Introduction
I use to own more than 200,000 in STEEM/HIVEPOWER. A couple years ago I divested everything and move my capital elsewhere. Back then, there were some bad people destroying people's account just for disagreeing with them. Now that I contemplate whether or not I should reinvest heavily.
What keeps me from it
1. Staking Rules
So, what If I were to put everything in LEO/HIVE and powerup? First, I would lock my crypto for 3 months. That's a MAJOR no no for me. The opportunity cost is too high to lock my crypto there.
There are plenty of staking going on out there and all of them allow you to divest quickly. This rule keep any rational investor from ever staking. The only people who do are a hardcore believers.
Knowing that, what are the prospect for capital appreciation of the token? Very low indeed. This project is bound to stay a small cap project as long as the incentives goes against rational investing.
2. I Value Yield
Let's say I bought a 90 day HIVEPOWER delegation from Blocktrades to see if I can get a yield on it. 1 BTC would give me 473818.543 HIVEPOWER.
- Initial investment: 1BTC -> $55K
- Vote at 100%: ~15.25
- Maximum reward: $150.25 a day (10 self vote a day)
- Total reward over 90 days: $13,500
So even if I were to be a selfish bastard and vote of myself to get a yield I would have got a negative yield of -75.45%. That's assuming the value of HIVE doesn't tank as I does when the market goes bear.
So what's in it for an investor?
So you get your money locked for 3 months in the most fast paced and changing environment(crypto). Knowing there are other rational investors out there, what are the chance for capital appreciation beyond that of BTC and ETH? Finally, in terms of yield, there isn't anything there that would create a strong incentive for people who want to grow their stash by investing in the platform.
Tell me why I'm wrong
It's been a while since I spent time in the HIVE ecosystem. Maybe things have change and the tokenomics have changed while I was gone. Please tell me how I can rationally invest my money in HIVE in the current environment.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
In many aspects, you are completely right. But it describes only a one-sided situation. I am a creator. I engineer photographs that can take sometimes 20min or more even just the exposure time. Then writing an article around it and posting it can result in an effort of an hour. In my normal day job that hour defiantly results in a higher ROI for that hour. My passion is photography and if I see it as an optimization curve, Hive sits at that sweet spot where gaining access to crypto and being rewarded for it is way better than posting it on Instagram or Facebook. Yet to put in more money as you ask is hard for me too. I wish there would be more traffic and more creators. Only then I can see that the angle for an investor gets satisfied at the same time as a creator. Many here wait patiently for the moment Hive shines in the Light and millions onboard to Hive. Not sure when or even IF that will happens. I share my content on Twitter but with very little exposure. So it is not going to come from that direction. There is a scenario where you will not find the ROI one would get with other Alt cons or simply BTC.
If you don't find a second reason but the financial interest it will be hard to justify at this moment. Even for me, it's still just a passion project with my hand on the hand brake. I have seen many doing just the same and give up just the same. As sad as it is.
I do as much as I can as an individual to help the growth - I do so much only.
I totally get you!
The only reason I can think of for someone with money, to be asking a question as to why they should invest their money in a thing, when they could easily be investing it in another thing, is because they are intrigued by the thing first, and growth second.
Under the current vote-up model, there is no real immediate incentive for investors. You would be correct. The current model seems to be designed to entreat more organic, interactive, and creative growth for the purpose of attracting more of a "mainstream" user.
If I were Hive, this would be my primary goal--to expand and mainstream the userbase. What good is an engine that drives itself into the ground on inflated-auto-self-upvotes?
I agree with @mykos in the pyramid aspect. It's either going to be pillaged quickly by a few, or slowly by many. But pillaged it will be. Unless....it is mainstreamed productively.
And as we know, what this platform offers that ordinary social media platforms do not, is the introduction of the DAPP, the introduction of an intrinsic and independent economy, and the potential for smart media contracts. Decentralization could be another potentiality as well, but it's not completely unique.
If I were Hive, I would be asking you for money to invest in marketing, onboarding, CENTRALIZING of utility of the DAPPS, and simplifying the interfaces and exchanges for a more common hooman to use. I would be creating a central hub, or "fiverr", as it were, where devs and business owners alike could mingle.
Meahwhile, attracting more mainstream users via the "blogging" DAPP as a great way to bring more people together in a field for business owners to harvest from, through their advertising.
Incentivizing bloggers (non-investors) through upvotes and a supportive community isn't going to do squat without a long term growth plan on how we bloggers will be farmed for some kind of value in return. Sell our information like Zuckerberg and go to jail. I don't care. But we bloggers have value that is not intrinsic. It must be harvested. We must be lured into your games, your programs, your support groups, your gimmicks, and your products.
There is the value. We are the consumer. We buy things. We use things. We watch things. We eat things. WE are the ones contributing to this economy. WE are the real value. And WE are the real reason you want to invest.
But blogging and voting this place to the ground will not do any good long term, as the HP will be powered down every time -- unless there is a game plan to add value by bringing in users who buy stuff from business owners, and business owners who buy stuff from devs. The value of HBD will increase as people invest in this idea of centralizing the DAPPS hub, strengthing and growing the blogging community, and decentralizing the distribution of the coin.
As far as I understand it, both LEO and KOINOS have a plan to do all or most of the above. I don't know about Hive.
That's the point, though. It really is not a sustainable model to have such an expensive overhead without some kind of data selling or advertising. Otherwise, investors ain't gunna be interested.
Hate to break it to you @cryptoctopus, but...the current model is deliberately and specifically designed to promote AGAINST the concept of investing you are referring to, thereby freeing up a larger quantity of voting stake for a larger quantity of smaller players, thus resulting in a more consistent and happier growth pattern overall -- with regard to quantity of active users. The average blogger isn't powering down. They're just watching that shit grow. And telling their friends.
And with this in mind, if there ISN'T a larger game plan to harvest our blood for something later, such as advertisers, I'd be surprised, and also disappointed. Cuz that's what I'd do. Or some other function that brings in the attention of larger investors. Such as using the user as a data mines or something. Anyway, I am sure they've got a game plan. And I'm certain that's it. It's the only one that makes sense.
I agree. Although, I do think hive is thinking longer term and bigger picture than it has in the past. The value of the HBD has gone up, and partly due to the fact that they have changed how posts are curated, and more decentralized. It's smart. It's a smart move -- assuming there is a long term plan for all the new users that join. And I'm sure there is.
I dunno. I disagree. I think the only way to get influencers in here is marketing to them. If they knew about it, they'd be here. Period. They would bring their followers as well. I think we want them here, but we also are only so big and can handle only so much at this point.
We gotta grow incrementally, imho.
I've only been posting for a few months, so I have no idea how things were during the Steemit days.
All I know is that with over 400 Layer 2 tokens branching from Hive there are winners and losers. Regarding the winners, people staking those tokens believe in the projects attached to those tokens. Compared to returns to be made elsewhere, maybe elsewhere is better; even so, ROI is just one reason why those people stake their tokens.
Just at LeoFinance, I keep reading about projects such as SPK Network and Project BLANK (name to be determined later). SPK network is meant to be a censorship-resistant multimedia platform, and we all know how much something like that is needed. Project BLANK is supposed to be a microblogging platform closer to Twitter in features and functionality. At the moment Hive has alternatives to SPK Network and Project BLANK, but these are supposed to bring it to another level. That's the impression I get from the buzz around these projects, so over timr we will see if the buzz is deserved.
By now it's obvious that Splinterlands has given Hive a massive boost the last 2 months or more. It's become the number 1 ranked game in all of crypto even as Hive flies beneath the radar ar 205 out of 9468 cryptos listed on CoinGecko (which puts Hive at the top 2.2% of all cryptos listed there). Play2Earn is a big deal, and Hive can capitalize on that to find a way to gain greater visibility for the rest of the ecosystem. After all, how many Splinterlands players even know about the Hive ecosystem and blogging platforms? If they know, do they even care? And does that matter for us?
The team at PIZZA is investing heavily into blockchain gaming, including getting that token integrated with another Hive game, Rising Star. Known for being "just" an engagement token, PIZZA is involved in a number of projects which are expected to bring income and new accounts.
Each person has his or her reasons for investing in HIVE or LEO as investors first and participants second. Just from my perspective as a new Hiver, though, it looks to me as if all the action is at Layer 2. I'm the wrong person to consult regarding "dollars and cents" and APR and ROI, but it looks as there there are some worthwhile projects which can benefit from an injection of income to accelerate their development before they can go online.
18 months after Independence Day for Hive, there are more tribes and projects than existed during the Steemit days. Having HIVE locked up for 13 weeks before being totally unstaked is a big minus no matter who we are. However, Hive has to have something worthwhile about it to keep people at Hive even with that major drawback. Maybe the solution isn't at Hive's base layer but rather at Layer 2. If LEO isn't justifying ROI, there could be some undervalued Layer 2 token which could provide good ROI provided it has what it needs to take off.
That's just my 2 Sats.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
If you just want yield I recommend utopis, bro, index, and dhedge on Tribaldex.
Stroll through hive and hive engine wallets look at payouts. About 1400 utopis nets you about 20 hive a week plus additional layer 2 tokens. You don't have to stake them but you get a 10 percent bonus if you do.
The others payout in layer 2 tokens and are not staked.
This would provide yield without locking you up for 13 weeks.
You can also put hbd in savings and earn 10 percent a month. Savings take 3 days to unlock.
You can do all this for far less than 55k. Then you can decide what percentage of your yield you want to harvest and what you want to reinvest if anything.
Anyway, welcome back @cryptoctopus.
I think he knows where to find yield. He is just asking why he should invest his pennies here, as opposed to the OTHER places that have a more reliable, consistent growth, to farm his yield.
At the end of the day, I don't care. If anyone doesn't like this project, pick one you like.
I'm ride or die.
I'd sure like to see some engagement on this question. I've dropped it in the Leo page. I'll hunt around and see who else wants to comment, later on. When I'm back from work. LOL.
I think it's way more complex than what you've outlined.
How did you get a negative yield of -75.45%? You're not losing any of additional investment... are you comparing it to another yield generator?
There are additional benefits to Hive... do you need content created or help with other projects that you could fund with upvotes? Are there things you'd want to build on this decentralized blockchain that could be funded (partially or fully) by the DAO?
Obviously you're aware that other people could also upvote you which may result in potentially more than $13,500 in 90 days.
There's also all the community tokens... so if you were voting other people and they were voting you... you might also receive LEO tokens or POB tokens, etc, which would also (hopefully) increase in value over time.
The negative yield would be that I would have turn 1BTC ($55K) into $13,500 by buying delegation from 90 days delegation from blocktrades.
If you are an investor who want to add capital to a project, HIVE seems to be the worst choice to get a yield. It locks your money away for 13 weeks, you have to be super active to "maybe" make money and when the market turns and you need to lock in your gains or prevent loss, you are roadkill for 3 months.
Ah I see, I understand now.
You could just put your BTC into HBD and put it into Savings to earn 10% if that's what you're after. Withdrawing funds from the savings account takes 3 days.
I'm not sure Hive is really designed for yield. It's a decentralized social media platform. It's to help people become financially independent and to help developers use blockchain technology without fees.