Everyone who is interested in crypto currencies is asking the same question these days: will crypto currency prices rise again? My personal opinion is that the crypto currenccies will start to rise again. Of course, I don't know when the downward trend in prices will end and when the prices will begin to rise.
We look at history when we intend to make a prediction about future events. Have there been any similar incident in the past? How did the incident end? Of course there are people who think that the future can never be predicted. I believe the future can be predicted partially.
Have there been other technologies in the past that created the excitement like block chain in markets? The best examples I can think of are the railways and the internet.
Railway Mania
In the 1840s, there was a railway madness in England. The world's first Intercity Railway Route opened in 1830 between Liverpool and Mancaster. The railway proved to be highly successful for transporting both passengers and freight. The value of current railway company stocks rose rapidly due to falling interest rates. In the following period, many new railway companies were established. Because of the high investment in the sector, almost everyone who invested money in the sector was earning. At the end of 1845, when the British Central Bank raised interest rates, the investment in railroads stopped almost overnight. Many small companies had to stop their jobs because of the funding cut. Many families in the middle class lost a large portion of their family fortune. As a result, the British railways system quickly expanded in a short period of time. A total of 6,220 miles (10,010 km) of railway line were built as a result of projects authorised between 1844 and 1846 – by comparison, the total route mileage of the modern UK railway network is around 11,000 miles (18,000 km).
Painting by A.B.Clayton, Liverpool Mancester Railway Opening, 1830
Dot.com Balloon
Between 1990 and 1997, the number of households used internet in the United States increased from 15% to 35%, and the computer is no longer considered a luxury device. Almost everyone accepted that the economy was dominated by information technologies. Low interest rates and reduced taxes in 1997 created a favorable environment for investing in equities. In such an environment invertors have become willing to invest in all companies that end up with COM. Investment companies that made huge money from Inicial public offerings encouraged their customers who wanted to invest in technology. Rising stock prices also raised expectations for the future. Between 1995 and 2000, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 400%. In 1999, S&P 500 equities rose 19.5%, while Nasdaq equities rose 85.6%. Many dot.com companies made big advertising investments to grow fast. It was believed that operational losses would be compensated over time.
In February 2000, Alan Greenspan, Head of the FED, announced he would aggressively raise interest rates. This statement has led to a surge in stock prices, it was not yet clear whether technology shares would be affected by this interest rate rise. On March 10, 2000, the NASDAQ technology index saw its historic peak with 5048 points. On November 7, 2000, pets.com supported by Amazon terminated its operation after its 9-month activity. At that time, most of the internet company equities was 75% lower than the peak point, and the value of $ 1,755 trillion was evaporated. September 11, 2001 attacks accelerated the fall in equity prices. When the price drops ended in 2002, from the peak, the loss of technology shares reached $ 5 trillion. This level pointed to a 78% drop from the peak.
The Nasdaq Composite Index Between 1994 and 2005
It was seen over the years that this great wave of excitement in technology companies was not in vain. Over time the technology sector has gained stability and companies like eBay, Amazon.com and Google have experienced significant increases in value. Today, technology companies grow much faster than the companies in other industries, and are valued at larger price gain multipliers than other companies.
We have seen with historical examples that groundbreaking new technologies create a great deal of turbulence in the field of Finance. Do you think the block chain is as important as the railroads or the internet? I believe so. I have shared my views on this subject in the following article.
A lesson from past experiences is that interest rates are very important in the valuation of technology shares. In both cases, the interest rate decisions of the respective Central Bank were one of the key factors that started and ended the price rise. What about interest rates these days?
The Fed is raising interest rates in parallel with the strong US economy. However, it is important to note that the last year's crypto currency value increases took place in a climate where this situation is known.
Bitcoin prices, which are the determinants of the prices of all of the crypto money, have recently developed as follows. Its similality with NASDAQ index prices draws attention.
There is a report called Gartner Hype Cycle, published annually by research company Gartner. According to the systematic behind this report, every new technology goes through five phases and becomes a mainstream technology.
Innovation trigger: It is the first stage of technological phenomenon. At this stage, it is not known where technology will go, and it is not yet clear whether it will turn into a commercial product.
Peak of inflated expectations: Technology is in the early launch phase. While there are a number of failed product development stories, some companies have begun to take action on technology.
Trough of dissillusionment: It is the stage in which some technology companies fail with a few unsuccessful attempts. Remaining companies continue their R & D activities and investments.
Slope of Enlightenment : It is the stage in which the benefits of technology to everyday life are understood. The foundations of second and third generation products have been established. Pilot applications have been started in some cautious customers.
Plateau of productivity: Continuous adaptation process is the beginning. The criteria for the products provided are clear. It is where technology becomes a product. Return on investment for the technology-producing company. Started to provide benefits for the customers.
In the report released by Gartner in July 2017, block-chain technology was shown at the "Peak Of Inflated Expectation" stage. The curve on the chart is similar to the price curve of Bitcoin.
CONCLUSION
I believe in block-chain technology's future. I think that a technology that has reached this stage will continue to be valid just as toothpaste does not come back after it leaves the toothpaste tube. I know I didn't answer the critical questions in my statements. Which crypto currency should we invest in? What is the best price level for investment? The answers to these questions will determine the results that are obtained. Right now, all the crypto currencies are based on Bitcoin. Over time, it will become more important to decide which currency to invest.
I hope that our community, who believes in the blockchain revolution and invested in, sees the prices are starting to rise again.
Thanks for reading.
Sources: https://www.wikipedia.org/ and https://pixabay.com
Kripto Para Fiyatları Yeniden Yükselişe Geçecek Mi?
Bugünlerde kripto para dünyasıyla ilgili olan herkes aynı soruyu soruyor: Kripto para fiyatları yeniden yükselişe geçecek mi? Kişisel görüşüm kripto paraların yeniden yükselişe geçeceği yönünde. Fiyatlardaki düşüş trendinin ne zaman sona ereceğini ve fiyatların tam olarak ne zaman yükseleceğini elbette bilmiyorum.
Gelecekte gerçekleşecek bir olayla ilgili tahmin yaparken genel bir kural olarak geçmişe bakıyoruz. Geçmişte benzer bir olay yaşanmış mı? Yaşanan olay nasıl sonuçlanmış? Elbette geleceğin hiçbir şekilde tahmin edilmeyeceğini düşünen insanlar da var. Ben geleceğin kısmen tahmin edilebileceğine inanıyorum.
Geçmişte piyasalarda blok zinciri teknolojisinin yarattığı heyecanı yaratan başka teknolojiler oldu mu? Aklıma gelen en iyi örnekler tren yolları ve internet.
Trenyolu Çılgınlığı
1840'larda İngiltere'de bir tren yolu çılgınlığı yaşandı. Dünyanın ilk şehirlerarası tren yolu Liverpool ve Mancaster şehirleri arasında 1830 yılında hizmete girdi. Hem yolcu, hem yük taşımak konusunda çok başarılı olan bu tren yolu ile demiryolu taşımacılığı rüştünü ispatlamış oldu. Düşen faiz oranlarının da etkisiyle mevcut demiryolu hisselerinin değeri hızla yükseldi. Bunu izleyen dönemde çok sayıda yeni demiryolu şirketi kuruldu. Sektöre yapılan yüksek miktarda yatırımlar sayesinde para yatıran hemen herkes kazanıyordu. 1845 yılının sonlarına doğru İngiltere Merkez Bankası faizleri yükseltince demiryollarına yapılan yatırım neredeyse bir gecede durdu. Birçok küçük şirket kesilen fonlama nedeniyle işlerini durdurmak zorunda kaldı. Orta sınıfta yer alan birçok aile servetlerinin büyük bir bölümünü kaybetti. Sonuç olarak İngiliz demiryolları sistemi kısa bir süre içinde hızla genişlemiş oldu. 1844 ile 1846 yılları arasına verilen lisanslarla 10.010 km demiryolu yapıldı. Bir karşılaştırma yapmak gerekirse bugün İngiltere'nin toplam demiryolu ağı uzunluğu 18.000 km'dir.
Dot.com Balonu
1990 ile 1997 yılları arasında ABD'de internet kullanılan hane sayısı %15'den %35'e yükseldi ve bilgisayar artık lüks bir cihaz sayılmamaya başladı. Bilgi çağında ekonominin enformasyon teknolojileri tarafından domine edildiğini artık hemen herkes kabul ediyordu. Düşük faiz oranları ve 1997 yılında düşürülen vergiler hisse senetlerine yatırım için uygun ortam oluşturdu. Böylesi bir ortamda yatırımcılar sonu ".com" ile biten tüm şirketlere yatırım yapmaya istekli hale geldiler. Birincil halka arzlardan büyük paralar kazanan yatırım şirketleri teknoloji yatırımı yapmak isteyen müşterilerini cesaretlendirdi. Hızla yükselen hisse senedi fiyatları gelecekle ilgili beklentilerini de yükseltti. 1995 ile 200o yılları arasında Nasdaq birleşik teknoloji hisseleri endeksi %400 arttı. Fiyat kazanç oranları 200'ü aşarak tarihi bir rekor kırdı. 1999 yılında S&P 500 hisse senetleri %19,5 artarken, Nasdaq hisse senetleri %85,6 arttı. Birçok dot.com şirketi hızlı büyümek adına büyük reklam yatırımları yaptılar. Gerçekleşen operasyonel zararların zaman içinde fazlasıyla telafi edileceğine inanılıyordu.
2000 yılının Şubat ayında dönemin FED başkanı Alan Greenspan faizleri agresif bir biçimde yükselteceğini açıkladı. Bu açıklama hisse senedi fiyatlarında dalgalanmaya yol açtı, teknoloji hisselerinin bu faiz yükselişinden etkilenip etkilenmeyeceği henüz belli değildi. 10 Mart 2000 tarihinde Nasdaq teknoloji endeksi 5048 puanla tarihi zirvesini gördü. 7 Kasım 2000 tarihinde pets.com isimli Amazon.com tarafından desteklenen site 9 aylık faaliyetinin ardından operasyonunu sonlandırdı. O tarihte çoğu internet hissesi zirve noktasına göre %75 aşağıdaydı ve 1,755 trilyon dolarlık değer buharlaşmış durumdaydı. 11 Eylül 2001 saldırıları hisse fiyatlarındaki düşüşü hızlandırdı. 2002 yılında fiyat düşüşleri sonra erdiğinde zirve noktasına göre teknoloji hisseleri zararı 5 trilyon dolara ulaşmıştı. Bu seviye zirve noktasına göre %78 oranında bir düşüşe işaret ediyordu.
The Nasdaq Composite Index between 1994 and 2005
Yıllar içinde teknoloji şirketlerinde yaşanan bu büyük heyecan dalgasının boşuna olmadığı görüldü. Zamanla teknoloji sektörü istikrar kazandı ve eBay, Amazon.com, Google gibi şirketler büyük değer artışları yaşadılar. Bugün teknoloji şirketleri diğer sektörlerdeki şirketlere göre çok daha hızlı büyüyor ve diğer şirketlere kıyasla daha büyük fiyat kazanç çarpanlarıyla değerleniyor.
Çığır açan yeni teknolojilerin finans alanında büyük bir çalkantı yarattığını tarihsel örnekleriyle görmüş olduk. Acaba blok zinciri tren yolları ya da internet kadar önemli bir teknoloji mı? Ben öyle olduğuna inanıyorum. Bu konudaki görüşlerimi aşağıdaki yazımda paylaşmıştım.
Blok Zinciri Şişirilmiş Bir Balon mu?
Geçmiş tecrübelerin verdiği bir ders de teknoloji hisselerinin değerlemesinde faiz oranlarının çok önemli olduğu. Her iki örnekte de fiyat yükselişini başlatan ve sona erdiren önemli etmenlerden biri ilgili merkez bankasının faiz kararları olmuş. Bugünlerde faiz oranları %1,75 seviyesinde ve yükselmeye devam ediyor.
FED canlı ABD ekonomisine paralel olarak faizleri yükseltiyor. Ancak geçen yıl sonunda gerçekleşen kripto para değer artışlarının bu durumun bilindiği bir iklimde gerçekleştiğini not etmek gerekiyor.
Kripto paraların tümünün fiyatlarının belirleyicisi konumunda olan bitcoinin fiyatları son dönemde aşağıdaki gibi gelişmiş. Fiyat hareketinin dot.com balonundaki şekle benzerliği dikkat çekiyor.
Araştırma firması Gartner tarafından her yıl düzenli olarak yayınlanan Gartner Hype Cycle adında bir rapor var. Bu raporun ardındaki sistematiğe göre her yeni teknoloji beş aşamadan geçerek ana akım bir teknoloji haline geliyor.
Teknolojik Tetikleme: Teknolojik olgunun ilk çıkış aşamasıdır. Bu aşamada, teknolojinin nereye gideceği bilinmemektedir ve henüz ticari bir ürüne dönüşüp dönüşmeyeceği belli değildir.
Beklentilerin Tepe Noktası: Teknoloji erken lansman aşamasındadır. Bir dizi başarısız ürün geliştirme hikayeleri de bulunmakla birlikte bazı şirketler teknoloji ile ilgili aksiyonlar almaya başlamıştır.
Hayal Kırıklığı Oyuğu: Birkaç başarısız deneme ile bazı teknoloji şirketlerinin başarısızlığa uğradığı aşamadır. Kalan şirketler ar-ge çalışmalarına ve yatırımlarına devam eder.
Aydınlanma Eğimi: Teknolojinin günlük hayata olan faydasının anlaşılır olduğu aşamadır. İkinci ve üçüncü nesil ürünlerin temelleri oluşturulmuştur. Bazı temkinli müşterilerde pilot uygulamalara başlanmıştır.
Verimlilik Platosu: Aralıksız adaptasyon sürecinin başladığı aşamadır. Ürün sağlayıcısı için kriterler netleşmiştir. Teknolojinin ürün haline dönüştüğü noktadır. Teknoloji üreten firma için yatırım geri dönüşü, müşteriler için fayda sağlama aşaması başlamıştır.
Gartner tarafından Temmuz 2017'de yayınlanan raporda blok zinciri teknolojisi beklentilerin tepe noktasında gösterilmiş. Grafikteki eğrinin Bitcoin'in fiyat eğrisine benzemesi dikkat çekiyor.
SONUÇ
Blok zinciri teknolojisinin geleceğine inanıyorum. Nasıl ki diş macunu tüpünden çıktıktan sonra yeniden geri girmiyorsa bu aşamaya ulaşmış bir teknolojinin geçerliliğini sürdüreceğini düşünüyorum. Açıklamalarımda asıl kritik sorulara yanıt vermediğimin farkındayım. Hangi kripto paralara yatırım yapmalıyız? Yatırım için en uygun seviye ne? Bu soruların yanıtları elde edilen sonuçları belirleyecek. Şu anda tüm kripto paralar Bitcoin'e bağlı olarak hareket ediyor. Zamanla hangi kripto paraya yatırım yapıldığının daha önemli hale geleceğini düşünüyorum.
Umarım kripto para devrimine inanan ve bu konuya yatırım yapan topluluğumuz fiyatların yeniden yükselmeye başladığı zamanları bir an önce görür.
Okuduğunuz için teşekkür ederim.
absotely! this year will see a market price rise again, just be patient it's hust too early for that
We have seen a healthy correction this past few days that will eventually rise again. There is small bubble made from last year that many people thought it was an easy get rich scheme. There are still many problem on the blockchain that needed to be solved. A 20k per bitcoin is an overprice when you have so much problem. I believe as time goes by it will eventually grow for the better and the price will go on it. Still not to be worried about the price the valuable is what we need to consider not the price.
We're in a bear trend bud, deal with it bulls. Do something else, rest for a year while bitcoin slumps. More opportunity awaits, more time to learn, more time to refresh your body and mind from checking your porfolio, better prices to buy at are coming.
2019 will be THE year.
Also another good thing would be if price of bitcoin miners weren't so overpriced then more people would actually mine bitcoin which would increase the popularity of bitcoin further and thus the price.
Right said it was a bubble that Bitcoins rise to 20K that's why correction much needed to make market stable. Also lot of hype and Forks happened which increased price last year but if we compare Bitcoin Price from 2017 Starting we already around in 5X profit so patience is key to success
I am pretty negative and don't think that is going to happen soon. In Korea, most of the people don't think it will rise. We are tired of the negative policy by the government. And there are people who manipulate the price. We are losing our patience.
no worries boizz crypto will rise and shine no problem.
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McAfee and others with something on the line for big price predictions might be just a little bit worried!
Harikasın reis
Its high time to take advantage of the low price of BTC, lets buy some and surely soon it will rise again.
Not only BTC is worth investing in, opportunity to buy also encloses the sometimes forgotten altcoins.
@elcoincenter
we are goin back up soon
I think the price of a lot of crypto will rise again, but I do not think we will see the dramatic growth we saw in 2017 ever again. Maybe in some cryptocurrencies, but not in the sense where everything was skyrocketing in value.
We need to be patient, keep calm and HODL.
And if you want to trade, you should know what you are doing. Follow the rules of your trading system and never trade with emotions like fear and greed.
HODL is practical only from the bottom to the top, not the other way. Learn market cycles.
Sure, it will surely comes up again.
I think some cryptos will fail. I'm bullish on Steem long term though.
Steem needs to develop some ecommerce applications though. You should be able to buy stuff with steem to make it a proper economy - but we appear to be far away from that at the moment.
https://thesteemitshop.com/
no diggity doubt
Blockchain definitely has a bright future. Cryptocurrencies aswell, eventhough the first bubble may have bursted, the price will raise again. Maybe not as sharply as it did, but in a more sustainable and healthy growth.
And obviously not all of them will success, but that's the main part of an investor job to do research on where to invest and why. Don't follow the herd, do your research and invest in project you would actually like to use in the future (aka not just for quick buck) and you'll find the right blockchains to invest in.
Thid is not the 1sr bubble. Weve had similar in the past. Look at long term
I hope that to be soon i just put some money in crypto
Thank you. Higher interest rates have an negative effect for cryptocurrencies, but with this amount of debt accumulated the US will have problems to pay rates in the near future.
The future is bright for Bitcoin .
I Think Crypto Currency Prices Rise very soon.
if the micro charts are an indicator of the movements over a larger period of time, then I believe we are coming to an adjustment that will be 20% higher than the peak experienced earlier in the fiscal year.
but this is all just predictions, it all depends on the platform users habits.
Hocam kripto piyasası henüz Dot com kadar şişmedi. Dot com 10 trilyon dolarlara kadar market cap'e çıkmıştı, Bitcoin maksimum 600 milyar dolarlara uğradı, şimdi ise çok altında. Balonsa da hala yolu var diye inanıyorum.
Fiyatlamalar her zaman balon olabilir, bu balonu şişiren insanlardır zaten. Değeri de insanblar belirler. Balon olmayan şey burada yatan teknolojidir. Blockchain'in geleceği şekillendireceği çok aşikar. Ben de buna gönülden inanıyorum. Ama tabii, yatırım olarak düşününce fiyatlama nasıl olur emin değilim. Yine de geleceği şekillendirecek bir teknolojinin ucuzlasa dahi henüz yolun çok başında olduğu ve her zaman kendini yenileyeceğini düşündüğüm için henüz yapacağı zirvelere çok uzağız diye düşünüyorum.
Great article. Yes, it does feel like we are in the "Trough of Disillusionment". Now, or whenever the bottom of the trough is, is actually the best time to invest. But human psychology is to stay away and only invest when the market is hot.
I guess what adds to the issue is price manipulation. There's an investigation happening by the government right now about how much the markets have been manipulated. And there is a paper out claiming that the bulk of bitcoin gains last year came from tether manipulating the market to prevent lows for bitcoin. If that winds up being very true, the market may have a more serious problem.
But even with that, I can't imagine that the institutional interest in crypto, and the mass exodus of talent from wall street, won't lead to some major investment once the dust settles.
به نظرم برای بیتکوین زود است که نابود شود اما باید قبول کنیم که در این عرصه افرادی حضور دارند که فقط به فکر کنافع خود هستند و میخواهند از ضرر دیگران سود کنند و با دستکارب قیمت یک اقتصاد مربض را به صنعت کریپتو تحمیل کنند که امکان جذب حداکثری افراد و فراگیر شدن را از این صنعت میگیرد و
Congratulations @muratkbesiroglu!
Your post was mentioned in the Steemit Hit Parade in the following categories:
The price mania is gone while the technology will mature and go mainstream. When bitcoin goes below 5000, then all the funds start liquidating and shouldn't be surprised if we see July 2017 lows
It would seem that the fairly recent and continued downward pressure on Bitcoin and others top cryptocurrencies has caused US regulatory bodies to take notice. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), for example, has launched and investigation into four major exchanges for possible market manipulation. This of course has much to do with futures trading. The question is, if futures become heavily regulated, restricted, or eliminated, will the markets perform in a more realistic fashion?
Thanks for the post.
I genuinely can't comprehend a world where crypto-currencies wouldn't flourish. Not in the foreseeable future. We all use electronic currency as it is already. Blockchain is just a more thorough and efficient technology. What's the argument against crypto? That "people" don't believe in it? That's it?
Thanks a lot for the great clarification and analysis. This must be shared and read by all the crypto community.
Yeah this is the question most steemians would like to know. Though my account is only several days off, I did saw how the price of both STEEM and SBD drops and frankly it's terrifying. I even saw several post lost a big amount of their payouts and its even worse for those who used bid bots. Hopefully we would see a rise in prices soon. Thanks a lot for the wonderful article. I learned a lot about some interesting facts about the rise and fall of prices and stocks.
then trump will leave america
👍😎
I think it will! definetly. so this is aa good time to buy, aint it ? maybe you check The best Crypto Exchanges 2018 and find out where to buy your favourite cryptocurrency!
thanks for sharing, i have strong faith that cryptos will increase, i muist admit i enjoyed they rate they got to as of last December and January
I think that blockchain will be the best in near future and will be high valuable in the world. Really it was a big achievement at present and it will sustainable development in our technology. it will change our lifestyle in economics and monetary system.The world have already seen the picture of future in this technology. I hope blockchain give us very easy and sustainable life than present situation. Stay with me.
seems to be the thing with crypto, its not a get rich quick investment, im certain it will rise back and better
Thanks for a great write-up.
The connection of the crypto to the dot-com boom of the 1990's sounds quite interesting. One difference I can point to is that the adoption ratio relative to the potential user base is quite low at this point - unlike that for the Internet by the end of the 1990's.
nothing is impossible my freinds if president trump can wear yoga streching pants so will bitcoin take over the trade
😃
Cryptocurrency will absolutely rise again, actually much more than it has achieved from the high in December. Crypto is but a lil baby at the moment and once the capitalization increases to 10 tens what it is worth now the people that are not yet in the game are the ones that are going to boost the market. Chilax and keep the faith in crypto and you will be duly rewarded if you are in it for the investment. Another reason it will rise it that it is a far superior and quicker method of payment and accounting. Wait for the rise. Invest what you can afford and boy are you going to be happy if you just leave it until the turn. Heita Da!!!
Interesting blog thanks..
i still have a lot to learn about crypto currency
Hey..... follow my blogs to get updated with ICO reviews
Okay, thanks
I am a little "shocked" too about the Steem worth development from the last 3 month since i'm here on Steemit.
And hearing Steem was over 7 U$ in 2017 is even crazier...
I hope Steem goes back up to over 2 € in July &
than keeps on rising to new heights :)
C'mon Steem ;)
Thank you for sharing this information, Blockchain has future in the currency financial world, we only need to view markers..
Well written article and it kept my interest & attention! Upvoted & followed!
Thank you for this wonderful information.
👍🤠
nice train of thought
we need to wait for some time crypto will rise soon
Of course price of cryptocurrencies such as a Bitcoin will grow up
Your post has been very nice. I hope you will be with us by posting better.
Indian govt. is not in the support of cryptocurrency. so, there is a negtive perception in India about cryptocurrency.
This situation will definitely change , actually started changing in positive direction already , so we Indians are also expecting great future of our Economy.
i am so happy to know your perception
hi there!!!!
as you know all markets are being manipulated, but i think sooner or later the prices will rise again.
blockchain is a new technology, when this technology be well established nobody will stop us.
good luck!!!
have a great day!!!
It really feel down when saw the price drop. But crypto will definitely valid as it is a future thing and we do believe it is just a short fall.
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:)
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i think so it will grow again
Prices of cryptocurrencies are on the rise again :)
That's good news for us Miners, cos the coins we mine will rise in value, so we're sitting on assets that appreciate over time.
Is this a snapshot from 365 days ago? :)