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The Cookie Trend: A Decade of Sweet Delights

As each decade passes, a new dessert trend captures public fascination. In the 2000s, cupcakes and frozen yogurt dominated, while the 2010s saw the rise of whimsical treats like unicorn drinks and monster milkshakes. Now, in the 2020s, thick, extravagant cookies, boasting flavors and calorie counts that boggle the mind, have taken center stage, spearheaded by Crumble Cookies.

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These oversized confections, often echoing social media influences, have become a cultural and commercial phenomenon, highlighted by their staggering sugar content—sometimes double that found in a can of soda. Yet, the cookie craze isn't a new invention; cookies have been enjoyed for centuries. What we are witnessing is a business cycle where trendsetters and followers alike aim to capitalize on the latest dessert wave.

Market Dynamics

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Historically, dessert fads have followed a predictable pattern of boom and bust. The initial success of cupcakes and frozen yogurt led to a flood of similar offerings, as entrepreneurs rushed to capture the market before consumer interest waned. This cycle of saturation can lead to consumer fatigue, laying the foundation for the next dessert trend. Currently, the cookie industry reflects this dynamic, with quite a few new competitors seeking to ride the coattails of Crumble's unprecedented growth.

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Founded in 2017, Crumble emerged from its origins as a single location to an empire of 1,000 stores in just four years. Its ability to consistently maintain novelty, coupled with savvy pricing and marketing, has sparked a flurry of look-alike brands attempting to stake their claim in the booming cookie sector. In contrast to giants such as Mrs. Fields and Insomnia Cookies, which struggled to adapt to changing consumer preferences and competition, Crumble has redefined expectations with its creative business model.

The Evolution of Cookie Commerce

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Mrs. Fields pioneered the cookie shop concept in the 1970s, offering warm, freshly baked cookies that became an instant hit. Despite strong early growth and decent margins, the company struggled to cope with economic downturns in the 1990s, leading to an inability to compete with the resurgent demand for frozen desserts and other low-cost treats. Ultimately, Mrs. Fields shifted to a franchising model but suffered decreased earnings and competition from new players in the market.

Conversely, Insomnia Cookies capitalized on late-night cravings, primarily targeting college students. Their unpredictable growth is due in part to their real estate strategy; however, they faced challenges in price competitiveness and limited expansion opportunities, which led to a ceiling for revenue growth.

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Levain Bakery’s strategy diverged again, emphasizing premium offerings that challenged typical cookie norms. Their oversized cookies redefined market expectations, allowing them to charge more and command higher earnings per store. Their emphasis on limited product offerings ensured strong pricing power and consumer loyalty, albeit at a slower growth pace.

Crumble's Cookie Formula

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Crumble took a different approach, learning from predecessors while building a franchise-friendly model. Their oversized cookies and weekly rotating flavors have effectively created urgency among consumers and positioned Crumble as a destination brand rather than merely another cookie shop. The average Crumble store grossed around $1.8 million in 2022, with a much higher profit margin compared to others, paving the way for rapid expansion.

However, as Crumble aims high toward profit maximization, they face questions about the sustainability of their business model. Franchise fees have increased significantly, which raises concerns for operators about profitability. The company's reliance on rebate sales and kickbacks from suppliers further demonstrates their aggressive revenue strategies.

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By leveraging virality and social media engagement, Crumble has managed to create a strong brand presence, though the incessant tightening of profit margins could foreshadow challenges ahead. Even with their rapid growth, those margins have declined in recent years, signaling potential instability in a business model heavily reliant on consumer trends.

Independent Cookie Shops' Struggles

In Los Angeles, the independent shops, particularly "Cookie Good" and "Bake Some Noise," reveal a contrasting narrative to corporate giants. Cookie Good, established in 2008, has experimented with unique flavors much before the cookie trend peaked, yet they remain focused on maintaining a stable business without rapid, trend-driven growth.

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Bake Some Noise echoes a different sentiment, choosing to stick to traditional cookie recipes and classic flavors. Hailing from the gig economy, the duo behind Bake Some Noise found success through innovative online strategies, even catering to pop culture trends via limited release. Their journey underscores how essential adaptability and authenticity remain in a market filled with cookie newcomers trying to carve out a niche.

Conclusion: The Sweet But Sour Future

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The cookie market exemplifies a fascinating business landscape defined by cycles of innovation and replication. While giants like Crumble revel in their moment in the sun, the threats of market saturation loom large, indicating that the cookie craze may be ephemeral. Meanwhile, smaller, independent bakeries, based on principles of authenticity and a focus on classic offerings, may prove to be more resilient in the changing tide of consumer preferences.

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What remains clear is that the cookie business, despite its seemingly simple product offering, requires careful management and innovation. The future of cookies, like any dessert trend, will hinge upon the ability to adapt, keep costs manageable, and remain authentic to consumer desires. With stability far from guaranteed, the ongoing narrative will likely be a blend of ambitious new entrants, mainstream fads, and beloved neighborhood delights.