Perhaps you've gotten wind of the fallout between @dan and @ned not too long ago, and it seems like the two are no longer on friendly terms. Dan Larimer has excercised some stern criticism towards Steemit and it's CEO @ned, and has said that he would create a better version of Steemit on EOS in direct competition with the original.
THE FALLOUT
I kind of missed this as it happened, but I came across a post by @eosgo which gave some pretty surprising details of things that have been said with regards to the situation. I will use some of the screencaps from their post, because a lot of what Dan Larimer said about the situation was said in Telegram. I won't pick sides or go into detail about the argument, because this post is mostly about the implications of a Steemit competitor on EOS.In short, the screencaps below should explain a lot of Dan Larimer's current line of thought with regards to Steemit:
Sorry about the screencap-spam! But I felt I shouldn't shorten it too much as to not distort his words.
A STEEMIT COMPETITOR ON EOS
Now it seems the idea of porting STEEM to EOS is over. At least in so far that it would be with Dan Larimer's assistance. It's clear that cooperation is not on the table at this moment. On the contrary: Dan Larimer is talking about STEEM's faults and says that he wants to build a Steemit competitor on EOS! I highly doubt we'll be able to move our STEEM Power over to that.
Maybe the STEEM devs will port STEEM to EOS themselves? After all, EOS being a public blockchain, it should be possible. But I don't think at all that this is likely to happen, and if it is likely to happen then it would likely be more of a fresh start than a continuation of the current status quo. I think it's more likely that STEEM will remain STEEM, and Steemit will remain Steemit, even with the emergence of competitors on platforms such as EOS.
THE FUTURE MAY BE BLEAK
There is of course the chance that the STEEM and Steemit devs themselves manage to improve the code to fix the many issues this platform has. But they better hurry up: EOS mainnet is set to go live this summer. And judging from the development that happened on Steem last year.. I can't say that I've noticed much of anything change except for the UI overhaul. It would require bit faster pace in order to stay ahead of a new competitor.
WHAT ABOUT MY STEEM POWER?
For us regular users, the question arrives: So what about my Steem Power? We're all powering up and locking our STEEM into SP that we cannot easily get out unless we wait many weeks. If a new competitor arrives and is succesful and steals the thunder away from Steemit, then it is very likely that the price of STEEM shall go down drastically due to lessened interest in STEEM and people moving to the competition.
There is good news too, though! Maybe you're feeling the FUD right now because of what I just wrote, but let me re-assure you somewhat. I do not believe a Steemit competitor on EOS would mean the instantanious failure of STEEM. After all, the blockchain is a decentralized blockchain. It will continue to exist for as long as there are witnesses running nodes. And since running a node is profitable, even with a lower price, the STEEM blockchain will continue to exist.
Secondly, although the 13 week SP lockdown period means you can't quickly cash out when the price drops, it also means nobody else can. This helps the price from falling too fast and prevents a sudden death.
There are more economic implications too. As more people leave the platform, it also means that less people are eating up the reward pool, leaving a bigger slice for everybody that remains. Though, this comes with a lowered STEEM price, so these two may very well cancel eachother out to some extent.
Lastly, STEEM has quite a headstart in terms of adoption. When the EOS competitor arrives, STEEM and Steemit will have been here for years building a community and userbase. Sure, it sounds super threatening to hear an EOS competitor of Steemit by Dan Larimer. BUT.... empty promises so far. How many times have we heard of projects creating a 'better Bitcoin', yet people don't care about altcoins and want the original. Surely if an EOS based Steemit competitor should arrive.... there will be a second, and a third, and a fourth. And perhaps there will be ten based on NEO as well. And ten based on Ethereum. And god knows how many others who will offer to create the fastest and most awesomest version of Steemit possible. It's all just words, and even when they deliver it remains to be seen if these newer Steemits will gain the same popularity as the original. Hell, maybe I could make my own Steemit too - doesn't mean anybody is going to use it yet, until they actually do.
But to be fair, this situation does concern me. Last year I started out on Steemit thinking this would never be sustainable, and I cashed out as much as I could. Slowly I converted into a real Steemian, and I stopped powering down and started to power up. Nowadays I am taking Steemit quite serious, and I am very fond of it and all that I've accomplished when it comes to my followers and earnings, relatively small as they may be. The thought of losing all of that work and having to start over from scratch is a scary thought.
I see some very good and enthusiastic people who are die-hard believers of STEEM, and I do worry about them. I hate to see people get hurt, and as my readers will know I frequently advise people to diversify. While it may be an impopular opinion to some, I feel I should repeat this here again: With uncertainty about the future, consider diversifying into some other crypto's.
I think the 50/50 SBD/STEEM split is a pretty good guideline. You can still power up 50%, but consider turning some of that SBD into Bitcoin or Ethereum. Those are pretty safe bets for the time being. Or, if you want to hedge against EOS outcompeting Steemit, maybe turn some SBD into EOS. By doing this, you have at least some of your earnings seperate from the STEEM-situation. Should Steemit collapse or disappear or whatever, you always have the other 50% that you turned into other crypto's with which you can start anew on another platform. And if EOS should prove to win, then you'll have those EOS tokens to buy your way into their version of Steemit.
I won't be changing my strategy, as I've been diversifying my SBD for quite some time already and I am willing to 'risk' my SP that is on Steemit. But if I had $100K worth of SP locked up, you can bet I'd be taking a lot of that out due to this uncertainty.
This post isn't meant to cause any FUD or cast judgement one way or another. I primarily wrote this to inform you of what's going on, and to hopefully help you make whatever decision is best for you!
>> To read the post by @eosgo containing the screencaps click here <<
My opinion about the future of the network STEEM is identical with yours.
Thanks so much for your reply and support ! :)
I've only been on Steem approximately a month and saw the post from the fallout between the guys, which caught me by surprise.
Yet, Excellent write up and I agree with this post as well.
Thanks for flagging. This reminds me of MySpace and Facebook.
So far what Dan has touched has turned to gold. From your post, if true, there is a clear and present danger to STEEMIT. Users will go where they can make the most $ and where the interface is the easiest to use.
I think there are some serious Steemit issues that aren't being addressed in a timely manner.
How about that whale that is supporting Haejin. It is within the rules, but there is something fishy going on. Haejin posts are not worth hundreds of dollars.
What about resolution of bots on Steemit? Marketing? Getting on more exchanges? What about tossing around ideas on making it easier for new users to get their content noticed?
Frankly I don't see a lot of improvement since I started and as I stated in a recent post, i've decided to initiate powering down. The first time I've ever done it (however I have not yet decided to withdraw my Steem).
Regardless, Dan or not, Steem should consider any competitor a threat and have a plan in place to counter and/or mitigate those threats.
Even before this post I think Steemit needed to address a lot of serious issues now before it's too late.
Thanks for sharing. voted and resteemed.
For me: My plan to to continue to use Steemit until something better shows up. At that point i'll do what everyone else does: tell their follower base to follow on the new platform.
Your thoughts aren't quite unlike my own! I'm not powering down per se, but that is also in part because my SP isn't that high yet.
And I do wish that the devs would indeed pay attention to fixing some of the issues. The current flag wars are bad, but I've seen them over and over in the past as well. And honestly, to me I don't really care one bit... the reward pool is being unfairly 'raped' daily by so many high level posters who, honestly, don't deserve that relative to what they put out. So when a bunch of them get into a fight... eh... whatever, that money was going to go to their kind anyway..
And it needs to be fixed, it should've been fixed and it's not healthy for long term sustainability.
On the other hand, I've been thinking that for the better part of a year and have been continuously proven wrong, and Steemit is doing better than ever despite me thinking this is unsustainable when I joined (I thought this due to exactly the same ridiculousy high earnings for crap posts).
Powering down is a step too far for me yet. I am still building my blog on Steemit, and need every bit of upvote power for my readers! But I do take out most of my SBD earnings to diversify. I feel this is the responsible thing to do. When in doubt, just do both and go 50/50. Works pretty well in crypto!
On the other hand, I've been thinking that for the better part of a year and have been continuously proven wrong, and Steemit is doing better than ever despite me thinking this is unsustainable when I joined (I thought this due to exactly the same ridiculousy high earnings for crap posts).
Do you mean "doing better" as in price? That could just be a bull market. It's hard not to lose $ in crypto if you invest in known brands that have a working product. I think it's dangerous to equate price with health of the platform.
So when a bunch of them get into a fight... eh... whatever, that money was going to go to their kind anyway..
I have sort of the same feeling, but I think we are all owners of steemit in a way and if we see something unfair or something that hurts the platform I think it should be called out.
I want Steemit to succeed but I also want to know issues are being heard and addressed. I don't see that.
Regardless, I'll work on a platform that gives me what I need. Right now, Steemit is the place and heck...if you are here and providing great content i'll be here to upvote and follow :)
Thanks again for flagging.
Yes, I mean better in price but also I think it grew in userbase.
And yes calling out abuse is fine, but it's a problem that this is the only power we have. Downvoting isn't even an option unless you have your own whales defending you. There really is nothing we can do except ask them nicely to stop..
I agree it would be very good to finally hear more from the devs. SMT's are nice but maybe some extra developers need to be found if there is not enough people to fix the existing issues as well.
But yes I agree, despite the issues, as long as Steemit keeps working, I'll keep steemin' !!
And thanks to you too!
Yeah, after i wrote it I thought that Steem can increase in price just from growth. I agree with all of your points. We continue as usual and watch the market closely :)
I agree. Problem is I used to support Haejin. Upvote everything and then summaries turned in to videos. YouTube turned in to dtube. I asked myself he is earning so much per post. Is more money with dtube really necessary or has it become more about let’s make as much money as I can make who know what happens a tomorrow. I am all for someone making money but you have to have balance. Haejin went from quality to quantity. I respect him but I am being really honest. That is my true feedback to him. When he started using dtube I was thrown off and I kinda stopped upvoting. I saw the amounts he was making and I saw what he was earning on dtube, and he absolutely put no summary on those videos so you have to watch the dtube video or you have no choice. If he has summary I will upvote but I rarely even read his blogs anymore.
I agree with all your points. What's happening with Haejin is clear abuse of the system even if it is allowed and it's ultimately hurting folks that are trying to add value to the platform.
Great share. I've been using my SBD to buy other alts. I always feel better diversifying and this post helped reassure that. I may have to start grabbing some EOS...so many good options out there.
As a longstanding study of history of stocks, we can tell you one thing for certain: Steemians probably don't have to worry much about their Steem price for the near to medium term. If you think about yahoo vs AltaVista or Google vs yahoo, the damage wasn't done to the former until WELL after the latter was up and running for at LEAST a year-- with product. Google was probably born around 1999, yet we remember yahoo still cranking higher thru at LEAST 2002. That's 3 full years of google being up and running before it hurt yahoo shareholders. Also remember quite vividly being long Overture stock in 2001 and starting to get worried about these Google people (who were still private and 2 years away from IPO) in about the Spring of 2002. This is just ONE example, but there are many. How about Apple and Microsoft? They co-existed for two decades, with one pulling WAY ahead of the other by 2000, then 20 years after THAT look where we are now, AAPL is about to be the first trillion dollar company and has left MSFT in the dust (yet MSFT shareholders aren't complaining TOO much!).
So, at least at first, it's not zero sum. In the END it might be, but we recommend Steemians not worry about it for now, and in fact can double-down on the powerups since a new competitor sometimes "proves that the original guys are onto something". Again, this is from experience.
Also, see our Apple writeup... (we get no more "juice" for it bc its 13 days old, but you still might find it helpful investing-wise)
https://steemit.com/aapl/@harpooninvestor/aapl-why-you-shouldn-t-be-scared-of-apple-usd600-target-price
We will be doing an overdue writeup on SNAP too, a stock we've liked since it cracked it's $17 IPO price, and like even more now at $19 (for a long 5-10 year trip to $300).
Also resteeming this, rare for us, but this is exactly the content for which we come to steemit in the first place.
Also, since we're talking about social media, we've recently (today especially) gotten pretty excited with Snap's stock price:
https://steemit.com/money/@harpooninvestor/snapchat-the-greatest-investment-in-the-stock-market-at-usd17-15
Thanks so much for this long, thorough and well thought-out reply!
You make some valid points with regards to Yahoo stocks slowly dwindling instead of instantly crashing. But there is a bit of a difference between the stock markets and the crypto markets in terms of volatility and liquidity firstly, but also because in this particular market users == investors. We're not talking about institutions hoarding STEEM and speculating so much as individual users who may very well pack up their bags, cash out of STEEM and buy into EOS-Steemit. Contrary to a slow dwindle, with the current liquidity in the markets this could put extraordinary pressure on the prices. Literally every user leaving this platform means one more investor cashing out.
I do agree that at some point 'OMG SOCIAL MEDIA CRYPTO' hype is going to strike, and people are going to look at STEEM. However... it can go otherwise too. Just look at Bitshares, which is the world's first DEX, yet everybody seems more keen to adopt other DEXes than to use Bitshares for some reason. Just like how in every discussion about DEXes being the future, somebody will stand up and say 'But... we already have Bitshares...', somebody may say the same when Socialmedia-crypto-hype strikes and reference STEEM. I don't know what it is or why - but on other social media you will find very few people talking about STEEM. It is practically invisible on platforms such as Reddit. Same as with Bitshares, actually, which seems to have a strong core following but have difficulties reaching the main crypto crowd.
And we shouldn't underestimate the Dan Larimer effect either: responsible for the world's largest ICO ever, and EOS is arguably one of the most popular crypto's out there. In big businesses it's all about removing friction, and when the EOS ecosystem is wide enough and you have EOSteemit interoperability with tons of other EOS projects, yet STEEM has some hindrance due to it being it's own blockchain - this could have it's effect too.
Doubling down seems like a risky strategy, unless one is already heavily diversified and doubling down on many other things too. I am mainly worried about the smalltime minnows who have maybe a hundred dollars or two on here, which they worked their ass off for, and they are at risk due to being unfamiliar with the ongoings in crypto. For some of my followers, I know they mean well and are super honest, but I really worry about them having all their eggs in one basket. Some of them got lucky by being on Steemit early enough and have quite some funds - but otherwise they may be rather inexperienced in the whole of crypto. The big whales, I'm not that worried about.. they'll have taken action in time and know their way around I suppose.
Yep, but the overall market didn't become $800 billion in December from users, it was Wall St getting involved. So dont underestimate the power of silent holders of crypto who don't know the first thing about the crypto they hold. Take Korea and it's bid-up of SBD, right? Everyone who knows Steem knows SBD shouldn't really go up faster than Steem, or even up at all. But it does, even now, when the "Gaurdians" (to borrow a Minecraft meme) of Steem are planning to make SBD go from it's current $5 perch (per USD) to $1.00 in the near future! so even the INSIDERS aren't powerful enough to stop the numbskully herds from investing in one-liner themes and cocktail-party hints.
Best thing to do, will be to just get involved with the new platform and see if it's better. Even if it is, we've found the previous platform isn't usually done yet. Snap vs FB is a perfect example, FB continues upwards even tho Snap has been stealing market share for years now, outgrowing FB to this most recent quarterly report. Yet investors still trust the big guy, and ignore the problem coming right at them.
again, we agree with what you're saying, it just doesn't always work out so crisply in reality, that's all we're saying.
Frankly, we'll all be fine either way, altho some early-birds in Steem might take a hit if the new platform doesn't reward being early like the old one does now. but even some of that reputation will transfer.
interesting. Let's see how it will end up
Hello harpooninvestor, as a fellow investor I would love to discuss with you about the market. Join my community: https://discord.gg/vDPAFqb
(pandora is in there too)
https://steemit.com/money/@harpooninvestor/snapchat-the-greatest-investment-in-the-stock-market-at-usd17-15
that's our half of the discussion!
Last year, after rocking on Steemit for several months, I considered shutting down my regular blog. Then, after feeling a few Steemit tremors from within, I decided to keep the blog intact, just as a backup to any turmoil that might arise. It made absolutely no sense to bail on my long-time blog and put all my eggs in one basket. Afterall, Steemit is still an infant and may or may not ever grow up! While the entire crypto space is relatively new, there are so many things that can happen. I think your strategy going forward is solid and diversification is a must for survival. Good post @pandorasbox!
Thanks, and yes, I agree.. bet on more than one horse!
For the time being though all the Steemit competitors are still a long time away, and Steemit is still working pretty well for the time being
Absolutely. Oh, and the Kentucky Derby just finished... how many horses did you bet on? lol
Really great post! What's that coming over the hill is it a monster, a monster EOS!!
For me rather than EOS I feel narrative is the Black Swan when everyone is looking at EOS and Steemit the real power is hidden in narrative which will also release during summer with a direct cash out option. 13 Weeks is a long time to depower that said we will see who wins out in the end.
it will likely take a long time to build a new social networking platform... unless there is some chance they are developing it at the same time as eos...
Everyone is concerned I think.
I've become fairly dependant on steemit, yet the platform is changing as more people come, it's harder to get those votes I was starting to get used to :-/ Work harder and write more is what I need to do
Well, despite that there may be competition coming from EOS, since posting this article I've done more thorough research into EOS by comparing it to NEO and discovered that EOS has a built-in ability to freeze accounts, which means that it's not actually censorship resistant. Which is a big feature of STEEM of course! So while a blogging platform on EOS is possible, it will likely be moderated and censored like all the others are while STEEM still offers actual censorship resistance. So that should keep STEEM alive, despite competition!
As well as anonymity, since Dan wishes to have strong identity verification this may be a disincentive to those who enjoy the relative anonymity in the cryptosphere
Exactly. I think blockchains like EOS are going to be a whole different beast than the old school ones which put things like censorship resistance and anonimity in high regards.
I think this may also play a role in the decision to go for 21 Block Producers. Maybe for the model EOS is looking at, slightly less decentralization is not a bad thing. It may in fact be beneficial, as it makes regulatory compliance a lot easier if there's only 21 parties required to comply, rather than hundreds.
Seems like good news, the steemit needs some more fire under its ass to make better more responsible changes. or, probably more accurately, the good writers will just migrate to the better new platform, assuming Larimer improves on his past mistakes.
and we share your trajectory and concern.
on the bright side for Steemians, Larimer sounds far far away from a steemit competitor in those posts, and as you might know we're close to the Everipedia idea coming to fruition quite soon.
That's true, perhaps this will light some fire under their behind's and get them to improve on STEEM!
I don't think so, to me steemit is the most stable and full-fledged operational platform based on a cryptocurrency even though it is in beta. So even if they do something similar to this, steem has been here for a long time and has a quite big community.
This is for sure the best advice a man can give in the current state of cryptocurrency, and I completely agree with your strategy
About the article though: I think it's quite curious that Dan chooses EOS as a platform for his new project. EOS itself hasn't really proved itself and so it appears like a very risky endaevour to go all-in on a platform which in itself might not succeed. What are the main reasons he chose for EOS over for example NEO or NEM?
Well, mainly because Dan Larimer is building EOS :) So he probably believes in it's success!
So he would never build on platforms of his competition like NEO or ETH or NEM!
Dan Larimer built both Bitshares and STEEM, and EOS is his current project. Once he finishes that, apparently he will build a Steemit competitor on top of that.
O wow I wasn't aware of that. That makes sense! :D I'm not gonna worry too much about it yet. Healthy competition is alwyas nice and will keep the developers of Steemit from slacking off. But it is something to keep an eye on in the future when things might get a bit more specific :).
I learned a lot reading this article! Thanks, I'm curious how all this stuff unfolds. This stuff is so exciting to me, we are still milliseconds after the big bang when it comes to everything crypto related
Grab your popcorn! So much drama and excitement in crypto, television can't match it!
Who knows what will happen. As of now I am staying on Steemit, but I have to say, I trust Dan more than Ned.
Same here, and I think most people are more fans of Dan than Ned!
Might be bleak indeed for steemit...
However, I think it might be a good thing. Some serious competition is good for steemit inc. They are too slow in producing results.
It is also good for whales who are abusing the system. It should make them worry about steemians leaving.
Thanks on the heads up! Im not sure its a bad thing. Maybe this motivates Steemit to improve and fix some things going forward.
I hope so, because if they don't, it doesn't bode well!
I'm not too scared on the short/mid-long-term. It's like Bitcoin: there is way better tech out there, but Bitcoin has the community and adoption.
There will be a lot of Steemit competitors, maybe even created by the possibility to have SMTs itself.
I do believe that Steemit as a whole should really be improved when you look a usability. Better ability to determine good quality authors and good quality content. A better balance between creation and consumption. A much better way to actually find the right content on the platform etc.
It is interesting that a lot of people create value adding services to be used with Steemit, but if we're honest, quite a few of those functionalities should be built in in the first place...
Anyway, still love the platform :-)
Yes, I completely agree that many functions are missing! This isn't so much due to STEEM though, but Steemit. If you go to Busy.org for example you'll find that it has many of the functions that Steemit is sorely missing. Sadly, I just don't like the 'feel' of it and the fact posts are smaller, so I use Steemit+addons.
I don't worry about the short/mid term either really, since Larimer still has to finish EOS, then polish it some, before he even has time to start a new project. Still, he isn't particularly known to stick around to really finish a project, so you never know. But if he actually goes through with building a competitor, I think its going to be popular. There are many fans of Dan Larimer, especially on Steemit. I don't know quite as many fans of @ned. SMTs are nice, but EOS itself is all about launching tokens. STEEM's blockchain could never compete on that level, simply because EOS is built from the ground up for them and STEEM is only adding them as a side-thought.
And yes I too do love the platform! Maybe I will simply get on both platforms, and crosspost everything anyway!
We'll see how this plays out. If I were Dan I would focus on EOS for the coming years, and not the dApps to be built on top of it. With Neo and Waves for instance, they are trying to built an ecosystem to support all projects launched on their blockchain.
I think that a lot of 'blockchain 3.0' projects forget to do that and just try to be superior on the tech part. Building an ecosystem takes a lot of time and it's vital to the success of the platform.
It is only a divergence between 2 people. Steemit is a great platform and the community awesome and will continue to grow. I will not invest energy again on another platform like Steemit on EOS, and hodl my Steem Power to the moon ;)
I hope you are right! But like I said in my post, I really think the safest bet is to diversify a little so that if one thing fails, you always have the other! Losing it all is terrible, and I am not such which is more sad: losing it all suddenly, or slowly seeing it dwindle away? :-/
Of course I am not recommending the opposite either.. don't take it all out either, 'cause like you say STEEM may do fine and instead moon and you don't want to miss out on that either of course!
Fantastic article! I've followed and up-voted your post i look forward to your future content!
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This post has received a 1.49 % upvote from @drotto thanks to: @pandorasbox.
I'll just post on both until the earning potential makes on or both no longer viable. There are many other competitor's out there now and many more to come. SteemIt is #1 right now in my eyes.
Interesting post... a lot of things to think about. The only thing you can say is for sure, is the point about diversifying.
Better do It, becouse we are in an uncertain medium. Crypto may be great, but may be dangerous as well.
Good advice.
Too be fair.. EOS will be competing with literally everything...
Steemit has be truly destroyed by greed though. There is so much spam and I still frickin don’t understand how all this shit works. Seriously I am not stupid but you have to have a system that works and I don’t think steem is working. The way the voting system is, is horrible. Delegate voting lower bla bla bla. People fighting for votes, down voting to get more votes or what not lol.
"Destroyed" is past-tense and I don't believe that. Steemit is still a great platform although it has many issues. What project doesn't? Self-destruction won't happen overnight, if it happens at all, nor will it happen a week after a competitor is launched. My guess though is that if some of these mounting concerns are not addressed, then like a cancer, it will begin to erode slowly to a point where the participation rate simply dwindles. Those that are paying attention will have quietly powered down already. And the world will move on.
Sorry I arrived a little late to this post but tend to agree with everything you have posted... Steem is at risk while the upvote/resteem/bot situation continues to worsen. EOS is the most likely candidate to destroy steem though I will stick around for the time being awaiting an alternative.
So, this was around 1 year ago... how do feel about the topic now @pandorasbox ?