.
The next few months, the price will settle and will increase eventually, slow but steady, slow but stronger than what it is right now.
Thanks for the post.
I think the markets are generally going to be quite sideways until we get definitive resolution of the Bitcoin situation post August 1st.
Now this is not a good sign for us if this downtrend continues. I hope segwit2x success and bitcoin makes new ATH. All cryptos will gain volume after it and steem will be at $2 soon.
Some people say that Steem may soon be worth about 10$. I'm not sure if they say that because they do analysis or they just wish to get rich :D
I think it's the latter, but I guess we'll see.
Steem started falling when Polo's wallet was disabled - I think people were literally selling to convert to bitcoin because they could withdraw that.
Of course that then created a downward trend that the TA people have latched onto, and it's been downhill ever since.
Good luck!!
I think you just buy and hold for the long term....Every day we are in the red means we should be buying.
We are going to look back in 5 years and laugh at the thought of thinking the price of steem was only$1.15:)
It is good to see the technical analysis. I'm a fundamentalist but I do consider these types of analysis.
I sort of got lucky the other night went STEEM went below $1. There was almost a 1 to 1 ratio between SBD and STEEM so I did the trade on the internal market and then sat on the liquid STEEM figuring we would get a small recovery the next day. Then went it was about $1.36 i shot it to Bittrex and converted to BTC.
Another reason I feel there is some downward pressure for STEEM is that new users want to confirm that it is "Real" and will go through the process of cashing out some early rewards. That is kind of my thought on it.
That was some really clever way to making quick money. Good for you.
And yes you are correct, all the downward trend that we are seeing right now is because of newbies.
Most of them joined crypto market because all the media attention that Bitcoin got, and now after a few months when most of these newbies do not see any profits they sell and thus the downward trend.
I'm glad the that STEEM Dollar still exist because it gives me an extra tool to go in and out of. At one point there were talks of getting rid of the STEEM Dollar and just having STEEM
I am glad Steemit exists, it gives me hope that was missing for years.
That is good to hear. It is certainly another opportunity that I'm glad I found out about as well.
Most important key to Crypto investment is 'risk management'. The best tool for risk management are stop losses that auto sell when your token or coin falls below you risk tolerance level.
Live to trade another day.
Nothing good for social. In fact, the value of our votes goes down, the winnings drop, a tear also drops. Many despair. So let's wait.
And good vacation at all
Nice one - and this time not a technical analysis but a price analysis - useful. Keep them coming, i read them and try to understand 10%
You should try to understand 100%. You might get better results that way. If you only shoot for 10%, then that's the most you'll ever be able to understand.
#math
thanks for the analysis, good stuff. You've got a way of giving lots of details while keeping it comprehensible and not overwhelming.
Definitely looks to me like the price will be a little stressful to watch for the next few weeks... I'm gonna try and not pay attention to it, and try to just focus on making good posts.
Not paying attention to the short-term fluctuations is the best idea!
Goood anaylsis. It is good to get this kind of stuff out there. There are many participants here that have no understanding of markets and may panic unnecessarily at the volatility in price. We need more of this
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on the steem price, it is enlightening. I noticed after the 10th of June prices start falling, first BTC...then Steem. Not long ago Steem price droped below Steem-dollar, of course it didn't last much time, market soon corrected it (my bad). Still learning...
Crystal clear upvoted and resteemed :-)
Price of Steem solo depends on Bitcoin's position on the market. This why Steemit needs worldwide adoption and high mainstream marketing. I mean, the devs surely have enough money to promote it on almost every social media / website out there. Reddit and ocassional Facebook marketing is simply not enough. Steem and Steemit need more organic marketing, maybe forming a marketing team designed to promote it.
Steem is taking a sive mainly due to the rest of the cryptos. Sadly it goes hand to hand with the big fish and hopefully everything will recover soon.
I think now is the best time to chip in for some sp as the prices are really low.
Cheers for the post and much love from me friend :)
Goldie
I was never really a believer in the MAs to be honest.
so good info in here thanks
This comment has received a 0.11 % upvote from @booster thanks to: @hamzaoui.
Great breakdown... buying more steem at the dips everytime 🙌🏼
I wouldn't mind seeing one more drop to the .00037 area so I can load up
Thanks for sharing your thoughts!
May I get your expert opinion on the bitcoin and steem price that is happening today. For me and my readers. Hope to see you in our conversation.
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@yoda1917/steem-usd-crashes-through-the-ground-to-usd0-96563252-here-is-why-and-here-is-what-to-do
@ats-david - Thank you for this involved analysis. You have very correctly pointed out that the volume indicates that most of the money may be sitting on the sidelines, waiting.
Perhaps the sentiment in the market may continue till the August 1 speculation about BTC hardfork etc. I am new to this crypto world but do understand basic uptrends and MACDs etc. Thanks for all the hard work in putting this information together for us. Upvoted
At my end, I continued my observations of nuggets of wisdom from wildlife and wrote a blog 'How to Chill - 🐵 Monkey Style' with my wildlife photos and musings with a twist and a fun blog on Snoozing parrot economists. I request you to take a look at it when you have time. Your comments, as always, would be an encouragement and incentive for me to make better blogs. Thanks
Very good technical analysis and I agree with most of your points. The really low trading volume has worried me, and I agree that in some part that is due to money waiting on the sidelines, but I also feel more and more users are holding their Steem in Steem Power, which could drag down the volume. I also think the trouble on the exchanges have contributed to this. Really good post.
Quite informative post indeed. Crypto market is unpredictable, but close observations in the market may give us indeed a good picture.
And I just put the order for the maximum price and wait. It will work sometime :)
thanx for this nice post !
STeemOn
All i can say Marty
what if you buy so much steem and price goes very low, devs get desperate and say that this is time to quit? :(
It's always a possibility.
Thank you for sharing such important information. People who were worried about the downward trend and were asking questions why bitcoins and all other alt coins were going down.
This post answered couple of mine concerned questions, thanks, keep up good work, looking further to your new posts
What a great post but I think sttemit is the currency of the future until they should create debit and credit cards that have visa support and a serious mastercard would not they?
Tokencard. They are ethereum based debit cards. There are other companies who do bitcoin. TenX wants to combine them all but its yet to be seen.
Let's hope someday they get deacruado because it really would be a great project a macro credit card that works with the strongest cryptomonedas of the market
I'm a bit of a newbie in trading, but could we simple say that when Steem stays between the down trend line and the horizontal with the option to the uptrend line and this goes all the way to the crossing points of these lines, we really dont know what Steem will do? either breakout or drop below?
Well, we never know what it will do. We can only identify what it has done and what prices could do in the future based on previous trends, support and resistance lines/targets, and many other factors.
Good answer :)
Great analysis. Helps us know a little bit what to expect. Hopefuly the prices will go up soon.
Analysis... We have to do them one way or the other. Everything makes sense but we can never predict the future. A lot of if and when. And then some odds calculation. It's true that by applying this know how a lot of traders will probably more right than wrong, thus making a profit.
But as stated... we can't predict the future. Hopefully Steem will set a nice log up trend.
Thanks for your insights.
thanks for what you are doing, upvoted and followed
let the sellers sell and the market will regain composure. just relax guys
Really interesting article friend! Thanks for sharing!
Great insight into cryptocurrency, no need to panic i think, its like every other currencies, they all have their ups/rise n downs/fall...
Thank you for this details analysis into the down trend over the past month, we are holding firm until the markets rise again
What do you think is the better idea at the moment, converting altcoins to steem or turning your steem into altcoins?
I guess that depends on how much you believe in Steem/Steemit's future and whether or not there will be future pumps.
I am not a long-term buyer right now because of my sentiment about the current system and the continual snail's pace of development.
Thanks for this analysis. Following for more
Great job . Great analysis.
Any movement on the advertising idea?
No, unfortunately. It was DOA. No plans for anything like that, at least not from STINC.
That is indeed unfortunate. I was hoping your post would generate enough clout to at least get the conversation started.
If that model was implemented steem could easily make it into top 5 market cap.
Any crypto with an actual business/revenue/dividend model would be light years ahead of the common hype-speculation route. The ones that can figure that out will be the ones that attract larger "mainstream" investors.
Agreed.
Great article thank you. Cheers mike
great time to buy
reading yr "non professional analysis", I have to say that you are better than many professional called. I do not care for the moment about the price, I think that the most important is to spread Steemit worldwide, not just for earning, but to have a good competitor in the area of social media.
Keep going , good job
Good analysis, also i am not worried... I trust that the price will recover nicely in the future, steemit is growing fast and steem should get stronger... This crypto crash should end soon, my guess is august is going to be a green month and so the next months...