I remember writing that EOS was cheap as chips at $1.40 ... I don't even know what to call this ... ridiculous?
I've started building into a very small margin long position with my actual holdings, for every 100 tokens I hold I've gone long 25. This is probably the least amount of leverage I've ever used, I'm being careful though because this is an investment and not a trade.
The bottom may not yet be in ... but I have a sneaking suspicion it is:
Volume peaked at record highs on the 6th of September with 18 million tokens changing hands, 12 million of that was on the sell side. As you can see from the chart above though (blue area graph at bottom of chart), volume has steadily declined since then - there does not appear to be much selling interest down here. Friday and Saturday were both small up days with 2 mil on the buy side vs 1 on the sell. 50c looks solid for the moment.
I'll get margin called at 12c or so ... if it goes that low I've already lost 90% of my investment, so more than happy to take the risk while beefing up my upside exposure substantially. Would like to see a solid rally off 50c on high volume ... I'd be willing to get a little more aggressive then.
Anyone else got margin longs on? Would to love to hear from you ... am I being a pussy? Should I just get balls deep already?
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You might be right but I'd personally prefer to see a bit of a base built and some accumulation before I'd be going long. EOS is potentially a great investment, but sentiment has seriously affected it both on the way up AND the way down.
Yeah I think I'm right to be cautious tech wise ... having said that, fundamentally I reckon the price is a joke right now ... victim of a ton of baseless FUD and bad timing with recent China biz. Dawn is out, no one can say EOS "doesn't even exist" now ... markets can't stay irrational for ever ... rally only a matter of time.
oh yeah, EOS is just experiencing what most all coins experince, EOS needs to launch before [peoppe can criticize it, theyll all see that it will work just as well as Ethereum, but even better and with more features and possibilitries will be seen and many will invcest and price will soar JUST like ethereums did! ethereum was seen as useless by many then teh ICO craze starded and ethereum skyrocketed almost overnight i remember when it was going from $30 to $40 and wasnt even at $100 yet then started just blasting off, went from like $30 to $400, and EOS will do this, EOS will start on its way up from $1 to $10 to $100 and it will happen FASt like Ethereum! the EOS network has to laucnh first so lts just accumulate a smuch cheap EOS and as much cheap Steem as possible!
Steemit official app launching soon it will change everything SO many new users! lets prepare for it! buy steempower now! steem about to DOUBLE in price with new steemit app launch!
Exactly mate! Sorry I haven't had time to read or respond to your larger post below yet, but it's right up there on my to do list!
Hi bulleth and buggedout, intresting read, thanks for sharing. I'm accumulating so I'll have free access to an abundance of resources. The price is great right now, I hope it stays this low or lower until the end of the distribution. I've no doubt about the tech, it makes complete sense to build a paralyzable commercial scale dapps platform from the ground up. Ethereum has paralyzable processing on it's radar and i think it would be cool if that happen too. Did you see this analysis by @jacobt https://steemit.com/eos/@jacobt/eos-has-nearly-usd500-million-dollars
Hi John, I agree the tech is amazing. That piece from @jacobt is a little off though as he makes no distinction between block.one's money and "EOS" (which isn't even an entity and definitely doesn't have a claim on block.one's revenue)
Fair point, although he almost does in his conclusion with "capital on hand with block.one" @Jacobt then writes "EOS has 2x as much capital on hand"
Are you referring to the section "Learning from the past" and the Kmart scenario? I kind of skip read that section. Could you elaborate, why you make the point at little ?
I think it's a really important point. @jacobt makes out that the money raised in the token sale belongs to "EOS", but it is block.one's money. Of course they will spend some of it on developing EOS, but the money definitely doesn't belong to "EOS" (which is an opensource blockchain, not a company)
I just bought $54 EOS for $33 (using SBD i sold for Litecoin on Bittrex and then sent to Exodus Wallet for only 50 cents in Bittrex withdrawl fees (or .01 LTC) and then within exodus they make it SUPER easy to exchange Litecoin (or bitcoin or ethereum etc they have like over 10 coins now0 to exchange to EOS,
SUPER easy to exchange u basicaly hit just one button, just select the coins and click exchange and it does all the work for u with shapeshift! SO nice! so glad i was able to wait till now to buy my EOS oh man we are SO LUCLY to get EOS for under $1 each!
Its like we are getting Ethereumf or like 70 cents guys, this is fyucking deal of teh century! Its like buying Ethereum for $1 or less! now its over $200 almost $300 and EOS will definitly be up in the $100s soon then $1000s in the next few years we will basicaly see EOS as "our ethereum" or that Thing that got all those steemit users rich! we will even be able to use our newfound EOS wealth to buy more Steempower just like many Altcoin investors on steemit had been able to make a LOT ofmoney investing in altcoins which they were then able to use to invest in steempower OR simply use to offset steemit earnings to allow them to keep all their steemit earnings in steempowert allowing peopel to never need tio powerdown....this surg in EOS will make us all so happy we bought EOS, oh man EOS is the ultamite christmas Bopnus, by christmas EOS will be allowing most of us to have a great holiday season....oooohweeeee
OOOH JUST heard my EOS wallet sound recive my EOS coins! nice i LOVE that sound!
Oh wow yes I have over 100 EOS now i feel SO GOOD I wuld have had to pay like $500 for this when they first came out, i am so happy i was able to buy EOS at 60 cents or so, wow so cool, i feel like the people who wait to buyt steem at under $1 so they just get it super cheap buy there isa "rtesistanc" peopel who will alwaysgbuy it asit gets super cheap becaus ethey KNOW how cheap it is, its undervalued both steemand EOS and they will go up so miuch we will all feel SOOO mnuch richer,
i cant WAIt for this YES imagine having 100 Ethereum that is like $30,000 with $300 ethereum, but EOS wil be where ethereum is and THEN some! we will see fucking EOS be up to the $1000 level and i am just SO GLAD I will have $100 of these future $1000 bills! w007!!!
EOS will be more rugged and protected and decentralized and useful and efficient than Ethereum with the most possibilities with more and more people developing for it, EOS will open the doors for so many new ICOs of a new class
and EOS wealth will "Spill Over" if you will, into Steemit and people will buy steempower with that EOS money! woohooo man i should really try to learn more about EOS the more i learn the mopre promising it seems and i feel like very few will appreciate this stuff and EOS is a rare innovative cryptocurrency blockchain that will allow for all the things ethereum is doing but much much more! I feel like EOS will be our Lord and Savior :D our saving grace! our Silver Lining!
EOS will definitly do what Ethereum did this year, go from $1 to $300 and many of us will finally get to experice that feelingf that many of us missed in March during the great altcoin rally of early 2017 haha i know it will go down in history as just the beginning of one of the GREATEST bull market rallies in history!
I think its really sad how markets behave lately. People just jump on thinking it will go to the moon overnight.
I went into EOS around 1.5$ because I think it has potential (still gambling). People selling at this level are doing whatever imo. Why did they buy it in the first place apart from just a blind bet ?
Yeah I'm really not sure why you would sell down here, though as others have pointed out in the comments, a lot of it is probably people arbing the ICO
Could be indeed arbitrage. But isn't the ICO price usually higher than the exchange price ?
Last I looked a few weeks ago it was fluctuating between discount and premium - see conversation with @codewithcheese below :)
Ha indeed :) To be honest Im just repeating what I read on the ICO price Vs exchange. Anyway current pricing really hurts :) It even feels it could go deeper what really doesnt make sense...
Thank You @bulleth as a Old Time Stockbroker 27 years, I have been out of the financial corporate world almost 7 years now. I just want to say I love charts and technicals. I will say this if you are going to use Margin at all keep it to a small percentage. I like your analysis and no I don't think you need to get GREEDY with bigger margin exposure............Now lets get EOS going to the Upside !
Hey mate, thanks for the comment and glad my analysis is up to the par of the old guard!
Thank you @bulleth for your engagement and reply. It is time for everyone to be excited about the Future
:)
Hey there @bulleth, just remember... whatever you sell-off, I buy!
I'm buying up as much of these little token gems as possible, because what could be better than a much better version of Ethereum, that doesn't require any fees?
I'm buying, and holding, with no limits or stops in play... I'm keeping em all baby! 💰
This is important to consider. It will keep going down because of the structure of the ICO. Every day 2 million more EOS are being released and split between those who sent in ETH for that day. This is creating a very artificial market where there is only incentive for investors to send in ETH at below the market rate. Otherwise they can just buy on the market. This has led to EOS ICO being a straight arbitrage play. Where traders are buying into the ICO at slightly lower than the market rate and then dumping it. It will continue to go down because of this mechanic until close to the end of ICO when I expect irrational investors to step in again.
Hi @codewithcheese, very interesting I hadn't thought of this as my experience with the ICO was I got a slightly better price, but then got completely screwed trying to claim my tokens. I haven't checked in a while, but when I bought it seemed like a bit of a gamble: I bought on a low volume day and got a good price, but participants two days earlier paid more than the market price.
Yep and it's narrowing closer and closer to the market price each day. It's remarkable how consistent it is now. Check out https://eosscan.io/ the current price is misleading but if you scroll down you can see the progression over the days.
I'd say some smart cookie has coded up a bot that sends ETH 10m before expiry if it's looking profitable!
@bulleth How did you get screwed trying to claim the tokens?
Although I've not experienced problems claiming myself, I'm still interested to hear your experience, because @walterjay and myself found some of the information on the EOS site to be somewhat unclear around 'claim and register' see here
There could definitely be more information on the claim process, i.e the difference between the 'claim' and 'claimall' functions.
I really hope so! Accumulation!
Unfortunately, I believe this may be the case.
I've been so surprised at EOS going so low lately. Isn't this supposed to be the Ethereum killer? I'm going long on a handful of EOS because I really think it will take off, but it hurts to see it going down so far. On the plus side, I've been able to lower my dollar cost average. Let's hope it pays off for all of us EOS investors.
Yup it hurts good... Love buying this up cheap ... only an idiot will sell at this price... so tempted to say fk it and go all in.
So you're actually long (margin trading) or just buying (investing)?
Yeah even though I only added 25% with my long position, I've managed to do that at nearly a third of the price so pretty happy with that XD
Just straight investing without margin. I also managed to pick up some at close to 1/3rd the price as some earlier acquired EOS. Definitely lowers the average price by a lot! Thanks again for your post.
Yeah definitely, I need to sink some more in and really bring that average down. Glad you enjoyed!
I am loving how cheap EOS is right now, helps me top up my stack on the cheap. Its only a matter of time before it moons
I double up every time it drops by half... wish I knew its bottom to go all in!
you and me both. But i will just keep buying along with a few other high ceiling coins and see where we are at in a year or two from now
Next big peak is at 1.00 US .........then it will drop over time between.... .25-.27 cents..... somewhere in the journey to the billionth coin......then we will see some fireworks upwards........small thought for traders ...short long or day traders.... since the seventh decimal point to most if not all changes .....it i s telegraphing a big rise for bitcoin in the near future and a wider spread to buy and sell EOS........as of current it is bouncing around .0001420- .0001550..... from beginning of inception till a few weeks ago there were only 6 decimal places with three trading numbers......food for thought indeed ago there were only 6 decimals with three trading numbers .... basically illl go like .0001001 to .0000999 and spread more like this in near future probably before the Seg fork....
Yeah it will definitely have its peaks and valleys over the next year until the ICO finishes. 25-30 cents is possible, but once the ICO is over and people start adopting the platform thats when the real money will be made. I dont even know whats possible with EOS. It has the potential to be a 50 billion dollar marketcap if it reaches its full potential. It will be interesting none the less
it'll be a lot more than that by 2020 average in is the best if not a day trader where one can get in and out
That's the way!
I can see why it would drop to these levels: 1 billion tokens and the tall order of competing with Ethereum (and Ethereum Classic and Lisk). I like the potential, but it seems extremely risky.
no risk if you did your research... EOS is superior by many magnitudes ... and dont forget about dan larimer ... just that is enough.
I don't know much about Lisk, but I don't think it's a tall order at all for it to compete with Eth - the technology is miles better. If we assume a market cap similar to Eth's, fair price is in the mid $20s even with 1 Billion tokens ;)
Only invest what you can afford to lose. I think EOS will continue to decline in value until the ICO is over. I really think they made a mistake with this year-long death by a thousand cuts. Remember we are not even 50% of the way through it. I'll probably buy if it starts showing signs of moving up or at least stabilizing over a decently long period (a month or two) as the released tech starts to build some substantial buzz. Remember it took a long time for ETH to really build momentum and value. There was a pretty long period when you could pick it up for a song and that was without a year long drip, drip, drip of 2 million EOS per day and few Chinese buyers to (legally) buy it.
No mistake... done by design. This was targeted so non-traditional investors could buy a monthly stack while giving EOS some time to produce Dapps as well as battle test the network for launch ... The hardest part is building the community. The plan was to spread the tokens as far and wide as possible and prevent whales.
Spot on!
Completely agree. I don't know if it was a mistake by the team but if it wasn't then it is even worse. This is the reward to early investors... Not buying any more EOS and I will be happy with just recovering from the loses.
Don't worry about losses, I'm riding this baby to the top. The way I see it, the cheaper the better at this point.
You could be right, but I hope not - @turmericrob makes an interesting point above about inflation actually slowing as the ICO drags on!
I've been waiting for the bottom and some consolidation for ages now.The daily has looked shit for ages.
A girl in yoga pants who talks charts ... can we get married Choo?
Only if you move to Panama to minimise our tax liability.
deal
Good one! :)
Because of the testnet and the London conference I went long on EOS around 1.40 and increased my holdings a few times on the way down but stopped because the bottom is not in sight yet.
I fear that this could go down to bitshares level. I remember buying in several times in the spring and watching it grow and now all profit is gone. It is really frustrating to watch investments in alt's lose value to bitcoin. I really don't believe in BTC because of it's numerous flaws but it is really a no risk investment compared to alt's
I double my stack every time it half's.... and can do it a few more times .... if it drops to those levels (unlikely being that it's actually a thing "dawn") I would have over 100k coins.
If .18 EOS happens I'm going to sell my entire ETH stack into it.
I doubt EOS will go anywhere near BTS, but I am slightly worried by spikes lower triggering my margin!
Re: bitcoin and risk ... I don't think this is likely at all, but it's not hard to imagine a scenario where the top is already in and it just dies. The tech is redundant lol
Re: Bitcoin and risk. Impossible, still too many buyers. Network effect will get stronger.
True. The "problem" is you (almost) still have to get some btc to get any other alts.
Crash!!!!!
yes plzzzz
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STOPI had the same thought last night... Undecided as to whether I want to open a margin long position though - the structure of the ICO means I would have to either keep an eye on it or use a trailing stop.
Yeah I've just kept it real small so I don't have to monitor, still worried about spikes/flash crashes though!
@bulleth you've put together a really good post here. Appreciate the analysis. Helps me a make more informed decision. Personally though, I feel that that EOS is one to go with and might eventually bring the end to Ethereum.
This was actually discussed in my latest Steemit episode. Might help you with your decision making. Check it out and would love to hear your thoughts comments and questions!
I've shared the link with you below.
https://steemit.com/ethereum/@alexmavor/time-to-believe-the-hype-what-is-ethereum-and-is-it-ready-for-eos-crypto-nights-episode-3
Hi Anton, thanks for your feedback - glad you found my post useful! I'll read over your post after this and leave a comment :)
1 Billion total supply of Eos ... that is one factor working against it ...IMO price movement is limited
Honestly when I see a total supply / authorized coins that large , I stay away .
Move onto the next crypto , so many why get stuck on one ?
No need to .
IMO that's a very simplistic way of looking at things ... even with a billion coins, if it matched ETH's cap fair price is in the mid $20s.
EOS is playing catch up now ..so to suggest eth market cap as par with eos now is not a good argument...good luck ..I'll be watching from the side for now
Simplistic ? No just reality ...name me one coin that has 1 BILLION in total supply / circulation that is over a $1.oo
The fact that most just look at price and don't consider other factors and call it Cheap is simplistic...other factors someone might consider....total supply of coins ..revs , profits ?
Name me one crypto that has 1,000,000,000 coins that is over a $1.oo
Once again good luck to you !
Yes simplistic, looking at a single fundamental in isolation is incredibly simplistic. Markets aren't that simple.
Hi - yes I agree we have found the bottom, but calling EOS cheap at $1+ was not right (not trying to start a debate here) so I do apologise for my opinion.
I do a lot of calls on trading view (most are pretty accurate) ... and I called EOS under 60 cents is the real price before the funding period is out. From my experience looking at the book and trading, it was quite apparent that there was a lot of market manipulation to keep the price up. This stopped with the china ICO ban.
As a trader I can absolutely now recommend that getting into EOS is probably the best time, so I do agree with this analysis. The market manipulation is gone, and we have stopped dumping with BTC dumps. This may mean the bottom is in.
I have bids at 0.5, 0.45, 0.40 and my stop loss is 0.375 -- Where I will reasses my chart. I doubt we get to my stop loss.
Hahaha no need to apologize for your opinion - what's your tradingview handle?
I called it cheap in my original piece based on an eventual price forecast in the mid $20s based on Eth's market cap at the time :)
I love your balls re: the long - you aren't worried about a spike into 35? Bit close for comfort for me!
Also in for a bit of leverage on the upside of this. I could get margin called at 15c or so at present and if it reaches that level then it is possible that the project is going nowhere - If it comes to that, I'll assess it and if I am still positive, I will cover and look at doubling up as I plan to use the tokens for app development.
A lot of the recent price reduction seems to have been Chinese and FUD related. So far 47.6% of tokens have been distributed (if we count block.one's 10%) but from now on the amount of inflation and risk could come down considerably. By the end of December EOS Dawn 2.0 will be out and 67% of tokens will be distributed. We also may well have some more clarity on community choices for blockchain implementation.
Seems like we're in a very similar trade!
That's a very interesting point you raise about inflation slowing as the ICO drags on - never thought of that!
Welcome back mate!
I've given this a resteem as it goes well with my EOS blog post from the other day.
Good to be back and some awesome comments on this one too! Will check your post after I get through this and cheers for your loyal resteems!
I will mention this since no one else has. EOS has been mentioned by jsnip4 on YouTube as being a potential web bot "hit". What is the web bots? Go look up Clif High at halfpasthuman.com and look for his "Crypto reports".
jsnip4 postulates that EOS is one of the altcoins mentioned in a Crypto report as going far below its' initial offering, then simmering for several months until it takes off similar to Bitcoin rising to $4,800+ on its' own. jsnip4 has several YouTube videos on this potential behind EOS - you can look them up, view them, and decide for yourself.
Based on this prediction, I started looking at EOS when it was $1.78. The "fire sale" at $0.55-$0.58 means that the "little guy" can really "load the boat" with EOS. People have called EOS an "Ethereum killer". Whether or not EOS has longevity, let alone fulfills the web bot prediction, remains to be seen. I personally do not like the "going downward to dis-enrollment" line that EOS has on coinmarketcap.com right now. But at current penny prices I don't mind speculating.
Hey mate thanks for the tip, will have to look into when I finally get a minute and completely agree, risk:reward is too good to ignore down here!
Yeah I am thinking of buying since a few weeks now. It is going down and I know it would be a great time to buy. But EOS is not in "my" exchanges. Frustrating.
You can use Exodus wallet where you can have your EOS tokens saved. Also this wallet have the Shapeshift market build in and you can get more EOS very easy.
Web here https://www.exodus.io
If you need help procuring EOS hit me up on discord ;)
Thanks. I'll remember this. Even for small amounts ?
Yeah no worries, I won't charge a fee or anything. It is just very easy for me to buy from an Australian exchange. If you send me Bitcoin I can buy it and send to you very quickly. The exchange does charge a 1.5 EOS tx fee which is a little rough though!
Cool! Can I pay in SBD ? It is easier for me. As soon as I have like 10-15 SBD I'd like to send to you to buy a few. I'd really like to have at least a few EOS ... :) Is it ok for you ? (yeah 1.5 eos fees is rough.. never mind)
I am margin long on EOS and currently in the red, but I keep buying on dips.
My man!
Ha, ha! My day has come, luckily I bought a bunch of EOS at the bottom price right before it jumped :)
Hope you're right mate, I'm in same boat, levered up 1:1 at the base ... Bitcoin looking heavy on lower timeframes though
EOS really looks like it's getting out of the the despair phase. There's a double bottom around $0.5 and it's stabilizing. Accumulation phase might be starting...
Yep, my position is slightly green now after Bitcoin strength overnight :)
I bought at around $1.5-1.6. It is now worth 1/3. I am not buying any more EOS. I'll just wait to see if it ever gets to that price again and sell. People will say that the ICO is great and whatever. This is the worst ICO for early investers so far. This project will be rewarding those who buy EOS right before going live...
Sounds like a shocking trading strategy to be honest, why wait for it to recover and then get out at breakeven? That means you took on the risk for nothing. You'll be kicking your self if it moons from there.
I don't care. All my other investments are very green right now and this is the only one with loses and by -66%... I will be happy with recovering my initial investment. The ICO sucks for people who trusted the project from the very beginning.
i was looking at the charts and it seems like .50 is the lowest its ever been. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a bunch of buy orders at .50 USD. keep it from going any lower.
As I write this EOS is at 0.57.
I agree with the other posters that we have a long way to go until the end of the distribution (currently in rd.92 out of 350 and there is a chance that the price may go lower) but I will be surprised if people were to acquire EOS at this price or lower (either through dist or open market) and feel there is more of a downside than upside to want to sell.
There is a lot of hype with EOS, as proven by what people paid in the early rounds (until round 60 the average was probably approx $1.5).
I predict that we will see a lull in the action for another 160 rounds or so and then in Q4 of the distribution hype will set in again and investors/traders will jockey for the best entry price point.
So here is the thing. There is no reason to think the price in the open market will go above what you can obtain it for in the distribution. Therefore the price will only increase if there is MORE competition in the distribution. That isn't likely because I know that I have many rounds to figure out when the best time to jump in at (as everyone else). THe bottom line here (and excuse me if i'm not being entirely clear [it's late]) the price pressure will not likely come from the distribution side so more likely it will come from the open market. Open market is of course what people think EOS is worth at the time. I don't think there will be pressure to buy unless the price continues to drop on the open market.
I don't think there will be a rush on the distribution side that would increase the price. There is more of a chance that the demand will continue to drop (or at least stabilize for a long period).
In sum, I don't think there is a need to rush into EOS at this point. The big picture is YES 0.57 is a great price in the VERY LONG RUN. Heck..I will say anything under $0.75 is accumulate time and a great entry point. However in the short term i don't think there will be much price action and if anything it will go a little lower. The big problem is increasing demand and with 250 more rounds left, i just don't see massive demand anytime soon.
And I went ahead and bought at $0.57 two days ago :)
Good news for investors who bought their EOS on an exchange.
https://steemit.com/eos/@kcfrau/eos-io-is-now-updated-to-inclue-generate-eos-functions-for-non-metamask-users
gagner de l'argent euro bitcoin dollar facilement 300 $ par jour a 2017 .2018
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Thank You